Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.69
- ▸Attractively valued
IQV · Why this verdict
Why IQVIA Holdings (IQV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
IQVIA offers an attractively priced franchise with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and exceptional free cash flow conversion, but a confirmed technical breakdown and negative price momentum mean fundamental quality and chart reality are in direct conflict, warranting patience before adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average upside surprise of approximately 1.5%, pointing to disciplined guidance and reliable near-term delivery. Earnings | The beat streak extends to five or more consecutive quarters while the average surprise remains above 1% per period. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average beat has been modest at roughly 1.5%, leaving little cushion if underlying demand softens; a single miss after an extended streak tends to provoke outsized multiple compression. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.6x and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.72, the shares screen as attractively valued relative to their growth profile, offering a meaningful discount versus expectations. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple re-rates toward the sector median over 12 months as the technical overhang clears. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap multiples can persist or compress further when price momentum is negative and the stock sits below its long-term moving average; value without a near-term catalyst is a waiting game. | ||
Free cash flow represents 156% of reported net income, indicating the business converts earnings into cash at a well-above-average rate and that reported profits are supported by real cash generation. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion remains above 100% over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.6; a meaningful share of that free cash flow is directed toward debt service rather than shareholder returns or reinvestment, limiting what is truly available. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed death-cross pattern and falling on-balance volume, signaling that price momentum is firmly negative and that distribution by sellers is ongoing. Warnings | A sustained reclaim of the 200-day moving average for at least four consecutive weeks on rising volume would indicate the breakdown has reversed. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical deterioration does not impair the underlying business; if fundamentals remain intact the setup becomes increasingly attractive the deeper the drawdown extends. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average upside surprise of approximately 1.5%, pointing to disciplined guidance and reliable near-term delivery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to five or more consecutive quarters while the average surprise remains above 1% per period.
CounterThe average beat has been modest at roughly 1.5%, leaving little cushion if underlying demand softens; a single miss after an extended streak tends to provoke outsized multiple compression.
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.6x and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.72, the shares screen as attractively valued relative to their growth profile, offering a meaningful discount versus expectations.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple re-rates toward the sector median over 12 months as the technical overhang clears.
CounterCheap multiples can persist or compress further when price momentum is negative and the stock sits below its long-term moving average; value without a near-term catalyst is a waiting game.
Free cash flow represents 156% of reported net income, indicating the business converts earnings into cash at a well-above-average rate and that reported profits are supported by real cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion remains above 100% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterThe company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.6; a meaningful share of that free cash flow is directed toward debt service rather than shareholder returns or reinvestment, limiting what is truly available.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed death-cross pattern and falling on-balance volume, signaling that price momentum is firmly negative and that distribution by sellers is ongoing.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- A sustained reclaim of the 200-day moving average for at least four consecutive weeks on rising volume would indicate the breakdown has reversed.
CounterTechnical deterioration does not impair the underlying business; if fundamentals remain intact the setup becomes increasingly attractive the deeper the drawdown extends.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 2.6 |
| Op margin | 5.4 |
| Net margin | 4.2 |
| Current ratio | 3.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 156% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.9 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 5.7 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 2.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $130
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.6>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.64
Upside
+8.5%
Downside
13.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 26d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.64 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Value at 7.0, and Momentum at 5.6; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Peer rank at 4.5, and Growth at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average upside surprise of approximately 1.5%, pointing to disciplined guidance and reliable near-term delivery.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.6x and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.72, the shares screen as attractively valued relative to their growth profile, offering a meaningful discount versus expectations.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x without a corresponding upward revision to earnings estimates.
- P3Free cash flow represents 156% of reported net income, indicating the business converts earnings into cash at a well-above-average rate and that reported profits are supported by real cash generation.
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 100% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed death-cross pattern and falling on-balance volume, signaling that price momentum is firmly negative and that distribution by sellers is ongoing.
Trip ifStock closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 or more consecutive weeks on above-average volume.