Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.67
- ▸Attractively valued
INTU · Why this verdict
Why Intuit (INTU) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Intuit's wide economic moat, 22% net margins, Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and four consecutive earnings beats averaging 22.2% upside support a long-term case with 60.4% implied upside to analyst targets; however, a severe technical breakdown — momentum scoring 1.6 out of 10, confirmed death cross, falling on-balance volume, and a put/call ratio of 2.07 — constitutes a firm technical barrier to new entries and requires a meaningful recovery before the fundamental case can be acted on.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With approximately 59% of revenue tied to the Global Business Solutions segment, the business faces meaningful single-segment concentration risk; a competitive or cyclical pressure on this segment would disproportionately impair reported results at the group level. Bear case | Global Business Solutions segment contribution falling below 50% of total revenue as other segments grow would indicate portfolio diversification is progressing and reducing reliance on this single driver. | →Stable |
| CounterConcentration in a large, fast-growing segment with a wide economic moat can reflect market leadership rather than structural fragility; the moat designation suggests the competitive position in this segment is durable. | ||
A wide economic moat, 22% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and four consecutive earnings beats averaging 22.2% upside demonstrate that this franchise has compounded returns across multiple business cycles and consistently outperforms its own guidance. Quality breakdown | Net margins remaining above 18% and the earnings beat streak extending to a fifth quarter over the next 12 months would confirm the compounding quality thesis remains intact. | →Stable |
| CounterNearly 60% of revenue is concentrated in the Global Business Solutions segment; any slowdown in that segment could disproportionately compress margins and end the beat streak, particularly if competitive pricing pressure intensifies in the core market. | ||
Momentum scores 1.6 out of 10, the stock has declined 10.0% on a 200-MA basis over 30 days, and a confirmed death cross with falling on-balance volume collectively constitute a comprehensive technical deterioration that blocks new entries regardless of fundamental strength. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaiming and holding above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, with on-balance volume turning upward, would constitute the technical recovery needed to clear the entry barrier. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-quality franchises with strong earnings momentum can recover technically following sharp drawdowns; if the next earnings release continues the beat streak, the technical picture can improve rapidly from a depressed base. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.07 — more than twice as many puts as calls outstanding — reflects heavily bearish institutional options positioning; the breadth of defensive hedging suggests sophisticated market participants are actively protecting against further downside. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio falling below 1.0 over 2 consecutive weeks would signal a rotation away from bearish hedging and indicate that options sentiment has shifted to neutral. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios in high-quality names can mark sentiment extremes ahead of reversals; if the business continues to beat earnings, bearish options positioning may simply expire worthless as the stock recovers. | ||
With the stock trading 60.4% below the analyst consensus price target of $451.99, the absolute discount between market price and assessed value is substantial; for holders with a sufficient time horizon, this gap represents meaningful recovery potential should the technical and sentiment headwinds resolve. Price targets | The analyst consensus target remaining above $400.00 over the next 12 months would confirm that fundamental recognition of the franchise has not eroded despite the technical weakness. | →Stable |
| CounterIf earnings estimates are cut materially and the consensus target falls below $310.00, implied upside shrinks below 10% from the current price of $281.77, undermining the case that the stock is meaningfully discounted to fair value. | ||
With approximately 59% of revenue tied to the Global Business Solutions segment, the business faces meaningful single-segment concentration risk; a competitive or cyclical pressure on this segment would disproportionately impair reported results at the group level.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Global Business Solutions segment contribution falling below 50% of total revenue as other segments grow would indicate portfolio diversification is progressing and reducing reliance on this single driver.
CounterConcentration in a large, fast-growing segment with a wide economic moat can reflect market leadership rather than structural fragility; the moat designation suggests the competitive position in this segment is durable.
A wide economic moat, 22% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and four consecutive earnings beats averaging 22.2% upside demonstrate that this franchise has compounded returns across multiple business cycles and consistently outperforms its own guidance.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remaining above 18% and the earnings beat streak extending to a fifth quarter over the next 12 months would confirm the compounding quality thesis remains intact.
CounterNearly 60% of revenue is concentrated in the Global Business Solutions segment; any slowdown in that segment could disproportionately compress margins and end the beat streak, particularly if competitive pricing pressure intensifies in the core market.
Momentum scores 1.6 out of 10, the stock has declined 10.0% on a 200-MA basis over 30 days, and a confirmed death cross with falling on-balance volume collectively constitute a comprehensive technical deterioration that blocks new entries regardless of fundamental strength.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaiming and holding above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, with on-balance volume turning upward, would constitute the technical recovery needed to clear the entry barrier.
CounterHigh-quality franchises with strong earnings momentum can recover technically following sharp drawdowns; if the next earnings release continues the beat streak, the technical picture can improve rapidly from a depressed base.
A put/call ratio of 2.07 — more than twice as many puts as calls outstanding — reflects heavily bearish institutional options positioning; the breadth of defensive hedging suggests sophisticated market participants are actively protecting against further downside.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falling below 1.0 over 2 consecutive weeks would signal a rotation away from bearish hedging and indicate that options sentiment has shifted to neutral.
CounterElevated put/call ratios in high-quality names can mark sentiment extremes ahead of reversals; if the business continues to beat earnings, bearish options positioning may simply expire worthless as the stock recovers.
With the stock trading 60.4% below the analyst consensus price target of $451.99, the absolute discount between market price and assessed value is substantial; for holders with a sufficient time horizon, this gap represents meaningful recovery potential should the technical and sentiment headwinds resolve.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus target remaining above $400.00 over the next 12 months would confirm that fundamental recognition of the franchise has not eroded despite the technical weakness.
CounterIf earnings estimates are cut materially and the consensus target falls below $310.00, implied upside shrinks below 10% from the current price of $281.77, undermining the case that the stock is meaningfully discounted to fair value.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 6.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 4.1 |
Momentum
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 86%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $252,217 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Above max pain $200
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 186.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:7.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
7.13
Upside
+71.3%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 21, MACD bearish
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (8.0) with weak momentum (1.4)
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:7.1>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.3; weakest: Momentum at 1.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Quality at 8.0, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 1.4, Peer rank at 4.2, and Growth at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A wide economic moat, 22% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and four consecutive earnings beats averaging 22.2% upside demonstrate that this franchise has compounded returns across multiple business cycles and consistently outperforms its own guidance.
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters, from the current 22%.
- P2Momentum scores 1.6 out of 10, the stock has declined 10.0% on a 200-MA basis over 30 days, and a confirmed death cross with falling on-balance volume collectively constitute a comprehensive technical deterioration that blocks new entries regardless of fundamental strength.
Trip ifPrice reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, with on-balance volume turning upward.
- P3A put/call ratio of 2.07 — more than twice as many puts as calls outstanding — reflects heavily bearish institutional options positioning; the breadth of defensive hedging suggests sophisticated market participants are actively protecting against further downside.
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 over 2 consecutive weeks, indicating a shift from bearish hedging to neutral positioning.
- P4With the stock trading 60.4% below the analyst consensus price target of $451.99, the absolute discount between market price and assessed value is substantial; for holders with a sufficient time horizon, this gap represents meaningful recovery potential should the technical and sentiment headwinds resolve.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target falls below $310.00, reducing implied upside below 10% from the current price of $281.77.
- P5With approximately 59% of revenue tied to the Global Business Solutions segment, the business faces meaningful single-segment concentration risk; a competitive or cyclical pressure on this segment would disproportionately impair reported results at the group level.
Trip ifGlobal Business Solutions segment contribution falls below 45% of total revenue, from the current 59%.