Value
9.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
INTR · Why this verdict
Why Inter & Co. (INTR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Inter & Co. screens among the most attractively valued names in its regional banking peer group — forward P/E of 5.6x, PEG of 0.15, and 43.1% upside to the analyst consensus target of $8.33 — while growing revenue at 25% year-over-year; the setup is blocked by a confirmed technical downtrend and a pattern of declining earnings estimates that, if not reversed, could erode the valuation advantage before the discount to intrinsic value closes.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 5.6x, PEG of 0.15, and 43.1% upside to the analyst consensus target of $8.33 from the current $5.82 represent a wide margin of safety relative to peers — the stock screens as the most attractively priced by P/E versus its regional banking peer set. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap should compress over 12 months if earnings estimates stabilize or improve; a forward P/E approaching 8x would represent meaningful re-rating progress toward peer parity. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates are trending downward; if revisions continue to fall, the forward P/E could expand toward 10x even without a price increase, reducing the apparent cheapness and weakening the value thesis before it has a chance to close. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates have been trending downward, creating a headwind against the valuation thesis; declining estimates during a period of strong revenue growth suggest margin or mix pressures that the top-line growth rate does not fully capture. Bear case | Earnings estimate revisions turning positive for 2 consecutive revision periods — indicating the downward revision cycle has ended — would remove the primary headwind to a re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterA 38% margin of safety and forward P/E of 5.6x already embed a significant earnings compression scenario; the stock may absorb continued estimate cuts without sustained price damage if the revenue growth trajectory remains intact. | ||
Revenue growing at 25% year-over-year positions this business as a high-growth financial institution at a valuation far below what comparable growth rates typically command in the peer group. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remaining above 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters would confirm the growth profile is sustainable and not approaching a near-term peak. | →Stable |
| CounterFour consecutive in-line quarters with an average EPS surprise of -0.18% suggest the market and management are tightly aligned on near-term outcomes, leaving limited room for positive earnings surprises to catalyze a re-rating driven by growth sentiment. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average (slope -2.0%/30 days) and has triggered a death-cross pattern that constitutes a firm technical barrier to new entries, despite rising on-balance volume indicating early accumulation below the surface. Engine gate (failed) | Price reclaiming and holding above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks would formally clear the technical barrier and restore entry eligibility. | →Stable |
| CounterThe slope of -2.0%/30 days is relatively shallow, and rising on-balance volume suggests buyers are accumulating at current levels — a configuration that historically precedes technical recoveries. | ||
All four recent quarters delivered results precisely in line with consensus estimates (average surprise -0.18%), demonstrating earnings predictability but leaving no positive surprise catalyst to narrow the 43.1% gap between market price and analyst-assessed intrinsic value. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeding 5% for 2 consecutive quarters would establish a positive beat pattern capable of catalyzing the re-rating that pure valuation cheapness alone has not yet triggered. | →Stable |
| CounterTight alignment between guidance and actual results may reflect conservative but reliable forecasting; a business that consistently meets estimates provides a predictable earnings stream that can attract long-horizon institutional buyers independently of beat catalysts. | ||
A forward P/E of 5.6x, PEG of 0.15, and 43.1% upside to the analyst consensus target of $8.33 from the current $5.82 represent a wide margin of safety relative to peers — the stock screens as the most attractively priced by P/E versus its regional banking peer set.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap should compress over 12 months if earnings estimates stabilize or improve; a forward P/E approaching 8x would represent meaningful re-rating progress toward peer parity.
CounterEarnings estimates are trending downward; if revisions continue to fall, the forward P/E could expand toward 10x even without a price increase, reducing the apparent cheapness and weakening the value thesis before it has a chance to close.
Analyst earnings estimates have been trending downward, creating a headwind against the valuation thesis; declining estimates during a period of strong revenue growth suggest margin or mix pressures that the top-line growth rate does not fully capture.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings estimate revisions turning positive for 2 consecutive revision periods — indicating the downward revision cycle has ended — would remove the primary headwind to a re-rating.
CounterA 38% margin of safety and forward P/E of 5.6x already embed a significant earnings compression scenario; the stock may absorb continued estimate cuts without sustained price damage if the revenue growth trajectory remains intact.
Revenue growing at 25% year-over-year positions this business as a high-growth financial institution at a valuation far below what comparable growth rates typically command in the peer group.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remaining above 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters would confirm the growth profile is sustainable and not approaching a near-term peak.
CounterFour consecutive in-line quarters with an average EPS surprise of -0.18% suggest the market and management are tightly aligned on near-term outcomes, leaving limited room for positive earnings surprises to catalyze a re-rating driven by growth sentiment.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average (slope -2.0%/30 days) and has triggered a death-cross pattern that constitutes a firm technical barrier to new entries, despite rising on-balance volume indicating early accumulation below the surface.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price reclaiming and holding above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks would formally clear the technical barrier and restore entry eligibility.
CounterThe slope of -2.0%/30 days is relatively shallow, and rising on-balance volume suggests buyers are accumulating at current levels — a configuration that historically precedes technical recoveries.
All four recent quarters delivered results precisely in line with consensus estimates (average surprise -0.18%), demonstrating earnings predictability but leaving no positive surprise catalyst to narrow the 43.1% gap between market price and analyst-assessed intrinsic value.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeding 5% for 2 consecutive quarters would establish a positive beat pattern capable of catalyzing the re-rating that pure valuation cheapness alone has not yet triggered.
CounterTight alignment between guidance and actual results may reflect conservative but reliable forecasting; a business that consistently meets estimates provides a predictable earnings stream that can attract long-horizon institutional buyers independently of beat catalysts.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.8 |
| EPS growth | 9.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 3.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 76%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 0.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.5 |
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.4 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 214.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:6.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
6.31
Upside
+52.8%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:6.3>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.7; weakest: Momentum at 2.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.7, Growth at 9.1, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Catalyst at 4.2, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A forward P/E of 5.6x, PEG of 0.15, and 43.1% upside to the analyst consensus target of $8.33 from the current $5.82 represent a wide margin of safety relative to peers — the stock screens as the most attractively priced by P/E versus its regional banking peer set.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x due to earnings estimate cuts, reducing the deep-value premium to peers.
- P2Revenue growing at 25% year-over-year positions this business as a high-growth financial institution at a valuation far below what comparable growth rates typically command in the peer group.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, from the current 25% rate.
- P3Analyst earnings estimates have been trending downward, creating a headwind against the valuation thesis; declining estimates during a period of strong revenue growth suggest margin or mix pressures that the top-line growth rate does not fully capture.
Trip ifEarnings estimates rise by more than 5% in 2 consecutive quarterly revision periods, confirming the downward trend has reversed.
- P4The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average (slope -2.0%/30 days) and has triggered a death-cross pattern that constitutes a firm technical barrier to new entries, despite rising on-balance volume indicating early accumulation below the surface.
Trip ifPrice reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5All four recent quarters delivered results precisely in line with consensus estimates (average surprise -0.18%), demonstrating earnings predictability but leaving no positive surprise catalyst to narrow the 43.1% gap between market price and analyst-assessed intrinsic value.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing the positive beat catalyst the in-line pattern has lacked.