Value
3.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| PEG | 1.1 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸PEG: 7.31
INSM · Why this verdict
Why Insmed (INSM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Analyst consensus implying roughly 83% price upside with a risk/reward ratio of nearly 11.8-to-1 reflects strong institutional conviction in this growth-stage biotech, but the business remains a substantial cash burner (free cash flow negative at 74% of revenue), concentrated in two products and a single supplier, and has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters before a single recent beat.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock sits about 83% below analyst consensus price targets, and the defined risk/reward ratio stands at nearly 11.8-to-1 in the investor's favor—passing the asymmetry threshold by a wide margin and reflecting high institutional conviction in the long-term growth trajectory. Price targets | The stock closes at least 40% of the gap to the $177.86 target within 12 months as commercial execution improves and analyst confidence is maintained. | →Stable |
| CounterA wide spread to consensus targets in a cash-burning biotech often reflects speculative optionality rather than near-term operational delivery; three prior quarters of earnings misses suggest analysts' optimism has repeatedly outpaced execution. | ||
A Rule of 40 score of 156 places the company in the upper tier of growth efficiency, yet free cash flow is negative at 74% of revenue—meaning the growth engine is running well above the Rule-of-40 threshold while the business continues to consume cash at a substantial rate. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow losses narrow over the next 4 quarters, with the FCF-to-revenue burn rate improving from -74% toward -40% as commercial revenue scales. | →Stable |
| CounterA Rule of 40 score based heavily on growth rather than profitability can mask a business that cannot self-fund; if revenue growth decelerates before cash consumption falls, the runway shortens materially. | ||
A death cross has formed but momentum sits at the floor of the passing threshold (5.5 against a 5.0 minimum) in a recovery pattern, with on-balance volume rising yet the stock remaining below its 200-day moving average at a flat slope—technically mixed, not a confirmed uptrend. Momentum breakdown | The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average within 9 months and the slope turns positive, confirming the momentum recovery signal and reducing technical risk. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross with a flat 200-day slope can reverse quickly in high-conviction growth biotechs; the rising on-balance volume and improving MACD suggest buyers are accumulating before the price confirmation arrives. | ||
Revenue is concentrated in two products (ARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI) and commercial delivery depends on a single supplier (the Lamira device)—a configuration where any one regulatory, supply, or competitive disruption could materially impair the business. Bear case | Pipeline diversification progresses over 12 months, with at least one additional product advancing to late-stage trials, reducing dependence on two products. | →Stable |
| CounterConcentration in two commercial-stage products is typical for a growth-stage biotech in the build phase; the risk becomes material only if one product faces a clinical or regulatory setback, which is not the current base case. | ||
The stock sits about 83% below analyst consensus price targets, and the defined risk/reward ratio stands at nearly 11.8-to-1 in the investor's favor—passing the asymmetry threshold by a wide margin and reflecting high institutional conviction in the long-term growth trajectory.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock closes at least 40% of the gap to the $177.86 target within 12 months as commercial execution improves and analyst confidence is maintained.
CounterA wide spread to consensus targets in a cash-burning biotech often reflects speculative optionality rather than near-term operational delivery; three prior quarters of earnings misses suggest analysts' optimism has repeatedly outpaced execution.
A Rule of 40 score of 156 places the company in the upper tier of growth efficiency, yet free cash flow is negative at 74% of revenue—meaning the growth engine is running well above the Rule-of-40 threshold while the business continues to consume cash at a substantial rate.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow losses narrow over the next 4 quarters, with the FCF-to-revenue burn rate improving from -74% toward -40% as commercial revenue scales.
CounterA Rule of 40 score based heavily on growth rather than profitability can mask a business that cannot self-fund; if revenue growth decelerates before cash consumption falls, the runway shortens materially.
A death cross has formed but momentum sits at the floor of the passing threshold (5.5 against a 5.0 minimum) in a recovery pattern, with on-balance volume rising yet the stock remaining below its 200-day moving average at a flat slope—technically mixed, not a confirmed uptrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average within 9 months and the slope turns positive, confirming the momentum recovery signal and reducing technical risk.
CounterA death cross with a flat 200-day slope can reverse quickly in high-conviction growth biotechs; the rising on-balance volume and improving MACD suggest buyers are accumulating before the price confirmation arrives.
Revenue is concentrated in two products (ARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI) and commercial delivery depends on a single supplier (the Lamira device)—a configuration where any one regulatory, supply, or competitive disruption could materially impair the business.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Pipeline diversification progresses over 12 months, with at least one additional product advancing to late-stage trials, reducing dependence on two products.
CounterConcentration in two commercial-stage products is typical for a growth-stage biotech in the build phase; the risk becomes material only if one product faces a clinical or regulatory setback, which is not the current base case.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -74% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: 156 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 91%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $35,247,365 (0.157% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.5 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.48
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
5.88
Upside
+72.1%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.88 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.9, and Momentum at 5.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.3, Peer rank at 2.9, and Catalyst at 3.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.88 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The stock sits about 83% below analyst consensus price targets, and the defined risk/reward ratio stands at nearly 11.8-to-1 in the investor's favor—passing the asymmetry threshold by a wide margin and reflecting high institutional conviction in the long-term growth trajectory.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $130, compressing implied upside below 35%.
- P2A Rule of 40 score of 156 places the company in the upper tier of growth efficiency, yet free cash flow is negative at 74% of revenue—meaning the growth engine is running well above the Rule-of-40 threshold while the business continues to consume cash at a substantial rate.
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive (FCF-to-revenue ratio rises above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters, resolving the cash burn concern.
- P3A death cross has formed but momentum sits at the floor of the passing threshold (5.5 against a 5.0 minimum) in a recovery pattern, with on-balance volume rising yet the stock remaining below its 200-day moving average at a flat slope—technically mixed, not a confirmed uptrend.
Trip ifStock reclaims its 200-day moving average and RSI rises above 55 for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the momentum recovery.
- P4Revenue is concentrated in two products (ARIKAYCE and BRINSUPRI) and commercial delivery depends on a single supplier (the Lamira device)—a configuration where any one regulatory, supply, or competitive disruption could materially impair the business.
Trip ifEither ARIKAYCE or BRINSUPRI receives a negative regulatory action or label restriction affecting commercial availability, sending the stock below $90.64.