Value
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.5 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.7x
- ▸PEG: 2.36
IBM · Why this verdict
Why International Business Machines (IBM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 5.5 |
| Net margin | 7.8 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 36%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 122% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.48 (n=5)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.5 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 4.7 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
| debt equity | 2.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $130
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(4)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.02
Upside
-0.1%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 28d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.02 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Quality at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Peer rank at 4.1, and Growth at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.