Value
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.4 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 33.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.70
- ▸Expensive valuation
HLT · Why this verdict
Why Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hilton operates a high-quality lodging franchise with consistent earnings delivery and strong price momentum, but the stock has moved above its near-term price target with a forward P/E of 33 times — the quality is real but the current setup is fully valued and the risk/reward does not favor adding new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of roughly 4 percentage points — a track record of consistent, modest outperformance that limits the risk of negative earnings surprises. Earnings | Quarterly EPS beats continue for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average beat is narrow at roughly 4 percentage points; any unexpected cost increase or demand softness could produce the first miss, resetting expectations and potentially triggering a de-rating from an already elevated multiple. | ||
The business sustains 30% net margins, passes the growth-efficiency test with a combined score of 44, and scores 8 out of 9 on the financial health assessment — indicators of an operationally sound franchise with durable profitability. Quality breakdown | Net margin holds above 25% and the combined efficiency score stays above 40 over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe forward P/E of 33.3 times means the quality premium is already reflected in the price; any margin contraction or softer demand could trigger a de-rating even if absolute quality holds up. | ||
With a forward P/E of 33.3 times and a PEG of 1.72, the stock screens expensive relative to growth, and the share price has already moved above the near-term price target — making the current risk/reward geometry unfavorable for new capital. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple compresses below 26 times over the next 12 months, either through earnings growth outpacing the share price or a price correction that restores entry room. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-quality franchises in durable consumer industries often sustain premium multiples for extended periods; the valuation, while full, is not inherently unsustainable if lodging demand trends remain positive. | ||
The stock sits near its 52-week high with a put/call ratio of 2.04 — options participants are carrying unusually heavy downside protection, a setup often associated with near-term consolidation risk even in technically strong trends. Risk breakdown | If the business outlook remains healthy over 12 months, the put/call ratio should normalize below 1.0 as hedges roll off and the stock digests near current levels without a sharp reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterA golden cross and rising OBV confirm institutional accumulation remains intact; an elevated put/call ratio can simply reflect hedging by existing holders rather than directional bearishness, and the trend may persist regardless. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of roughly 4 percentage points — a track record of consistent, modest outperformance that limits the risk of negative earnings surprises.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS beats continue for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterThe average beat is narrow at roughly 4 percentage points; any unexpected cost increase or demand softness could produce the first miss, resetting expectations and potentially triggering a de-rating from an already elevated multiple.
The business sustains 30% net margins, passes the growth-efficiency test with a combined score of 44, and scores 8 out of 9 on the financial health assessment — indicators of an operationally sound franchise with durable profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin holds above 25% and the combined efficiency score stays above 40 over the next four quarters.
CounterThe forward P/E of 33.3 times means the quality premium is already reflected in the price; any margin contraction or softer demand could trigger a de-rating even if absolute quality holds up.
With a forward P/E of 33.3 times and a PEG of 1.72, the stock screens expensive relative to growth, and the share price has already moved above the near-term price target — making the current risk/reward geometry unfavorable for new capital.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple compresses below 26 times over the next 12 months, either through earnings growth outpacing the share price or a price correction that restores entry room.
CounterHigh-quality franchises in durable consumer industries often sustain premium multiples for extended periods; the valuation, while full, is not inherently unsustainable if lodging demand trends remain positive.
The stock sits near its 52-week high with a put/call ratio of 2.04 — options participants are carrying unusually heavy downside protection, a setup often associated with near-term consolidation risk even in technically strong trends.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- If the business outlook remains healthy over 12 months, the put/call ratio should normalize below 1.0 as hedges roll off and the stock digests near current levels without a sharp reversal.
CounterA golden cross and rising OBV confirm institutional accumulation remains intact; an elevated put/call ratio can simply reflect hedging by existing holders rather than directional bearishness, and the trend may persist regardless.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 7.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Rule of 40: 44 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 9.0 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 5.5 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $205
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 17.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.46
Upside
-9.8%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (7.8) with weak momentum (3.0)
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.46 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.8, Growth at 7.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4; the weakest are Value at 2.8, Momentum at 3.0, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business sustains 30% net margins, passes the growth-efficiency test with a combined score of 44, and scores 8 out of 9 on the financial health assessment — indicators of an operationally sound franchise with durable profitability.
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of roughly 4 percentage points — a track record of consistent, modest outperformance that limits the risk of negative earnings surprises.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3With a forward P/E of 33.3 times and a PEG of 1.72, the stock screens expensive relative to growth, and the share price has already moved above the near-term price target — making the current risk/reward geometry unfavorable for new capital.
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 24 times for 2 consecutive quarter estimates.
- P4The stock sits near its 52-week high with a put/call ratio of 2.04 — options participants are carrying unusually heavy downside protection, a setup often associated with near-term consolidation risk even in technically strong trends.
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 4 consecutive weeks.