Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
GPRE · Why this verdict
Why Green Plains (GPRE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A 26% revenue decline, sub-floor business quality at 2.3, negative free cash flow, a 21% short interest, and a price that has essentially reached its analyst target with only 0.2% remaining upside combine to make the risk profile untenable; the setup warrants exiting any existing position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue declined 26% year-over-year—a sharp contraction that reflects material deterioration in the company's top-line trajectory and leaves little near-term foundation for a recovery in profitability or cash generation. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive on a year-over-year basis for at least 2 consecutive quarters before the revenue trend can be considered stabilized. | →Stable |
| CounterA 26% decline from a potentially elevated base could be partly cyclical; if pricing or volume conditions normalize, revenue may recover faster than the current rate of decline implies. | ||
Business quality at 2.3 is well below the minimum 4.0 threshold, with free cash flow negative, no competitive moat, and near-zero returns on equity—a combination that makes the company unable to generate economic value for shareholders in the current operating environment. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive for 2 consecutive quarters as the most basic indicator that the business can sustain itself without external capital. | →Stable |
| CounterA current ratio of 6.1 and a Piotroski F-score of 6.7 indicate a sturdy near-term balance sheet; the company may have sufficient liquidity to weather the trough and reemerge cash-generative if conditions improve. | ||
A short interest of 21%—characterized as justified given the fundamentals—and a put/call ratio of 1.72 indicate persistent and informed market skepticism about a recovery, consistent with the fundamental picture. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline below 10% for 2 consecutive months as evidence that the bear case is losing adherents. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 27 in oversold territory while the price remains above the 200-day moving average sets up a potential mean-reversion bounce, which could force short covering and a rapid near-term price recovery independent of fundamentals. | ||
The last four quarters show an alternating beat/miss pattern with extreme swings—most recently a 248% positive surprise, preceded by a 316% negative surprise, then a 377% beat, and then a 21% miss—indicating that earnings outcomes are highly unpredictable and that guidance has little forecasting reliability. Earnings | EPS surprises should remain within 20% of consensus in either direction for 3 consecutive quarters, signaling improved management visibility and operational stability. | →Stable |
| CounterPositive surprises of 248% and 377% demonstrate significant upside capacity when conditions align; if the cycle turns favorable, the magnitude of the beats could meaningfully re-rate the stock in a short time. | ||
Revenue declined 26% year-over-year—a sharp contraction that reflects material deterioration in the company's top-line trajectory and leaves little near-term foundation for a recovery in profitability or cash generation.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive on a year-over-year basis for at least 2 consecutive quarters before the revenue trend can be considered stabilized.
CounterA 26% decline from a potentially elevated base could be partly cyclical; if pricing or volume conditions normalize, revenue may recover faster than the current rate of decline implies.
Business quality at 2.3 is well below the minimum 4.0 threshold, with free cash flow negative, no competitive moat, and near-zero returns on equity—a combination that makes the company unable to generate economic value for shareholders in the current operating environment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive for 2 consecutive quarters as the most basic indicator that the business can sustain itself without external capital.
CounterA current ratio of 6.1 and a Piotroski F-score of 6.7 indicate a sturdy near-term balance sheet; the company may have sufficient liquidity to weather the trough and reemerge cash-generative if conditions improve.
A short interest of 21%—characterized as justified given the fundamentals—and a put/call ratio of 1.72 indicate persistent and informed market skepticism about a recovery, consistent with the fundamental picture.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline below 10% for 2 consecutive months as evidence that the bear case is losing adherents.
CounterAn RSI of 27 in oversold territory while the price remains above the 200-day moving average sets up a potential mean-reversion bounce, which could force short covering and a rapid near-term price recovery independent of fundamentals.
The last four quarters show an alternating beat/miss pattern with extreme swings—most recently a 248% positive surprise, preceded by a 316% negative surprise, then a 377% beat, and then a 21% miss—indicating that earnings outcomes are highly unpredictable and that guidance has little forecasting reliability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprises should remain within 20% of consensus in either direction for 3 consecutive quarters, signaling improved management visibility and operational stability.
CounterPositive surprises of 248% and 377% demonstrate significant upside capacity when conditions align; if the cycle turns favorable, the magnitude of the beats could meaningfully re-rate the stock in a short time.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -26%
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.4 |
| days to cover | 2.2 |
| volatility | 0.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 21%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.00
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:46d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.16
Upside
-1.5%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Technical at 6.6, and Momentum at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Quality at 2.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue declined 26% year-over-year—a sharp contraction that reflects material deterioration in the company's top-line trajectory and leaves little near-term foundation for a recovery in profitability or cash generation.
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Business quality at 2.3 is well below the minimum 4.0 threshold, with free cash flow negative, no competitive moat, and near-zero returns on equity—a combination that makes the company unable to generate economic value for shareholders in the current operating environment.
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above $0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3A short interest of 21%—characterized as justified given the fundamentals—and a put/call ratio of 1.72 indicate persistent and informed market skepticism about a recovery, consistent with the fundamental picture.
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% for 2 consecutive months.
- P4The last four quarters show an alternating beat/miss pattern with extreme swings—most recently a 248% positive surprise, preceded by a 316% negative surprise, then a 377% beat, and then a 21% miss—indicating that earnings outcomes are highly unpredictable and that guidance has little forecasting reliability.
Trip ifAverage absolute EPS surprise compresses below 20% of the consensus estimate for 3 consecutive quarters.