Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
GEF · Why this verdict
Why Greif (GEF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Greif has been carried by positive price momentum and an attractive valuation on a price-to-growth basis, but the stock has already moved past its analyst-derived fair value target with negative upside remaining, the prior three quarters before the most recent beat produced severe earnings misses, and the options market and a flagged yield trap add further caution — the setup favors patience over new commitment at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is trading above its resistance-based fair value ceiling, with upside to that target now slightly negative and risk/reward flipped unfavorable — meaning the price has already captured the nearer-term revaluation opportunity and the current entry geometry is unattractive. Price targets | Analyst consensus price targets are revised upward to at least $80, restoring a minimum of 15% upside from current price and re-opening a constructive risk/reward. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock trading just marginally above its analyst-consensus target is not necessarily overvalued — if forward earnings estimates prove conservative, the target may simply lag a legitimate fundamental re-rating. | ||
The three quarters immediately preceding the most recent report produced significant earnings misses of -14.5%, -98.3%, and -29.1% respectively, with an average quarterly surprise of -34.7% across all four recent quarters — a pattern of consistent shortfalls against estimates that raises questions about earnings visibility and guidance reliability. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 3 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the earnings miss pattern has genuinely reversed rather than pausing for one quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter returned a beat of roughly 3%, suggesting management may have finally reset expectations to an achievable level — one beat after a string of misses can signal the trough of an earnings revision cycle. | ||
RSI has reached 71 — an overbought reading — while price trades above the 200-day moving average with strong volume accumulation, a combination that reflects a momentum overshoot that can be difficult to sustain without a fundamental catalyst to justify the extension. Momentum breakdown | RSI pulls back below 60 within 6 weeks while price remains above the 200-day moving average, resetting momentum to a more sustainable level before the next leg. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought RSI readings in strong uptrends can persist for weeks; in a momentum-driven environment, momentum can stay elevated longer than contrarian analysis suggests, particularly when volume accumulation is supportive. | ||
A yield trap warning flags that the dividend appears high relative to earnings sustainability — the distribution level looks elevated but is not covered at a level the analysis deems safe, raising the risk that the headline yield overstates the real income return investors can depend on. Catalyst breakdown | Reported earnings per share exceed $1.50 for 2 consecutive quarters, providing a more credible earnings base to underpin the current distribution level. | →Stable |
| CounterA high payout relative to recent depressed earnings may reflect cyclical trough profitability rather than a structurally uncovered dividend — if earnings recover toward prior peak levels, what looks like a yield trap today may normalize into an adequately covered yield. | ||
The stock is trading above its resistance-based fair value ceiling, with upside to that target now slightly negative and risk/reward flipped unfavorable — meaning the price has already captured the nearer-term revaluation opportunity and the current entry geometry is unattractive.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets are revised upward to at least $80, restoring a minimum of 15% upside from current price and re-opening a constructive risk/reward.
CounterA stock trading just marginally above its analyst-consensus target is not necessarily overvalued — if forward earnings estimates prove conservative, the target may simply lag a legitimate fundamental re-rating.
The three quarters immediately preceding the most recent report produced significant earnings misses of -14.5%, -98.3%, and -29.1% respectively, with an average quarterly surprise of -34.7% across all four recent quarters — a pattern of consistent shortfalls against estimates that raises questions about earnings visibility and guidance reliability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 3 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the earnings miss pattern has genuinely reversed rather than pausing for one quarter.
CounterThe most recent quarter returned a beat of roughly 3%, suggesting management may have finally reset expectations to an achievable level — one beat after a string of misses can signal the trough of an earnings revision cycle.
RSI has reached 71 — an overbought reading — while price trades above the 200-day moving average with strong volume accumulation, a combination that reflects a momentum overshoot that can be difficult to sustain without a fundamental catalyst to justify the extension.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI pulls back below 60 within 6 weeks while price remains above the 200-day moving average, resetting momentum to a more sustainable level before the next leg.
CounterOverbought RSI readings in strong uptrends can persist for weeks; in a momentum-driven environment, momentum can stay elevated longer than contrarian analysis suggests, particularly when volume accumulation is supportive.
A yield trap warning flags that the dividend appears high relative to earnings sustainability — the distribution level looks elevated but is not covered at a level the analysis deems safe, raising the risk that the headline yield overstates the real income return investors can depend on.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Reported earnings per share exceed $1.50 for 2 consecutive quarters, providing a more credible earnings base to underpin the current distribution level.
CounterA high payout relative to recent depressed earnings may reflect cyclical trough profitability rather than a structurally uncovered dividend — if earnings recover toward prior peak levels, what looks like a yield trap today may normalize into an adequately covered yield.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 84)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $406,671 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
-0.59
Upside
-8.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.59 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0, Value at 7.2, and Momentum at 7.2; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.8, Technical at 3.1, and Quality at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The stock is trading above its resistance-based fair value ceiling, with upside to that target now slightly negative and risk/reward flipped unfavorable — meaning the price has already captured the nearer-term revaluation opportunity and the current entry geometry is unattractive.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $80, restoring at least 15% upside from current price.
- P2The three quarters immediately preceding the most recent report produced significant earnings misses of -14.5%, -98.3%, and -29.1% respectively, with an average quarterly surprise of -34.7% across all four recent quarters — a pattern of consistent shortfalls against estimates that raises questions about earnings visibility and guidance reliability.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P3RSI has reached 71 — an overbought reading — while price trades above the 200-day moving average with strong volume accumulation, a combination that reflects a momentum overshoot that can be difficult to sustain without a fundamental catalyst to justify the extension.
Trip ifRSI pulls back below 50 and price falls below the 200-day moving average for more than 20 consecutive trading days.
- P4A yield trap warning flags that the dividend appears high relative to earnings sustainability — the distribution level looks elevated but is not covered at a level the analysis deems safe, raising the risk that the headline yield overstates the real income return investors can depend on.
Trip ifReported EPS exceeds $1.50 for 2 consecutive quarters.