Value
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 1.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 37.0x
- ▸PEG: 7.72
- ▸Expensive valuation
GE · Why this verdict
Why GE Aerospace (GE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
GE at $314.49 has 4/4 beats (avg 13.78%), momentum 7.3, MOMENTUM_CONT setup, dual NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST gates passed (cluster of 3 bullish notes in 7d), 25% revenue growth, and ROE 45% — but V9 asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot fails (TP $315.30 is $0.81 above spot), Forward P/E 36.2x, PEG 7.57, and edge_type NO_EDGE produce AVOID; action_note 'Consider reducing position.'
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Value subscore 3.0 with notes 'Forward P/E: 36.2x', 'PEG: 7.57', 'Expensive valuation' — bear_case 'Expensive valuation' confirms; PEG 7.57 is exceptionally high even for aerospace cycle peaks. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses below 30x OR earnings_growth re-rates upward to bring PEG below 5.0 within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterPEG inflation reflects depressed earnings_growth component (1.6/10) from comparison-period base effects; if forward EPS guidance lifts, PEG can compress to 3-4 fast. | ||
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' and avg_surprise_pct 13.78% — all four quarters beat by 9-16%, structural earnings power above consensus. Bull case (item 1) | Beat count holds at 4/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 10% by the 2026-07-16 print. | →stable |
| CounterAerospace cycle peaks produce 4-quarter beat streaks before normalization; commercial aviation demand has visible cyclical risk in 2026-2027. | ||
V9 NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70 and NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3) gates passed with sentiment notes 'Analyst cluster: 3 bullish in 7d (2x boost)' and bull_case 'Recent Analyst detected in news' — concentrated bullish sell-side flow. Engine gate (passed) | Sentiment subscore stays above 7.0 with at least 1 new analyst news event in next 30 days. | →stable |
| CounterAnalyst cluster boosts often mark short-term sentiment peaks; the price is already at analyst target, so the cluster may be late, not leading. | ||
V9 setup_type MOMENTUM_CONT (Trend continuation, RSI 66, MACD bullish) with momentum 7.3, OBV 10/10, ma_position 9.0/10, 52w_position 8.1/10 — bull_case 'Positive momentum' confirms uptrend strength. Chart pattern detection | Momentum subscore stays above 6.5 with RSI between 60-75 on next refresh. | →stable |
| CounterRSI 66 close to overbought + technical bollinger 0.0 + support_resistance 0.1 show price is far above support — pullback risk into earnings is elevated. | ||
V9 asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot gate failure with v9.upside_pct 0.3 vs downside_pct 11.2 and risk_reward 0.05 — TP $315.30 is $0.81 above $314.49 spot, the asymmetry has fully closed. Engine gate (failed) | Analyst take_profit advances above $360 (14%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 1.5 within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterAerospace re-rating during super-cycle accelerations sees targets advance ahead of price; cluster-driven flow can re-rate TP $30+ in days. | ||
Value subscore 3.0 with notes 'Forward P/E: 36.2x', 'PEG: 7.57', 'Expensive valuation' — bear_case 'Expensive valuation' confirms; PEG 7.57 is exceptionally high even for aerospace cycle peaks.
→stableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 30x OR earnings_growth re-rates upward to bring PEG below 5.0 within 2 refreshes.
CounterPEG inflation reflects depressed earnings_growth component (1.6/10) from comparison-period base effects; if forward EPS guidance lifts, PEG can compress to 3-4 fast.
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' and avg_surprise_pct 13.78% — all four quarters beat by 9-16%, structural earnings power above consensus.
→stableBull case (item 1)
- Expectation
- Beat count holds at 4/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 10% by the 2026-07-16 print.
CounterAerospace cycle peaks produce 4-quarter beat streaks before normalization; commercial aviation demand has visible cyclical risk in 2026-2027.
V9 NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70 and NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3) gates passed with sentiment notes 'Analyst cluster: 3 bullish in 7d (2x boost)' and bull_case 'Recent Analyst detected in news' — concentrated bullish sell-side flow.
→stableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- Sentiment subscore stays above 7.0 with at least 1 new analyst news event in next 30 days.
CounterAnalyst cluster boosts often mark short-term sentiment peaks; the price is already at analyst target, so the cluster may be late, not leading.
V9 setup_type MOMENTUM_CONT (Trend continuation, RSI 66, MACD bullish) with momentum 7.3, OBV 10/10, ma_position 9.0/10, 52w_position 8.1/10 — bull_case 'Positive momentum' confirms uptrend strength.
→stableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum subscore stays above 6.5 with RSI between 60-75 on next refresh.
CounterRSI 66 close to overbought + technical bollinger 0.0 + support_resistance 0.1 show price is far above support — pullback risk into earnings is elevated.
V9 asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot gate failure with v9.upside_pct 0.3 vs downside_pct 11.2 and risk_reward 0.05 — TP $315.30 is $0.81 above $314.49 spot, the asymmetry has fully closed.
→stableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit advances above $360 (14%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 1.5 within 2 refreshes.
CounterAerospace re-rating during super-cycle accelerations sees targets advance ahead of price; cluster-driven flow can re-rate TP $30+ in days.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.2 |
| Op margin | 8.1 |
| Net margin | 8.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 45%
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 66% FCF/NI
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.7 |
| EPS growth | 1.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 8.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.3 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.65 (n=5)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 9.2 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 59.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.19
Upside
-2.6%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.35>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.4, Sentiment at 7.9, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Value at 2.7, Technical at 3.1, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' and avg_surprise_pct 13.78% — all four quarters beat by 9-16%, structural earnings power above consensus.
Trip ifBeat count drops to 2/4 with avg_surprise_pct below 5%.
- P2V9 NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70 and NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3) gates passed with sentiment notes 'Analyst cluster: 3 bullish in 7d (2x boost)' and bull_case 'Recent Analyst detected in news' — concentrated bullish sell-side flow.
Trip ifSentiment subscore falls below 6.0 with no new analyst news in 60 days.
- P3V9 setup_type MOMENTUM_CONT (Trend continuation, RSI 66, MACD bullish) with momentum 7.3, OBV 10/10, ma_position 9.0/10, 52w_position 8.1/10 — bull_case 'Positive momentum' confirms uptrend strength.
Trip ifMomentum subscore stays below 5.0 with price below 50-day MA.
- P4V9 asymmetry at 0.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot gate failure with v9.upside_pct 0.3 vs downside_pct 11.2 and risk_reward 0.05 — TP $315.30 is $0.81 above $314.49 spot, the asymmetry has fully closed.
Trip ifAsymmetry_ratio stays below 0.5 for 3 consecutive refreshes.
- P5Value subscore 3.0 with notes 'Forward P/E: 36.2x', 'PEG: 7.57', 'Expensive valuation' — bear_case 'Expensive valuation' confirms; PEG 7.57 is exceptionally high even for aerospace cycle peaks.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 45x or PEG above 10.0.