Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
GBCI · Why this verdict
Why Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Glacier Bancorp is among the regional banking industry's top growth names at 40% year-over-year with a golden cross technical setup and broad-based momentum; however, the stock has essentially reached its near-term target with only 1.3% upside remaining, carries a high yield flagged as potentially unsafe, and has shown uneven earnings execution, making the current setup a hold rather than a fresh entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A golden cross formation, price above all major moving averages, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume create a rare breadth of confirming technical signals that indicate near-term momentum is constructive. Momentum breakdown | Price breaks and holds above $50 for at least 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the technical breakout. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock sits within 3.1% of its 52-week high and has already priced in a significant portion of the momentum; technical signals can quickly reverse when price approaches prior-high resistance, especially in a name with thin analyst coverage. | ||
Revenue has grown 40% year-over-year, placing this bank among the industry growth leaders in its peer group; the earnings growth score supports the view that this expansion reflects durable underlying demand rather than a one-period anomaly. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the durability of the expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent earnings miss of 11.4% two quarters ago suggests not all of the revenue growth consistently translates into expected earnings; rapid loan growth can also mask underlying credit quality issues that surface in subsequent periods. | ||
The dividend yield is high but flagged as potentially unsafe; a dividend cut would not only eliminate the income appeal but would likely trigger a sharp downward re-rating as income-oriented holders exit. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend payout ratio (payout as a share of EPS) falls below 70% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating the yield is sustainably covered by earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterA 40% revenue growth trajectory provides a viable path to growing earnings into the current payout; the yield-trap warning may be premature if the payout ratio normalizes naturally as earnings expand. | ||
With just 1.3% headroom to the near-term target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.29-to-1, the current setup offers near-zero margin for error; the stock has effectively reached the near-term analyst view. Price targets | Price corrects at least 5% from current levels, or the analyst consensus target increases by more than 10%, restoring a more favorable entry geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum — golden cross, above all major moving averages, rising on-balance volume — could sustain the advance past the current target if the next earnings print is a decisive beat; price targets in high-growth names are regularly revised higher. | ||
The past four quarters show mixed execution: a 5% beat in the most recent quarter, followed by a large 11.4% miss in the prior quarter, then an in-line quarter, then a beat — a pattern that breaks what would otherwise be a clean growth narrative. Earnings | EPS beats consensus by more than 3% for 3 consecutive quarters, re-establishing consistent execution and eliminating the miss outlier as a concern. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a 5% beat, and the four-quarter average surprise is positive at roughly 4%; one large miss in a volatile quarter may not represent a systematic execution problem. | ||
A golden cross formation, price above all major moving averages, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume create a rare breadth of confirming technical signals that indicate near-term momentum is constructive.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price breaks and holds above $50 for at least 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the technical breakout.
CounterThe stock sits within 3.1% of its 52-week high and has already priced in a significant portion of the momentum; technical signals can quickly reverse when price approaches prior-high resistance, especially in a name with thin analyst coverage.
Revenue has grown 40% year-over-year, placing this bank among the industry growth leaders in its peer group; the earnings growth score supports the view that this expansion reflects durable underlying demand rather than a one-period anomaly.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the durability of the expansion.
CounterThe most recent earnings miss of 11.4% two quarters ago suggests not all of the revenue growth consistently translates into expected earnings; rapid loan growth can also mask underlying credit quality issues that surface in subsequent periods.
The dividend yield is high but flagged as potentially unsafe; a dividend cut would not only eliminate the income appeal but would likely trigger a sharp downward re-rating as income-oriented holders exit.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend payout ratio (payout as a share of EPS) falls below 70% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating the yield is sustainably covered by earnings.
CounterA 40% revenue growth trajectory provides a viable path to growing earnings into the current payout; the yield-trap warning may be premature if the payout ratio normalizes naturally as earnings expand.
With just 1.3% headroom to the near-term target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.29-to-1, the current setup offers near-zero margin for error; the stock has effectively reached the near-term analyst view.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price corrects at least 5% from current levels, or the analyst consensus target increases by more than 10%, restoring a more favorable entry geometry.
CounterStrong momentum — golden cross, above all major moving averages, rising on-balance volume — could sustain the advance past the current target if the next earnings print is a decisive beat; price targets in high-growth names are regularly revised higher.
The past four quarters show mixed execution: a 5% beat in the most recent quarter, followed by a large 11.4% miss in the prior quarter, then an in-line quarter, then a beat — a pattern that breaks what would otherwise be a clean growth narrative.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus by more than 3% for 3 consecutive quarters, re-establishing consistent execution and eliminating the miss outlier as a concern.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a 5% beat, and the four-quarter average surprise is positive at roughly 4%; one large miss in a volatile quarter may not represent a systematic execution problem.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 8.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 40% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.7 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 2.7 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
- ▸Above max pain $20
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.29
Upside
-2.8%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.2; weakest: Technical at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Value at 6.8, and Momentum at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Peer rank at 4.1, and Catalyst at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue has grown 40% year-over-year, placing this bank among the industry growth leaders in its peer group; the earnings growth score supports the view that this expansion reflects durable underlying demand rather than a one-period anomaly.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The dividend yield is high but flagged as potentially unsafe; a dividend cut would not only eliminate the income appeal but would likely trigger a sharp downward re-rating as income-oriented holders exit.
Trip ifDividend payout ratio falls below 60% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the yield is safely covered.
- P3With just 1.3% headroom to the near-term target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.29-to-1, the current setup offers near-zero margin for error; the stock has effectively reached the near-term analyst view.
Trip ifUpside to near-term target exceeds 8%, confirming price has corrected to a favorable entry geometry.
- P4A golden cross formation, price above all major moving averages, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume create a rare breadth of confirming technical signals that indicate near-term momentum is constructive.
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below for 2 consecutive months.
- P5The past four quarters show mixed execution: a 5% beat in the most recent quarter, followed by a large 11.4% miss in the prior quarter, then an in-line quarter, then a beat — a pattern that breaks what would otherwise be a clean growth narrative.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 4% for 3 consecutive quarters, re-establishing a consistent beat pattern.