Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.3 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.49
FTAI · Why this verdict
Why FTAI Aviation (FTAI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Sixty-six percent year-over-year revenue growth and a technical breakout with a golden cross make a compelling near-term momentum case, but free cash flow is negative, leverage stands at a debt-to-equity of 8.1, and two of the last four earnings reports missed estimates — warning signs that headline growth may not yet be translating into durable financial strength.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has grown 66% year over year and both the revenue growth and earnings growth dimensions score at the top of the engine's range, signaling a business in an accelerating expansion phase that the current price may not fully capture. Growth | Revenue growth stays above 30% year over year for at least two of the next four reported quarters, demonstrating that the high-growth phase is durable rather than a one-period spike. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo earnings misses in the last four quarters — including an 8.4% shortfall in the most recent period — suggest the headline growth rate is outpacing operational delivery, and if the miss pattern continues, the growth premium in the valuation could evaporate quickly. | ||
The stock has established a golden cross with price above all major moving averages, rising on-balance volume (accumulation), and a constructive MACD — a configuration that historically supports sustained upward price momentum. Momentum | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues its upward trend for the next two to three months without a reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterA recent 5.6% gap-up flagged as potentially overextended may pull back before the breakout is confirmed; an earnings miss into the elevated setup could accelerate a reversal back toward pre-gap levels. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 8.1 draws a significant leverage penalty, and free cash flow is negative — running at negative 60% relative to net income — meaning the business is not yet converting its strong reported earnings into cash, a combination the bundle explicitly flags as a value-trap signal. Bear case | Free cash flow turns positive for 2 consecutive quarters and debt-to-equity declines below 6.0, demonstrating that the gap between reported earnings and cash generation is closing. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong margins of 19% and return on equity inflated by a low equity base from capital returns suggest the underlying operating engine is genuinely productive; the negative free cash flow may reflect capital deployment into growth rather than permanent cash drain. | ||
Two of the last four reported quarters missed consensus estimates — including an 8.4% miss in the most recent period — creating an inconsistent earnings track record that tempers confidence in the 66% revenue growth story and raises the bar for the next print. Earnings | The company delivers 3 earnings beats in any 4 consecutive quarters going forward, demonstrating that execution has normalized relative to the consensus expectations set by strong revenue growth. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the four quarters also produced meaningful beats (including a 30.8% positive surprise two quarters ago), meaning the miss pattern is not uniformly negative and the average surprise remains positive across all four periods. | ||
Revenue has grown 66% year over year and both the revenue growth and earnings growth dimensions score at the top of the engine's range, signaling a business in an accelerating expansion phase that the current price may not fully capture.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 30% year over year for at least two of the next four reported quarters, demonstrating that the high-growth phase is durable rather than a one-period spike.
CounterTwo earnings misses in the last four quarters — including an 8.4% shortfall in the most recent period — suggest the headline growth rate is outpacing operational delivery, and if the miss pattern continues, the growth premium in the valuation could evaporate quickly.
The stock has established a golden cross with price above all major moving averages, rising on-balance volume (accumulation), and a constructive MACD — a configuration that historically supports sustained upward price momentum.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues its upward trend for the next two to three months without a reversal.
CounterA recent 5.6% gap-up flagged as potentially overextended may pull back before the breakout is confirmed; an earnings miss into the elevated setup could accelerate a reversal back toward pre-gap levels.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 8.1 draws a significant leverage penalty, and free cash flow is negative — running at negative 60% relative to net income — meaning the business is not yet converting its strong reported earnings into cash, a combination the bundle explicitly flags as a value-trap signal.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive for 2 consecutive quarters and debt-to-equity declines below 6.0, demonstrating that the gap between reported earnings and cash generation is closing.
CounterStrong margins of 19% and return on equity inflated by a low equity base from capital returns suggest the underlying operating engine is genuinely productive; the negative free cash flow may reflect capital deployment into growth rather than permanent cash drain.
Two of the last four reported quarters missed consensus estimates — including an 8.4% miss in the most recent period — creating an inconsistent earnings track record that tempers confidence in the 66% revenue growth story and raises the bar for the next print.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers 3 earnings beats in any 4 consecutive quarters going forward, demonstrating that execution has normalized relative to the consensus expectations set by strong revenue growth.
CounterTwo of the four quarters also produced meaningful beats (including a 30.8% positive surprise two quarters ago), meaning the miss pattern is not uniformly negative and the average surprise remains positive across all four periods.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.6 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 9.0 |
| Net margin | 9.5 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 233%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -60% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 66% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $61,599,235 (0.221% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 55.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.74
Upside
+11.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.52>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.74 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 6.8, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Technical at 4.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue has grown 66% year over year and both the revenue growth and earnings growth dimensions score at the top of the engine's range, signaling a business in an accelerating expansion phase that the current price may not fully capture.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The stock has established a golden cross with price above all major moving averages, rising on-balance volume (accumulation), and a constructive MACD — a configuration that historically supports sustained upward price momentum.
Trip ifStock price closes below its 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive months.
- P3A debt-to-equity ratio of 8.1 draws a significant leverage penalty, and free cash flow is negative — running at negative 60% relative to net income — meaning the business is not yet converting its strong reported earnings into cash, a combination the bundle explicitly flags as a value-trap signal.
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above $0 for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating the business has begun converting its reported earnings into cash.
- P4Two of the last four reported quarters missed consensus estimates — including an 8.4% miss in the most recent period — creating an inconsistent earnings track record that tempers confidence in the 66% revenue growth story and raises the bar for the next print.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.