Value
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 8.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.79
- ▸Attractively valued
FISV · Why this verdict
Why Fiserv (FISV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Fiserv offers a forward P/E of 5.4x with approximately 31% analyst-implied upside to $63.00, but a Piotroski F-Score of 0 out of 9, a confirmed death-cross downtrend with volume-surge distribution, and heavy geographic concentration in the U.S. and Canada represent layered structural and technical risks that outweigh the valuation discount in the near term.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a Piotroski F-Score of 0 out of 9—the worst possible reading—the business has failed every financial health check across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, pushing the quality score well below the minimum threshold required for a sound investment case. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score recovers to at least 4 out of 9 within 4 reported quarters, signaling that the quality impairment is being reversed. | →Stable |
| CounterThree of the four most recent quarters produced earnings beats, and analyst consensus implies 46% upside, suggesting institutional earnings models see normalized earnings power that the trailing Piotroski score may be temporarily obscuring. | ||
A death cross formed, the stock trades below all major moving averages with the slope declining approximately 14.5% over 30 days, and a volume surge of 3.5 times the average occurred during the selloff—characteristics of institutional distribution rather than healthy consolidation. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive for 4 consecutive weeks, reversing the distribution signal. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extreme gap-down of 8.3% with a noted potential reversal signal suggests the selloff may have exhausted near-term selling pressure; sharp volume-driven declines sometimes mark short-term capitulation rather than the beginning of sustained distribution. | ||
At a forward P/E of 5.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.79, the stock screens as substantially discounted relative to expected earnings, offering 31% upside to the analyst consensus target of $63.00—a gap where a quality improvement could trigger a meaningful re-rating. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E multiple expands above 10x as the share price moves toward the consensus target of $63.00. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 0 and ongoing downward price momentum make cheap multiples potentially self-justifying; the discount may persist as long as quality metrics remain at floor-level impairment. | ||
Approximately 84% of revenue is derived from the U.S. and Canadian markets, concentrating performance risk within a single economic and regulatory region and limiting the natural diversification that geography can provide. Bear case | International revenue mix expands beyond 20% of total over 4 consecutive reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterDominant home-market penetration can reflect competitive strength rather than fragility; the concentration risk is most consequential only if the domestic market itself faces a systemic demand or regulatory disruption. | ||
With a Piotroski F-Score of 0 out of 9—the worst possible reading—the business has failed every financial health check across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, pushing the quality score well below the minimum threshold required for a sound investment case.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score recovers to at least 4 out of 9 within 4 reported quarters, signaling that the quality impairment is being reversed.
CounterThree of the four most recent quarters produced earnings beats, and analyst consensus implies 46% upside, suggesting institutional earnings models see normalized earnings power that the trailing Piotroski score may be temporarily obscuring.
A death cross formed, the stock trades below all major moving averages with the slope declining approximately 14.5% over 30 days, and a volume surge of 3.5 times the average occurred during the selloff—characteristics of institutional distribution rather than healthy consolidation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive for 4 consecutive weeks, reversing the distribution signal.
CounterAn extreme gap-down of 8.3% with a noted potential reversal signal suggests the selloff may have exhausted near-term selling pressure; sharp volume-driven declines sometimes mark short-term capitulation rather than the beginning of sustained distribution.
At a forward P/E of 5.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.79, the stock screens as substantially discounted relative to expected earnings, offering 31% upside to the analyst consensus target of $63.00—a gap where a quality improvement could trigger a meaningful re-rating.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E multiple expands above 10x as the share price moves toward the consensus target of $63.00.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 0 and ongoing downward price momentum make cheap multiples potentially self-justifying; the discount may persist as long as quality metrics remain at floor-level impairment.
Approximately 84% of revenue is derived from the U.S. and Canadian markets, concentrating performance risk within a single economic and regulatory region and limiting the natural diversification that geography can provide.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue mix expands beyond 20% of total over 4 consecutive reported quarters.
CounterDominant home-market penetration can reflect competitive strength rather than fragility; the concentration risk is most consequential only if the domestic market itself faces a systemic demand or regulatory disruption.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 29%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 0.0 |
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -14.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $1,073,673 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| volatility | 0.7 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $25
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.36
Upside
+31.5%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 27d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Sentiment at 6.3, and Technical at 5.7; the weakest are Quality at 2.5, Momentum at 2.8, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1With a Piotroski F-Score of 0 out of 9—the worst possible reading—the business has failed every financial health check across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency dimensions, pushing the quality score well below the minimum threshold required for a sound investment case.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score recovers to 5 or above for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P2A death cross formed, the stock trades below all major moving averages with the slope declining approximately 14.5% over 30 days, and a volume surge of 3.5 times the average occurred during the selloff—characteristics of institutional distribution rather than healthy consolidation.
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks while on-balance volume turns positive.
- P3At a forward P/E of 5.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.79, the stock screens as substantially discounted relative to expected earnings, offering 31% upside to the analyst consensus target of $63.00—a gap where a quality improvement could trigger a meaningful re-rating.
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 12x as the share price rises above the analyst consensus target of $63.00.
- P4Approximately 84% of revenue is derived from the U.S. and Canadian markets, concentrating performance risk within a single economic and regulatory region and limiting the natural diversification that geography can provide.
Trip ifInternational (non-U.S./Canada) revenue share exceeds 20% of total for 2 consecutive reported periods.