Value
8.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
FIHL · Why this verdict
Why Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limi (FIHL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
With a forward P/E of 5.2x and free cash flow exceeding reported earnings by 56%, the value and cash-quality case is strong — but the stock is within 1.7% of the analyst price target with a reward-to-risk of 0.35-to-1, and 11% revenue decline raises questions about whether the earnings base is durable.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Shares trade at a forward P/E of 5.2x with a PEG ratio of 0.06, screening exceptionally cheap relative to earnings growth — and free cash flow exceeds reported net income by 56%, suggesting that stated earnings may understate economic earnings power. Valuation breakdown | Free cash flow yield remains above 10% over the next four quarters and the forward P/E begins re-rating toward peer multiples. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue has declined 11% year over year, suggesting the cheap valuation may reflect rational market skepticism about the business's ability to sustain the current earnings run rate as the top line continues to contract. | ||
Revenue has declined 11% year over year — a trajectory that, if sustained, would eventually compress the earnings base underpinning the currently attractive valuation and put the 4-quarter earnings beat streak at risk. Growth breakdown | Revenue returns to flat or positive growth year over year within the next two fiscal quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe four-quarter earnings beat streak demonstrates the company has been delivering profitability improvements even as revenue contracts, indicating cost discipline may be partially buffering the topline impact. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four of the past four quarters — including two narrow near-in-line beats in the most recent two quarters following a large positive surprise the period before that — maintaining an unbroken beat streak even through periods of revenue contraction. Earnings | Beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters while EPS in absolute dollars continues to grow. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recent beats were approximately 1% each, suggesting the large upside from prior periods may have been a one-time base effect rather than ongoing execution strength, making the streak fragile going forward. | ||
With the stock just 1.7% below the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk of 0.35-to-1, the near-term upside is substantially outweighed by the measured downside, making the setup unfavorable for new entry at current prices. Price targets | A more attractive setup would require a price reset that brings upside to the analyst target to at least 15%, improving reward-to-risk to at least 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter earnings beat streak, a forward P/E of 5.2x, and free cash flow well above net income together provide a margin of safety that may limit downside even in an adverse scenario. | ||
Shares trade at a forward P/E of 5.2x with a PEG ratio of 0.06, screening exceptionally cheap relative to earnings growth — and free cash flow exceeds reported net income by 56%, suggesting that stated earnings may understate economic earnings power.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow yield remains above 10% over the next four quarters and the forward P/E begins re-rating toward peer multiples.
CounterRevenue has declined 11% year over year, suggesting the cheap valuation may reflect rational market skepticism about the business's ability to sustain the current earnings run rate as the top line continues to contract.
Revenue has declined 11% year over year — a trajectory that, if sustained, would eventually compress the earnings base underpinning the currently attractive valuation and put the 4-quarter earnings beat streak at risk.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue returns to flat or positive growth year over year within the next two fiscal quarters.
CounterThe four-quarter earnings beat streak demonstrates the company has been delivering profitability improvements even as revenue contracts, indicating cost discipline may be partially buffering the topline impact.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four of the past four quarters — including two narrow near-in-line beats in the most recent two quarters following a large positive surprise the period before that — maintaining an unbroken beat streak even through periods of revenue contraction.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters while EPS in absolute dollars continues to grow.
CounterThe two most recent beats were approximately 1% each, suggesting the large upside from prior periods may have been a one-time base effect rather than ongoing execution strength, making the streak fragile going forward.
With the stock just 1.7% below the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk of 0.35-to-1, the near-term upside is substantially outweighed by the measured downside, making the setup unfavorable for new entry at current prices.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A more attractive setup would require a price reset that brings upside to the analyst target to at least 15%, improving reward-to-risk to at least 1.5-to-1.
CounterA four-quarter earnings beat streak, a forward P/E of 5.2x, and free cash flow well above net income together provide a margin of safety that may limit downside even in an adverse scenario.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 156% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -11%
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:48d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.19
Upside
-5.9%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.6; weakest: Momentum at 3.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.4, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 3.8, Peer rank at 4.1, and Quality at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Shares trade at a forward P/E of 5.2x with a PEG ratio of 0.06, screening exceptionally cheap relative to earnings growth — and free cash flow exceeds reported net income by 56%, suggesting that stated earnings may understate economic earnings power.
Trip ifForward P/E re-rates above 10x following material price appreciation that reduces the value discount.
- P2Revenue has declined 11% year over year — a trajectory that, if sustained, would eventually compress the earnings base underpinning the currently attractive valuation and put the 4-quarter earnings beat streak at risk.
Trip ifRevenue grows more than 5% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four of the past four quarters — including two narrow near-in-line beats in the most recent two quarters following a large positive surprise the period before that — maintaining an unbroken beat streak even through periods of revenue contraction.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4With the stock just 1.7% below the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk of 0.35-to-1, the near-term upside is substantially outweighed by the measured downside, making the setup unfavorable for new entry at current prices.
Trip ifUpside to analyst price target exceeds 15% following a price decline that resets reward-to-risk above 1.5.