Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.45
FBNC · Why this verdict
Why First Bancorp (FBNC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
First Bancorp has delivered three consecutive earnings beats averaging over 7% positive surprise and trades at a forward multiple of 12.2 times with a price-to-growth ratio of 0.44, but the stock has advanced to within less than 1% of its price target, leaving the risk/reward at 0.14-to-1; existing holders may maintain, but the setup does not support new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters — with an in-line result at the oldest quarter reviewed — producing an average positive surprise of approximately 7%; this consistent pattern of over-delivery indicates management is guiding conservatively relative to actual operating performance. Earnings | Over the next 12 months, the bank maintains a positive EPS surprise in at least three of four quarters, sustaining an average beat of 5% or more. | →Stable |
| CounterThree beats followed by an in-line result at the oldest quarter can signal that the beat streak is built on a low comparison base rather than durable execution improvement; as analysts revise estimates upward to reflect recent outperformance, the bar to beat rises and the streak may not extend. | ||
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume confirming accumulation, and a golden cross formation in place; this combination of price position and volume pattern suggests institutional buying is supporting the uptrend. Momentum breakdown | Over the next 12 months, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average with no sustained break below, and on-balance volume continues its upward trajectory. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is approaching its 52-week high with less than 3% remaining to that level, which historically increases the probability of profit-taking and can stall momentum even when the underlying trend is intact. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.2 times combined with a price-to-growth ratio of 0.44 places the stock in attractively valued territory relative to its earnings growth rate; for a bank demonstrating consistent execution and 31% net margins, this multiple leaves room for upward re-rating if growth continues. Valuation breakdown | Over the next 12 months, forward earnings estimates are revised upward by at least 5% and the stock sustains its current valuation range, maintaining the attractiveness of the entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterNo discernible competitive moat limits the bank's pricing power and long-run margin sustainability; a bank with a low moat trading at any premium to book value is susceptible to multiple compression if credit conditions deteriorate or deposit competition intensifies. | ||
With the stock just below the analyst consensus price target and only 0.7% of headroom remaining, the risk/reward of 0.14-to-1 does not clear any reasonable entry threshold; buyers at current prices are accepting roughly 5% downside exposure for less than 1% of potential upside. Price targets | Over the next 12 months, a pullback creates at least 8% headroom to the take-profit target, restoring a viable entry geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterIf operating results remain strong, analyst price targets are typically revised upward shortly after earnings, which would expand the implied upside from current prices and change the risk/reward calculus without requiring a stock pullback. | ||
The bank has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters — with an in-line result at the oldest quarter reviewed — producing an average positive surprise of approximately 7%; this consistent pattern of over-delivery indicates management is guiding conservatively relative to actual operating performance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Over the next 12 months, the bank maintains a positive EPS surprise in at least three of four quarters, sustaining an average beat of 5% or more.
CounterThree beats followed by an in-line result at the oldest quarter can signal that the beat streak is built on a low comparison base rather than durable execution improvement; as analysts revise estimates upward to reflect recent outperformance, the bar to beat rises and the streak may not extend.
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume confirming accumulation, and a golden cross formation in place; this combination of price position and volume pattern suggests institutional buying is supporting the uptrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Over the next 12 months, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average with no sustained break below, and on-balance volume continues its upward trajectory.
CounterThe stock is approaching its 52-week high with less than 3% remaining to that level, which historically increases the probability of profit-taking and can stall momentum even when the underlying trend is intact.
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.2 times combined with a price-to-growth ratio of 0.44 places the stock in attractively valued territory relative to its earnings growth rate; for a bank demonstrating consistent execution and 31% net margins, this multiple leaves room for upward re-rating if growth continues.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Over the next 12 months, forward earnings estimates are revised upward by at least 5% and the stock sustains its current valuation range, maintaining the attractiveness of the entry point.
CounterNo discernible competitive moat limits the bank's pricing power and long-run margin sustainability; a bank with a low moat trading at any premium to book value is susceptible to multiple compression if credit conditions deteriorate or deposit competition intensifies.
With the stock just below the analyst consensus price target and only 0.7% of headroom remaining, the risk/reward of 0.14-to-1 does not clear any reasonable entry threshold; buyers at current prices are accepting roughly 5% downside exposure for less than 1% of potential upside.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Over the next 12 months, a pullback creates at least 8% headroom to the take-profit target, restoring a viable entry geometry.
CounterIf operating results remain strong, analyst price targets are typically revised upward shortly after earnings, which would expand the implied upside from current prices and change the risk/reward calculus without requiring a stock pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.6 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,596,500 (0.100% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 3.4 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 0.4 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| beta | 8.0 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 153.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.90
Upside
-7.7%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 27d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 6.9; weakest: Peer rank at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.9, Growth at 6.8, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.7, Insider at 4.0, and Technical at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.90 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The bank has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters — with an in-line result at the oldest quarter reviewed — producing an average positive surprise of approximately 7%; this consistent pattern of over-delivery indicates management is guiding conservatively relative to actual operating performance.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume confirming accumulation, and a golden cross formation in place; this combination of price position and volume pattern suggests institutional buying is supporting the uptrend.
Trip ifStock closes below the 200-day moving average for 3 consecutive weeks.
- P3A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.2 times combined with a price-to-growth ratio of 0.44 places the stock in attractively valued territory relative to its earnings growth rate; for a bank demonstrating consistent execution and 31% net margins, this multiple leaves room for upward re-rating if growth continues.
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 18x without a corresponding upward revision to earnings estimates.
- P4With the stock just below the analyst consensus price target and only 0.7% of headroom remaining, the risk/reward of 0.14-to-1 does not clear any reasonable entry threshold; buyers at current prices are accepting roughly 5% downside exposure for less than 1% of potential upside.
Trip ifUpside to take-profit target exceeds 10% from current price.