Value
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.1 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 3.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.7x
- ▸PEG: 3.06
ETN · Why this verdict
Why Eaton Corporation (ETN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Eaton has built a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record, but the stock has grown fully priced at a 25.9x forward multiple with only 2.7% of room left to near-term resistance — deteriorating on-balance volume and an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.39-to-1 argue for patience rather than new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings of 25.9 times and a PEG ratio of 3.07, the stock is priced well above its growth rate, and less than 3% separates the current price from its near-term resistance target — there is minimal margin of safety for new buyers at current levels. Valuation breakdown | Thesis holds until the forward multiple compresses below 20x as earnings grow into the price, or until the analyst consensus target is raised to create fresh headroom. | →Stable |
| CounterPremium industrials with consistent execution can sustain elevated multiples for extended periods; a guidance raise or acceleration in end-market demand could make the current price look reasonable in retrospect. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 1.2%, suggesting management guides conservatively and delivers reliably against those targets. Earnings | EPS beats continue in at least two of the next four quarters, keeping the average surprise above zero. | →Stable |
| CounterBeat margins have been narrow — the largest single quarter came in at only 2.9% above estimates — so even a modest cost overage or demand softening could end the streak without much warning. | ||
Despite holding above its 200-day moving average, on-balance volume is in a downtrend — signaling that more volume is occurring on down days than up days — and the overall momentum reading sits at 3.7, below the 4.5 level required for a constructive technical setup. Momentum breakdown | A reversal here would require on-balance volume turning upward and momentum crossing above 4.5 and sustaining for at least two consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterRemaining above the 200-day moving average means the long-term uptrend is still formally intact; the current OBV divergence may represent sector rotation rather than a sustained exit from the name. | ||
Debt-to-equity of 1.1 introduces a moderate leverage burden, and free cash flow is converting at only 66% of net income — meaning roughly a third of reported earnings are not yet translating into cash available to shareholders. Quality breakdown | FCF conversion rising above 80% of net income for two consecutive annual reporting periods would signal this constraint has eased. | →Stable |
| CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 is manageable for a diversified industrial company; if end-market volume grows and working capital turns favorable, FCF conversion can recover without any structural change to the business. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 25.9 times and a PEG ratio of 3.07, the stock is priced well above its growth rate, and less than 3% separates the current price from its near-term resistance target — there is minimal margin of safety for new buyers at current levels.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Thesis holds until the forward multiple compresses below 20x as earnings grow into the price, or until the analyst consensus target is raised to create fresh headroom.
CounterPremium industrials with consistent execution can sustain elevated multiples for extended periods; a guidance raise or acceleration in end-market demand could make the current price look reasonable in retrospect.
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 1.2%, suggesting management guides conservatively and delivers reliably against those targets.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue in at least two of the next four quarters, keeping the average surprise above zero.
CounterBeat margins have been narrow — the largest single quarter came in at only 2.9% above estimates — so even a modest cost overage or demand softening could end the streak without much warning.
Despite holding above its 200-day moving average, on-balance volume is in a downtrend — signaling that more volume is occurring on down days than up days — and the overall momentum reading sits at 3.7, below the 4.5 level required for a constructive technical setup.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- A reversal here would require on-balance volume turning upward and momentum crossing above 4.5 and sustaining for at least two consecutive months.
CounterRemaining above the 200-day moving average means the long-term uptrend is still formally intact; the current OBV divergence may represent sector rotation rather than a sustained exit from the name.
Debt-to-equity of 1.1 introduces a moderate leverage burden, and free cash flow is converting at only 66% of net income — meaning roughly a third of reported earnings are not yet translating into cash available to shareholders.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF conversion rising above 80% of net income for two consecutive annual reporting periods would signal this constraint has eased.
CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 is manageable for a diversified industrial company; if end-market volume grows and working capital turns favorable, FCF conversion can recover without any structural change to the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.9 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 7.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 66% FCF/NI
Growth
3.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.1 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $8,224,544 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 0.5 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.92
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.1 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.37
Upside
-4.3%
Downside
11.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.37 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Quality at 5.7, and Catalyst at 5.5; the weakest are Growth at 3.4, Value at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 1.2%, suggesting management guides conservatively and delivers reliably against those targets.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2At a forward price-to-earnings of 25.9 times and a PEG ratio of 3.07, the stock is priced well above its growth rate, and less than 3% separates the current price from its near-term resistance target — there is minimal margin of safety for new buyers at current levels.
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 20x for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Despite holding above its 200-day moving average, on-balance volume is in a downtrend — signaling that more volume is occurring on down days than up days — and the overall momentum reading sits at 3.7, below the 4.5 level required for a constructive technical setup.
Trip ifOn-balance volume turns positive and momentum score rises above 4.5 for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Debt-to-equity of 1.1 introduces a moderate leverage burden, and free cash flow is converting at only 66% of net income — meaning roughly a third of reported earnings are not yet translating into cash available to shareholders.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion rises above 80% of net income for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.