Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 6.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.25
- ▸Attractively valued
ESTC · Why this verdict
Why Elastic (ESTC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.3 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 33%
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 126% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $6,673,100 (0.108% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:65d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.29
Upside
+13.7%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Catalyst at 7.5; weakest: Insider at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.1, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Momentum at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.