Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.01
- ▸Attractively valued
ESNT · Why this verdict
Why Essent Group (ESNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 54%
- ▸Rule of 40: 52 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 75 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
| erm sentiment | 3.9 |
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,661,682 (0.030% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 234.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:43d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.42
Upside
-4.3%
Downside
10.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.42 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.6, Value at 7.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Growth at 3.7, and Insider at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.