Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.34
- ▸Attractively valued
EQT · Why this verdict
Why EQT (EQT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
EQT is an attractively valued natural gas producer with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, 35% margins, a wide economic moat, and roughly 24% headroom to the analyst price target at a better than 7-to-1 favorable risk/reward; the principal near-term concern is that price momentum has fallen well below the minimum threshold — the stock sits beneath its 200-day moving average at near-capitulation RSI levels — while concentrated Appalachian Basin exposure adds structural sensitivity to regional price differentials and regulatory conditions.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With roughly 93% of production tied to the Marcellus Shale in the Appalachian Basin, the company carries three high-severity geographic concentration risks flagged in the annual filing, leaving cash flows highly sensitive to a single basin's infrastructure access, regional price differentials, and regulatory changes. Bear case | No adverse Appalachian-specific regulatory, infrastructure, or basis-differential event materially reduces realized prices over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep operational expertise in a single basin can be a competitive advantage, and the wide moat score may reflect the scale and cost efficiencies that a concentrated Marcellus focus delivers. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average upside surprise above 20%, indicating disciplined guidance and reliable operational execution. Earnings | EPS surprises remain positive for the next four consecutive quarters, sustaining the beat streak. | →Stable |
| CounterNatural gas price mean-reversion could compress realized revenues below current forward estimates, making earnings beats harder to sustain as commodity conditions normalize. | ||
The shares trade roughly 24% below the analyst price target, and the upside-to-downside geometry is approximately 7-to-1 in favor of the long — a level that clears the asymmetry bar by a wide margin. Price targets | Price converges toward the $63 analyst target over 12 months as operational results close the valuation gap. | →Stable |
| CounterIf natural gas prices mean-revert from elevated levels, the analyst target itself may be revised downward, pulling the apparent upside closer to the current price. | ||
The business carries 35% margins, a wide economic moat, a combined growth-plus-profitability score of 77, and a financial-health score of 8 out of 9, placing it among the highest-quality operators in its peer group. Quality breakdown | Gross margins remain above 30% and the financial-health score stays above 7 for four consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow currently converts at only 76% of net income — a quality warning — suggesting reported earnings overstate true cash generation; if that gap widens, the apparent quality deteriorates even if headline margins hold. | ||
The stock is trading beneath its 200-day moving average with an RSI near 21, consistent with capitulation-level selling pressure; momentum has failed the minimum threshold and has not yet reversed. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 50 and price closes back above the 200-day moving average within two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average is still trending upward at roughly +0.9% per month, suggesting the longer-term uptrend remains intact and the current weakness may be a temporary pullback rather than a confirmed trend reversal. | ||
With roughly 93% of production tied to the Marcellus Shale in the Appalachian Basin, the company carries three high-severity geographic concentration risks flagged in the annual filing, leaving cash flows highly sensitive to a single basin's infrastructure access, regional price differentials, and regulatory changes.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- No adverse Appalachian-specific regulatory, infrastructure, or basis-differential event materially reduces realized prices over the next 12 months.
CounterDeep operational expertise in a single basin can be a competitive advantage, and the wide moat score may reflect the scale and cost efficiencies that a concentrated Marcellus focus delivers.
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average upside surprise above 20%, indicating disciplined guidance and reliable operational execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprises remain positive for the next four consecutive quarters, sustaining the beat streak.
CounterNatural gas price mean-reversion could compress realized revenues below current forward estimates, making earnings beats harder to sustain as commodity conditions normalize.
The shares trade roughly 24% below the analyst price target, and the upside-to-downside geometry is approximately 7-to-1 in favor of the long — a level that clears the asymmetry bar by a wide margin.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price converges toward the $63 analyst target over 12 months as operational results close the valuation gap.
CounterIf natural gas prices mean-revert from elevated levels, the analyst target itself may be revised downward, pulling the apparent upside closer to the current price.
The business carries 35% margins, a wide economic moat, a combined growth-plus-profitability score of 77, and a financial-health score of 8 out of 9, placing it among the highest-quality operators in its peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Gross margins remain above 30% and the financial-health score stays above 7 for four consecutive quarters.
CounterFree cash flow currently converts at only 76% of net income — a quality warning — suggesting reported earnings overstate true cash generation; if that gap widens, the apparent quality deteriorates even if headline margins hold.
The stock is trading beneath its 200-day moving average with an RSI near 21, consistent with capitulation-level selling pressure; momentum has failed the minimum threshold and has not yet reversed.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 50 and price closes back above the 200-day moving average within two quarters.
CounterThe 200-day moving average is still trending upward at roughly +0.9% per month, suggesting the longer-term uptrend remains intact and the current weakness may be a temporary pullback rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 76% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 50% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 7.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $5,602,756 (0.017% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 8.4 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 128.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:4.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.48
Upside
+22.4%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 26d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:4.5>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.6, and Quality at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with an average upside surprise above 20%, indicating disciplined guidance and reliable operational execution.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The shares trade roughly 24% below the analyst price target, and the upside-to-downside geometry is approximately 7-to-1 in favor of the long — a level that clears the asymmetry bar by a wide margin.
Trip ifUpside to analyst price target compresses below 5% as price rises toward $60.
- P3The business carries 35% margins, a wide economic moat, a combined growth-plus-profitability score of 77, and a financial-health score of 8 out of 9, placing it among the highest-quality operators in its peer group.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion to net income falls below 50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4The stock is trading beneath its 200-day moving average with an RSI near 21, consistent with capitulation-level selling pressure; momentum has failed the minimum threshold and has not yet reversed.
Trip ifRSI rises above 50 and price closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions.
- P5With roughly 93% of production tied to the Marcellus Shale in the Appalachian Basin, the company carries three high-severity geographic concentration risks flagged in the annual filing, leaving cash flows highly sensitive to a single basin's infrastructure access, regional price differentials, and regulatory changes.
Trip ifAppalachian Basin share of total production falls below 80% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.