Value
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
CXT · Why this verdict
Why Crane NXT (CXT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Crane NXT offers a rare combination of steep value — approximately 9x forward earnings and 36.7% upside to the analyst target — four consecutive earnings beats, and strong revenue and earnings growth, while 19% short interest and single-source supplier dependence represent meaningful risks that must be navigated for the valuation gap to close.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Short interest at approximately 19% of float is among the highest-risk positioning levels for a company in this size range, and the accompanying implied volatility of roughly 126% raises the cost of participation — the level of bearish conviction suggests at least some well-informed participants see fundamental risk not visible in the headline numbers. Risk breakdown | If the bearish positioning is misplaced, short interest falls below 10% of float within two quarters as bears capitulate. | →Stable |
| CounterA high short interest with a 36.7% gap to target means that any positive catalyst capable of forcing short covering could amplify the rerating move significantly — the elevated positioning is a two-sided risk rather than a one-way headwind. | ||
At approximately 9x forward earnings with a minimal earnings growth multiple, shares offer roughly 36.7% upside to the analyst price target of $58.14 — a wide discount that historically attracts rerating when accompanied by continued earnings delivery. Valuation breakdown | If this thesis holds, shares advance to within 10% of the $58.14 target within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterShares are below the 200-day moving average with the average declining at roughly 5% per month — a cheap multiple can coexist with continued price erosion if technical sentiment remains negative, and 19% short interest signals that well-resourced investors are actively betting against the rerating. | ||
The company has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats — the most recent print came in 5.4% ahead of consensus, following three prior quarters of beats averaging roughly 2% — demonstrating consistent execution discipline across the full year. Earnings | If this streak continues, EPS surprises remain positive for each of the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe three quarters preceding the most recent print averaged only about 2% above consensus — a thin margin that is more vulnerable to a modest estimate revision than a wide beat; any quarter where guidance tightens could readily break the streak. | ||
Both revenue and earnings growth profiles score in the upper tier, and the analyst community has established a price target reflecting roughly 57% upside to current levels — signaling confidence that the current growth trajectory has durability worth paying for. Bull case | If this growth continues, revenue growth stays above 5% year-over-year for 4 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst price target of 57% over current levels implies significant multiple expansion in addition to earnings growth — if earnings growth moderates, even a modest downward revision in expectations could compress the multiple and limit actual returns to well below the headline upside figure. | ||
Dependence on single or sole-source suppliers creates a vulnerability where a disruption from a single vendor could interrupt production and damage revenue without an alternative source readily available — a risk flagged explicitly in the company's own risk disclosures. Bear case | If this concern is misplaced, EPS surprise stays above 5% for 4 consecutive quarters despite no reduction in sole-source dependence, demonstrating the concentration is not materially impairing the business. | →Stable |
| CounterSole-source supplier relationships in specialized industrial machinery often reflect proprietary technical partnerships that provide competitive barriers rather than simple concentration risk — the exclusivity may protect the moat rather than threaten production continuity. | ||
Short interest at approximately 19% of float is among the highest-risk positioning levels for a company in this size range, and the accompanying implied volatility of roughly 126% raises the cost of participation — the level of bearish conviction suggests at least some well-informed participants see fundamental risk not visible in the headline numbers.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- If the bearish positioning is misplaced, short interest falls below 10% of float within two quarters as bears capitulate.
CounterA high short interest with a 36.7% gap to target means that any positive catalyst capable of forcing short covering could amplify the rerating move significantly — the elevated positioning is a two-sided risk rather than a one-way headwind.
At approximately 9x forward earnings with a minimal earnings growth multiple, shares offer roughly 36.7% upside to the analyst price target of $58.14 — a wide discount that historically attracts rerating when accompanied by continued earnings delivery.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- If this thesis holds, shares advance to within 10% of the $58.14 target within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows.
CounterShares are below the 200-day moving average with the average declining at roughly 5% per month — a cheap multiple can coexist with continued price erosion if technical sentiment remains negative, and 19% short interest signals that well-resourced investors are actively betting against the rerating.
The company has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats — the most recent print came in 5.4% ahead of consensus, following three prior quarters of beats averaging roughly 2% — demonstrating consistent execution discipline across the full year.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- If this streak continues, EPS surprises remain positive for each of the next four quarters.
CounterThe three quarters preceding the most recent print averaged only about 2% above consensus — a thin margin that is more vulnerable to a modest estimate revision than a wide beat; any quarter where guidance tightens could readily break the streak.
Both revenue and earnings growth profiles score in the upper tier, and the analyst community has established a price target reflecting roughly 57% upside to current levels — signaling confidence that the current growth trajectory has durability worth paying for.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- If this growth continues, revenue growth stays above 5% year-over-year for 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe analyst price target of 57% over current levels implies significant multiple expansion in addition to earnings growth — if earnings growth moderates, even a modest downward revision in expectations could compress the multiple and limit actual returns to well below the headline upside figure.
Dependence on single or sole-source suppliers creates a vulnerability where a disruption from a single vendor could interrupt production and damage revenue without an alternative source readily available — a risk flagged explicitly in the company's own risk disclosures.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If this concern is misplaced, EPS surprise stays above 5% for 4 consecutive quarters despite no reduction in sole-source dependence, demonstrating the concentration is not materially impairing the business.
CounterSole-source supplier relationships in specialized industrial machinery often reflect proprietary technical partnerships that provide competitive barriers rather than simple concentration risk — the exclusivity may protect the moat rather than threaten production continuity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.4 |
| Op margin | 4.8 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 130% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $1,160,078 (0.044% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 3.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.4 |
| days to cover | 0.8 |
| volatility | 1.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸High short interest: 19%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 158.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.84
Upside
+27.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.6; weakest: Technical at 2.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Growth at 8.4, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1At approximately 9x forward earnings with a minimal earnings growth multiple, shares offer roughly 36.7% upside to the analyst price target of $58.14 — a wide discount that historically attracts rerating when accompanied by continued earnings delivery.
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x from the current approximately 9.0x, signaling the valuation discount has been recognized by the market.
- P2The company has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats — the most recent print came in 5.4% ahead of consensus, following three prior quarters of beats averaging roughly 2% — demonstrating consistent execution discipline across the full year.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Both revenue and earnings growth profiles score in the upper tier, and the analyst community has established a price target reflecting roughly 57% upside to current levels — signaling confidence that the current growth trajectory has durability worth paying for.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Short interest at approximately 19% of float is among the highest-risk positioning levels for a company in this size range, and the accompanying implied volatility of roughly 126% raises the cost of participation — the level of bearish conviction suggests at least some well-informed participants see fundamental risk not visible in the headline numbers.
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% of float for 2 consecutive months.
- P5Dependence on single or sole-source suppliers creates a vulnerability where a disruption from a single vendor could interrupt production and damage revenue without an alternative source readily available — a risk flagged explicitly in the company's own risk disclosures.
Trip ifEPS surprise stays above 5% for 4 consecutive quarters without any supply disruption disclosure in earnings communications.