Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.73
- ▸Attractively valued
CRM · Why this verdict
Why Salesforce (CRM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A high-quality franchise with exceptional cash conversion and four consecutive earnings beats trades at an attractive valuation, yet a confirmed technical downtrend and death-cross configuration prevent a compelling near-term entry; the setup favors patience until the chart recovers above its long-term trend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.6 times and a PEG ratio below 1.0, the stock appears attractively priced relative to its growth trajectory, with approximately 43% headroom remaining to the analyst consensus target near $235. Valuation breakdown | Multiple expansion or price convergence toward the analyst target within 12 months; PEG remaining below 1.0 throughout the period. | →Stable |
| CounterSoft revenue momentum in recent periods could compress forward earnings estimates, narrowing the apparent valuation discount and making the current multiple less attractive than it appears. | ||
The business has beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 23%, while free cash flow has been converting at more than twice the rate of net income — signaling that reported earnings meaningfully understate the cash being generated. Earnings | EPS beats continue for at least 2 more quarters and free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFour consecutive beats may reflect a period of conservative guidance that reverts; if revenue growth slows, the leverage on the balance sheet (debt-to-equity of 1.2) could constrain cash generation and compress the conversion ratio. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average itself declining at approximately 4.6% per month, and on-balance volume is falling — together forming a confirmed technical downtrend that makes adding new capital premature. Momentum breakdown | A sustained recovery above the 200-day moving average accompanied by improving on-balance volume would signal that the technical headwind has cleared. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical downtrends can reverse sharply on positive earnings or macro catalysts, and the underlying earnings quality provides a fundamental floor; waiting for technical confirmation risks missing a rapid re-rating. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 1.92 indicates that options traders are positioning defensively at roughly twice the rate of bullish bets, a configuration that can amplify downside if any negative catalyst materializes before the technical picture improves. Risk breakdown | The put-to-call ratio drifts below 1.2 over the next 6-12 months as the technical environment improves and defensive hedging unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios can act as contrarian indicators by representing peak pessimism ahead of a mean-reversion rally, particularly when the fundamental earnings profile remains intact. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.6 times and a PEG ratio below 1.0, the stock appears attractively priced relative to its growth trajectory, with approximately 43% headroom remaining to the analyst consensus target near $235.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Multiple expansion or price convergence toward the analyst target within 12 months; PEG remaining below 1.0 throughout the period.
CounterSoft revenue momentum in recent periods could compress forward earnings estimates, narrowing the apparent valuation discount and making the current multiple less attractive than it appears.
The business has beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 23%, while free cash flow has been converting at more than twice the rate of net income — signaling that reported earnings meaningfully understate the cash being generated.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue for at least 2 more quarters and free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income over the next four reported quarters.
CounterFour consecutive beats may reflect a period of conservative guidance that reverts; if revenue growth slows, the leverage on the balance sheet (debt-to-equity of 1.2) could constrain cash generation and compress the conversion ratio.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average itself declining at approximately 4.6% per month, and on-balance volume is falling — together forming a confirmed technical downtrend that makes adding new capital premature.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- A sustained recovery above the 200-day moving average accompanied by improving on-balance volume would signal that the technical headwind has cleared.
CounterTechnical downtrends can reverse sharply on positive earnings or macro catalysts, and the underlying earnings quality provides a fundamental floor; waiting for technical confirmation risks missing a rapid re-rating.
A put-to-call ratio of 1.92 indicates that options traders are positioning defensively at roughly twice the rate of bullish bets, a configuration that can amplify downside if any negative catalyst materializes before the technical picture improves.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio drifts below 1.2 over the next 6-12 months as the technical environment improves and defensive hedging unwinds.
CounterElevated put/call ratios can act as contrarian indicators by representing peak pessimism ahead of a mean-reversion rally, particularly when the fundamental earnings profile remains intact.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.7 |
| Net margin | 9.4 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 206% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 52 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 7, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 67%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 0.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 6.8 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $95
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 115.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:6.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:69d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
6.37
Upside
+54.0%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 7, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:6.4>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.1; weakest: Momentum at 1.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Growth at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.9; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Peer rank at 4.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business has beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 23%, while free cash flow has been converting at more than twice the rate of net income — signaling that reported earnings meaningfully understate the cash being generated.
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.6 times and a PEG ratio below 1.0, the stock appears attractively priced relative to its growth trajectory, with approximately 43% headroom remaining to the analyst consensus target near $235.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $190 from the current level near $235, eliminating meaningful valuation headroom.
- P3The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average itself declining at approximately 4.6% per month, and on-balance volume is falling — together forming a confirmed technical downtrend that makes adding new capital premature.
Trip ifStock crosses above the 200-day moving average and holds above it for 10 consecutive trading days.
- P4A put-to-call ratio of 1.92 indicates that options traders are positioning defensively at roughly twice the rate of bullish bets, a configuration that can amplify downside if any negative catalyst materializes before the technical picture improves.
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 and stays there for 4 consecutive weeks.