Value
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.1 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.4 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.91
CR · Why this verdict
Why Crane (CR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Crane Company is a high-quality industrial franchise with three consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 11% above consensus and 25% year-over-year revenue growth that leads its industry peer group, but the stock sits within 0.8% of near-term resistance at a forward multiple of 27.2 times earnings with overbought momentum indicators, leaving the current risk/reward unfavorable at today's entry price despite the underlying business quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With RSI at 78, a moving-average death cross in the background, and a note flagging late-cycle distribution risk, near-term momentum is extended, though the MACD is improving and does not yet confirm a reversal. Momentum breakdown | RSI normalizes to the 50-60 range within two months without a material price breakdown, confirming the overbought condition resolves through consolidation rather than correction. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is rising, the MACD is improving despite the death cross, and a recovery setup is underway — these signals suggest underlying buying interest may absorb the overbought condition without a significant pullback. | ||
Three consecutive quarterly earnings beats averaging roughly 11% above consensus demonstrate reliable above-expectation delivery and suggest management guidance discipline. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least two of the next two reported quarters, with average surprise staying above 8%, sustaining the track record. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow at 73% of net income represents a gap between reported earnings and actual cash generation; if that ratio narrows further, the quality of the beat streak would be called into question. | ||
At 27.2 times forward earnings and a price-to-growth ratio of 2.81, the stock screens expensive versus peers and provides little cushion if growth momentum decelerates even modestly. Bear case | The forward multiple compresses toward 22x as earnings grow into the current price, reducing the valuation premium to a level supported by the actual growth rate. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth of 25% year-over-year has placed this company as an industry growth leader; if that pace continues, the current multiple may remain justified, keeping the price-to-growth ratio from expanding further. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects strong and broad-based financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, supporting the premium valuation. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, sustaining the quality profile that underpins the stock's premium multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow at 73% of net income is a modest divergence between reported profits and actual cash; if that gap widens, the quality score could soften and erode the valuation rationale. | ||
With only 0.8% headroom to the near-term resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward ratio, the current entry point offers essentially no upside cushion against the potential downside, making new positions unattractive today. Price targets | A more compelling entry emerges if the stock pulls back toward stronger support, creating a risk/reward geometry more favorable than the current 0.14-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong earnings consistency and rising on-balance volume could push the stock above current resistance, opening a breakout scenario where the forward setup improves materially. | ||
With RSI at 78, a moving-average death cross in the background, and a note flagging late-cycle distribution risk, near-term momentum is extended, though the MACD is improving and does not yet confirm a reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI normalizes to the 50-60 range within two months without a material price breakdown, confirming the overbought condition resolves through consolidation rather than correction.
CounterOn-balance volume is rising, the MACD is improving despite the death cross, and a recovery setup is underway — these signals suggest underlying buying interest may absorb the overbought condition without a significant pullback.
Three consecutive quarterly earnings beats averaging roughly 11% above consensus demonstrate reliable above-expectation delivery and suggest management guidance discipline.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least two of the next two reported quarters, with average surprise staying above 8%, sustaining the track record.
CounterFree cash flow at 73% of net income represents a gap between reported earnings and actual cash generation; if that ratio narrows further, the quality of the beat streak would be called into question.
At 27.2 times forward earnings and a price-to-growth ratio of 2.81, the stock screens expensive versus peers and provides little cushion if growth momentum decelerates even modestly.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The forward multiple compresses toward 22x as earnings grow into the current price, reducing the valuation premium to a level supported by the actual growth rate.
CounterRevenue growth of 25% year-over-year has placed this company as an industry growth leader; if that pace continues, the current multiple may remain justified, keeping the price-to-growth ratio from expanding further.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects strong and broad-based financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, supporting the premium valuation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months, sustaining the quality profile that underpins the stock's premium multiple.
CounterFree cash flow at 73% of net income is a modest divergence between reported profits and actual cash; if that gap widens, the quality score could soften and erode the valuation rationale.
With only 0.8% headroom to the near-term resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward ratio, the current entry point offers essentially no upside cushion against the potential downside, making new positions unattractive today.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A more compelling entry emerges if the stock pulls back toward stronger support, creating a risk/reward geometry more favorable than the current 0.14-to-1.
CounterStrong earnings consistency and rising on-balance volume could push the stock above current resistance, opening a breakout scenario where the forward setup improves materially.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 6.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 9.9 |
| Net margin | 6.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 85)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 4.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $26,607 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 9.8 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 48.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.98
Upside
-14.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.98 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, Quality at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Value at 3.6, and Growth at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Three consecutive quarterly earnings beats averaging roughly 11% above consensus demonstrate reliable above-expectation delivery and suggest management guidance discipline.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2At 27.2 times forward earnings and a price-to-growth ratio of 2.81, the stock screens expensive versus peers and provides little cushion if growth momentum decelerates even modestly.
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 22x from the current 27.2x for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3With RSI at 78, a moving-average death cross in the background, and a note flagging late-cycle distribution risk, near-term momentum is extended, though the MACD is improving and does not yet confirm a reversal.
Trip ifPrice advances more than 12% from current $206.57 without RSI falling below 60 at any point, confirming the overbought reading did not precede a pullback.
- P4A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects strong and broad-based financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, supporting the premium valuation.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P5With only 0.8% headroom to the near-term resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward ratio, the current entry point offers essentially no upside cushion against the potential downside, making new positions unattractive today.
Trip ifPrice retreats more than 10% from current $206.57 to below $185.91, creating a materially improved entry point and better risk/reward geometry.