Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
- ▸Attractively valued
COLM · Why this verdict
Why Columbia Sportswear (COLM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Back-to-back outsized earnings beats—85% and 45% above estimates in the two most recent quarters—demonstrate sharply improved execution, but the stock is already priced near its resistance target with only 1.2% headroom, an unfavorable 0.21-to-1 risk/reward, and a dual supplier concentration risk spanning 80% of footwear production that keeps the setup from being compelling at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The two most recent quarters produced positive EPS surprises of 85% and 45% respectively, and the company has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters—a sharp improvement in execution that the stock price has only partially reflected. Earnings | Beat rate holds at 3 of 4 or better over the next year, with average positive surprises above 20%, indicating the improved execution is structural rather than one-off. | →Stable |
| CounterOutsized surprise percentages often arise when consensus estimates are near a trough; as analysts recalibrate upward, the surprise magnitude naturally compresses even if the business continues to execute well. | ||
Approximately 80% of footwear production is concentrated among five manufacturers and certain proprietary materials come from limited or single sources, leaving the business exposed to any disruption in that narrow supplier base. Bear case | If concentration risk eases, top-5 footwear manufacturer concentration should fall below 60% of production as the company diversifies its sourcing network over the medium term. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep supplier relationships and concentrated sourcing can provide preferential production access and cost efficiencies that more diversified competitors lack; the risk is asymmetric only when disruptions occur, which long-standing partnerships can reduce. | ||
With only 1.2% headroom to the $67.68 resistance target and a risk/reward of 0.21-to-1, the current setup does not justify initiating or adding exposure—even with improving fundamentals, the geometry favors patience over action. Price targets | Either a pullback that restores a more favorable entry point or a sustained break above $67.68 on strong volume would separately make the setup actionable. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock with back-to-back large earnings beats can clear technical resistance quickly on the next catalyst; a 1.2% gap to the target is not a meaningful structural barrier when underlying momentum is accelerating. | ||
Free cash flow is running at roughly 74% of reported net income—below full conversion—while 13% of the float is sold short, creating a modest earnings-quality concern and an investor skepticism overhang that has not yet fully cleared. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion rises above 90% of reported net income and short interest falls below 5% over the next two quarters as earnings quality normalizes and bearish positioning unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterA 74% free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio in a branded apparel business may simply reflect normal working-capital seasonality rather than a structural cash-flow problem; it would only become a genuine concern if the ratio deteriorated further. | ||
The two most recent quarters produced positive EPS surprises of 85% and 45% respectively, and the company has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters—a sharp improvement in execution that the stock price has only partially reflected.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat rate holds at 3 of 4 or better over the next year, with average positive surprises above 20%, indicating the improved execution is structural rather than one-off.
CounterOutsized surprise percentages often arise when consensus estimates are near a trough; as analysts recalibrate upward, the surprise magnitude naturally compresses even if the business continues to execute well.
Approximately 80% of footwear production is concentrated among five manufacturers and certain proprietary materials come from limited or single sources, leaving the business exposed to any disruption in that narrow supplier base.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If concentration risk eases, top-5 footwear manufacturer concentration should fall below 60% of production as the company diversifies its sourcing network over the medium term.
CounterDeep supplier relationships and concentrated sourcing can provide preferential production access and cost efficiencies that more diversified competitors lack; the risk is asymmetric only when disruptions occur, which long-standing partnerships can reduce.
With only 1.2% headroom to the $67.68 resistance target and a risk/reward of 0.21-to-1, the current setup does not justify initiating or adding exposure—even with improving fundamentals, the geometry favors patience over action.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Either a pullback that restores a more favorable entry point or a sustained break above $67.68 on strong volume would separately make the setup actionable.
CounterA stock with back-to-back large earnings beats can clear technical resistance quickly on the next catalyst; a 1.2% gap to the target is not a meaningful structural barrier when underlying momentum is accelerating.
Free cash flow is running at roughly 74% of reported net income—below full conversion—while 13% of the float is sold short, creating a modest earnings-quality concern and an investor skepticism overhang that has not yet fully cleared.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion rises above 90% of reported net income and short interest falls below 5% over the next two quarters as earnings quality normalizes and bearish positioning unwinds.
CounterA 74% free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio in a branded apparel business may simply reflect normal working-capital seasonality rather than a structural cash-flow problem; it would only become a genuine concern if the ratio deteriorated further.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 74% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 9.0 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $906,902 (0.027% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $30
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 5 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 186.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
-0.78
Upside
-4.8%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 7.8; weakest: Momentum at 2.5. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Value at 7.2, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Insider at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The two most recent quarters produced positive EPS surprises of 85% and 45% respectively, and the company has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters—a sharp improvement in execution that the stock price has only partially reflected.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the recent execution improvement.
- P2Approximately 80% of footwear production is concentrated among five manufacturers and certain proprietary materials come from limited or single sources, leaving the business exposed to any disruption in that narrow supplier base.
Trip ifTop-5 footwear manufacturer concentration falls below 60% of production volume, indicating meaningful supply-chain diversification has occurred.
- P3With only 1.2% headroom to the $67.68 resistance target and a risk/reward of 0.21-to-1, the current setup does not justify initiating or adding exposure—even with improving fundamentals, the geometry favors patience over action.
Trip ifPrice closes above $67.68 for 5 consecutive trading days, breaking resistance and resetting the upside geometry.
- P4Free cash flow is running at roughly 74% of reported net income—below full conversion—while 13% of the float is sold short, creating a modest earnings-quality concern and an investor skepticism overhang that has not yet fully cleared.
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above 90% of reported net income for 2 consecutive quarters, eliminating the earnings-quality concern.