Value
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 43.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.19
COHU · Why this verdict
Why Cohu (COHU) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Two consecutive large earnings misses, a stock already trading above its resistance target with a negative risk/reward ratio, an 18% short interest the data characterizes as warranted, and a quality profile below the minimum acceptable floor combine to present a comprehensively cautionary picture — the weight of evidence does not support new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality dimension scores 3.5 out of 10, falling below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0, indicating that profitability metrics do not yet meet the standard required for position eligibility despite positive free cash flow at a 14% FCF margin. Warnings | FCF margin expanding above 20% for 2 consecutive quarters would signal improving margin quality sufficient to reassess the quality floor. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is positive and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects balance-sheet integrity; the quality shortfall may be cyclical rather than structural if the 29% revenue growth continues to compound through the income statement. | ||
The company has missed consensus estimates in each of the two most recent quarters — by -68% and -342% respectively — abruptly reversing what had been a beat streak and representing a sharp deterioration in near-term earnings predictability. Earnings | Returning to a positive EPS surprise for each of the next 2 consecutive quarters would signal that the miss streak was transient and predictability has been restored. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two earlier quarters in the streak were beats of 69.7% and 6.5%, and reported revenue growth of 29% year over year suggests the underlying business may be gaining traction even as near-term estimates have proven difficult to clear. | ||
The stock is already trading above the resistance level that defines the take-profit target, leaving essentially no upside headroom and a reward-to-risk ratio of -0.03-to-1 — a configuration where the risk/reward geometry is fully inverted against new buyers. Price targets | A pullback of more than 10% from $64.05, bringing the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1, would create a more favorable entry geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at 70 and a rising OBV indicate near-term momentum remains positive; continued strength could push the take-profit target higher and restore a favorable setup without requiring a price pullback. | ||
Short interest stands at 18% of the float, a level the data explicitly characterizes as warranted given the earnings and quality backdrop, indicating the short thesis is well-supported and the stock faces meaningful ongoing selling pressure. Risk | Short interest declining below 10% alongside 2 consecutive positive EPS surprises would indicate the bear thesis is being unwound. | →Stable |
| CounterA high short interest also creates the potential for a sharp squeeze if results improve; any positive catalyst — better-than-feared earnings or a sector re-rating — could force shorts to cover rapidly and amplify upside. | ||
The quality dimension scores 3.5 out of 10, falling below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0, indicating that profitability metrics do not yet meet the standard required for position eligibility despite positive free cash flow at a 14% FCF margin.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- FCF margin expanding above 20% for 2 consecutive quarters would signal improving margin quality sufficient to reassess the quality floor.
CounterFree cash flow is positive and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects balance-sheet integrity; the quality shortfall may be cyclical rather than structural if the 29% revenue growth continues to compound through the income statement.
The company has missed consensus estimates in each of the two most recent quarters — by -68% and -342% respectively — abruptly reversing what had been a beat streak and representing a sharp deterioration in near-term earnings predictability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Returning to a positive EPS surprise for each of the next 2 consecutive quarters would signal that the miss streak was transient and predictability has been restored.
CounterThe two earlier quarters in the streak were beats of 69.7% and 6.5%, and reported revenue growth of 29% year over year suggests the underlying business may be gaining traction even as near-term estimates have proven difficult to clear.
The stock is already trading above the resistance level that defines the take-profit target, leaving essentially no upside headroom and a reward-to-risk ratio of -0.03-to-1 — a configuration where the risk/reward geometry is fully inverted against new buyers.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback of more than 10% from $64.05, bringing the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1, would create a more favorable entry geometry.
CounterRSI at 70 and a rising OBV indicate near-term momentum remains positive; continued strength could push the take-profit target higher and restore a favorable setup without requiring a price pullback.
Short interest stands at 18% of the float, a level the data explicitly characterizes as warranted given the earnings and quality backdrop, indicating the short thesis is well-supported and the stock faces meaningful ongoing selling pressure.
→StableRisk
- Expectation
- Short interest declining below 10% alongside 2 consecutive positive EPS surprises would indicate the bear thesis is being unwound.
CounterA high short interest also creates the potential for a sharp squeeze if results improve; any positive catalyst — better-than-feared earnings or a sector re-rating — could force shorts to cover rapidly and amplify upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 14%, FCF yield 2.3%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 3.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $4,248,016 (0.141% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.1%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.7 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 18%
- ▸High IV: 84%
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.36
Upside
-20.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.62>1.3, MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.9, Sentiment at 5.7, and Value at 5.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.3, Insider at 3.4, and Quality at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has missed consensus estimates in each of the two most recent quarters — by -68% and -342% respectively — abruptly reversing what had been a beat streak and representing a sharp deterioration in near-term earnings predictability.
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the miss streak.
- P2The stock is already trading above the resistance level that defines the take-profit target, leaving essentially no upside headroom and a reward-to-risk ratio of -0.03-to-1 — a configuration where the risk/reward geometry is fully inverted against new buyers.
Trip ifPrice pulls back more than 10% from $64.05, bringing the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1.
- P3Short interest stands at 18% of the float, a level the data explicitly characterizes as warranted given the earnings and quality backdrop, indicating the short thesis is well-supported and the stock faces meaningful ongoing selling pressure.
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% for 2 consecutive monthly data points.
- P4The quality dimension scores 3.5 out of 10, falling below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0, indicating that profitability metrics do not yet meet the standard required for position eligibility despite positive free cash flow at a 14% FCF margin.
Trip ifFCF margin expands above 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.