Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 5.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.43
CNM · Why this verdict
Why Core & Main (CNM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CNM faces a confirmed price downtrend with a hard technical block — the stock sits below the 200-day moving average with a slope declining at -4.2% over 30 days and falling volume on balance — while 67% of revenue is concentrated in a single product category, a C-suite officer departure has been recently disclosed, and revenue growth is effectively flat; a 27% analyst upside target and reasonable forward valuation provide a floor but are insufficient to overcome the technical and structural headwinds at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 15.5x, a PEG of 1.44, and 27% analyst upside from current levels suggest valuation has not become stretched even as the price has retreated, providing a margin of safety if fundamentals stabilize. Sentiment breakdown | Price closes within 5% of the $54.54 take-profit level over the next 12 months as the downtrend resolves and estimates hold. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets are lagging indicators, and a deteriorating revenue trajectory may trigger estimate cuts that reduce implied upside before the stock can recover — at which point the valuation cushion narrows or disappears. | ||
The stock is below the 200-day moving average with the slope declining at -4.2% over 30 days and on-balance volume falling, confirming sustained selling pressure that has triggered a hard technical block preventing new entry. Momentum breakdown | Price closes above the 200-day moving average for 20 consecutive trading days and on-balance volume reverses to a rising trend, signaling the downtrend has been broken. | →Stable |
| CounterThe technical weakness may reflect cyclical sector softness rather than a company-specific deterioration; if infrastructure spending inflects positively, volume could recover sharply and quickly reverse the trend. | ||
Revenue is effectively flat year-over-year and 67% of sales are concentrated in a single product category — pipes, valves, and fittings — leaving the business with limited buffer if demand in that segment softens. Bear case | Revenue grows above 5% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, demonstrating demand recovery or meaningful expansion beyond the core product concentration. | →Stable |
| CounterDominance within a single high-share product category can be a competitive advantage; stable, repeat-purchase infrastructure products tend to generate predictable cash flows that justify the apparent concentration. | ||
A recent officer departure or appointment disclosed in an 8-K filing introduces near-term organizational uncertainty at a time when the business already faces tepid revenue growth and a confirmed price downtrend. Gates warning | EPS surprise exceeds 0% for two consecutive quarters following the transition, indicating the leadership change has not disrupted operational delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterLeadership transitions are common in industrial distribution and often reflect orderly succession planning rather than distress; the neutral insider signal and zero insider selling in the past 90 days support the view that the change is not adversarial. | ||
A forward P/E of 15.5x, a PEG of 1.44, and 27% analyst upside from current levels suggest valuation has not become stretched even as the price has retreated, providing a margin of safety if fundamentals stabilize.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes within 5% of the $54.54 take-profit level over the next 12 months as the downtrend resolves and estimates hold.
CounterAnalyst targets are lagging indicators, and a deteriorating revenue trajectory may trigger estimate cuts that reduce implied upside before the stock can recover — at which point the valuation cushion narrows or disappears.
The stock is below the 200-day moving average with the slope declining at -4.2% over 30 days and on-balance volume falling, confirming sustained selling pressure that has triggered a hard technical block preventing new entry.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes above the 200-day moving average for 20 consecutive trading days and on-balance volume reverses to a rising trend, signaling the downtrend has been broken.
CounterThe technical weakness may reflect cyclical sector softness rather than a company-specific deterioration; if infrastructure spending inflects positively, volume could recover sharply and quickly reverse the trend.
Revenue is effectively flat year-over-year and 67% of sales are concentrated in a single product category — pipes, valves, and fittings — leaving the business with limited buffer if demand in that segment softens.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue grows above 5% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, demonstrating demand recovery or meaningful expansion beyond the core product concentration.
CounterDominance within a single high-share product category can be a competitive advantage; stable, repeat-purchase infrastructure products tend to generate predictable cash flows that justify the apparent concentration.
A recent officer departure or appointment disclosed in an 8-K filing introduces near-term organizational uncertainty at a time when the business already faces tepid revenue growth and a confirmed price downtrend.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 0% for two consecutive quarters following the transition, indicating the leadership change has not disrupted operational delivery.
CounterLeadership transitions are common in industrial distribution and often reflect orderly succession planning rather than distress; the neutral insider signal and zero insider selling in the past 90 days support the view that the change is not adversarial.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.0 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 2.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.9 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $162,754 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 6.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.7 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:74d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.64
Upside
+14.5%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.1<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.64 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.0, Value at 6.6, and Technical at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 1.1, Growth at 3.2, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The stock is below the 200-day moving average with the slope declining at -4.2% over 30 days and on-balance volume falling, confirming sustained selling pressure that has triggered a hard technical block preventing new entry.
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for 20 consecutive trading days.
- P2Revenue is effectively flat year-over-year and 67% of sales are concentrated in a single product category — pipes, valves, and fittings — leaving the business with limited buffer if demand in that segment softens.
Trip ifRevenue grows above 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3A recent officer departure or appointment disclosed in an 8-K filing introduces near-term organizational uncertainty at a time when the business already faces tepid revenue growth and a confirmed price downtrend.
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters following the officer transition.
- P4A forward P/E of 15.5x, a PEG of 1.44, and 27% analyst upside from current levels suggest valuation has not become stretched even as the price has retreated, providing a margin of safety if fundamentals stabilize.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $50.00 per share, dropping below the current stock price and eliminating the upside cushion.