Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 6.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
CDE · Why this verdict
Why Coeur Mining (CDE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revenue growth of 138% year-over-year, operating margins of 31%, and a forward multiple of 9.0x at a PEG of 0.02 present a compelling combination of growth and value with roughly 27% upside to the analyst price target and a favorable risk/reward of approximately 3.9-to-1; the principal risk is a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.4 that amplifies any earnings shortfall, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.58 signals hedging activity worth monitoring.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 138% year-over-year, making this the growth leader within its industry peer group; even at a fraction of that rate, the current valuation provides meaningful room for upside as the market prices in a higher earnings trajectory. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 30% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the inflection is durable rather than a one-period event. | →Stable |
| CounterTriple-digit revenue growth is nearly always non-recurring; the base period likely contained a trough of operational or production weakness, and growth rates will compress materially as comparisons normalize, potentially disappointing a market that extrapolates the current pace. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.02 indicate the market is pricing in minimal optimism, while the analyst consensus implies roughly 46% upside from current levels — a spread that suggests significant undervaluation if the earnings trajectory is maintained. Valuation breakdown | The stock reaches within 10% of the analyst consensus target within 12 months, or the consensus target is revised upward as earnings continue to beat or match expectations. | →Stable |
| CounterA heavily leveraged balance sheet at 7.4 times debt-to-equity means a single quarter of earnings weakness could prompt material analyst target downgrades and erode the apparent upside quickly; the cheap multiple may reflect that leverage risk rather than a genuine valuation gap. | ||
Operating margins of 31%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and strong return metrics across the asset base indicate a business generating real profitability on its revenue, lending credibility to the high growth figure and supporting the quality of reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Operating margin stays above 20% and Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow at only 64% of net income raises the question of whether reported earnings overstate true cash generation; if capital requirements rise to sustain the growth rate, margins and free cash flow could compress simultaneously, making the quality profile less durable than the current score suggests. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 7.4 is the primary structural risk in this setup; at that leverage level, a modest decline in revenue or cash flow can disproportionately impair equity value and limit the company's ability to finance its growth ambitions. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio falls below 4.0 within 12 months as operating cash generation reduces outstanding obligations. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong revenue growth and 31% operating margins suggest the company is generating significant cash to service its debt; if growth continues, de-leveraging may occur organically faster than the current balance sheet implies, reducing this risk materially. | ||
The stock is pulling back while the 200-day moving average is still rising at roughly 6.4% per month and on-balance volume continues to accumulate, suggesting the current weakness is a pause within a broader uptrend rather than confirmed trend deterioration. Momentum breakdown | Price returns above the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters and momentum score rises above 7.0. | →Stable |
| CounterA gap up of roughly 8% followed by a retreat below the 200-day moving average increases the probability of continued near-term weakness, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.58 signals that options participants are hedging for additional downside before any recovery; the gap may need to fully fill before buyers regain control. | ||
Revenue grew 138% year-over-year, making this the growth leader within its industry peer group; even at a fraction of that rate, the current valuation provides meaningful room for upside as the market prices in a higher earnings trajectory.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 30% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the inflection is durable rather than a one-period event.
CounterTriple-digit revenue growth is nearly always non-recurring; the base period likely contained a trough of operational or production weakness, and growth rates will compress materially as comparisons normalize, potentially disappointing a market that extrapolates the current pace.
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.02 indicate the market is pricing in minimal optimism, while the analyst consensus implies roughly 46% upside from current levels — a spread that suggests significant undervaluation if the earnings trajectory is maintained.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches within 10% of the analyst consensus target within 12 months, or the consensus target is revised upward as earnings continue to beat or match expectations.
CounterA heavily leveraged balance sheet at 7.4 times debt-to-equity means a single quarter of earnings weakness could prompt material analyst target downgrades and erode the apparent upside quickly; the cheap multiple may reflect that leverage risk rather than a genuine valuation gap.
Operating margins of 31%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and strong return metrics across the asset base indicate a business generating real profitability on its revenue, lending credibility to the high growth figure and supporting the quality of reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin stays above 20% and Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow at only 64% of net income raises the question of whether reported earnings overstate true cash generation; if capital requirements rise to sustain the growth rate, margins and free cash flow could compress simultaneously, making the quality profile less durable than the current score suggests.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 7.4 is the primary structural risk in this setup; at that leverage level, a modest decline in revenue or cash flow can disproportionately impair equity value and limit the company's ability to finance its growth ambitions.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio falls below 4.0 within 12 months as operating cash generation reduces outstanding obligations.
CounterStrong revenue growth and 31% operating margins suggest the company is generating significant cash to service its debt; if growth continues, de-leveraging may occur organically faster than the current balance sheet implies, reducing this risk materially.
The stock is pulling back while the 200-day moving average is still rising at roughly 6.4% per month and on-balance volume continues to accumulate, suggesting the current weakness is a pause within a broader uptrend rather than confirmed trend deterioration.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price returns above the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters and momentum score rises above 7.0.
CounterA gap up of roughly 8% followed by a retreat below the 200-day moving average increases the probability of continued near-term weakness, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.58 signals that options participants are hedging for additional downside before any recovery; the gap may need to fully fill before buyers regain control.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 64% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 138% YoY
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 72%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $714,637 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 1.4 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Dividend: 26.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.30
Upside
+49.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.30 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.3, and Quality at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 1.6, Peer rank at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue grew 138% year-over-year, making this the growth leader within its industry peer group; even at a fraction of that rate, the current valuation provides meaningful room for upside as the market prices in a higher earnings trajectory.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.02 indicate the market is pricing in minimal optimism, while the analyst consensus implies roughly 46% upside from current levels — a spread that suggests significant undervaluation if the earnings trajectory is maintained.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $18.66 (current price level), eliminating implied upside.
- P3Operating margins of 31%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and strong return metrics across the asset base indicate a business generating real profitability on its revenue, lending credibility to the high growth figure and supporting the quality of reported earnings.
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4A debt-to-equity ratio of 7.4 is the primary structural risk in this setup; at that leverage level, a modest decline in revenue or cash flow can disproportionately impair equity value and limit the company's ability to finance its growth ambitions.
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 4.0 for 2 consecutive reporting periods, confirming de-leveraging is underway.
- P5The stock is pulling back while the 200-day moving average is still rising at roughly 6.4% per month and on-balance volume continues to accumulate, suggesting the current weakness is a pause within a broader uptrend rather than confirmed trend deterioration.
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks while the 200-day MA slope turns negative.