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CCAPCrescent Capital BDC, Inc.Sell5.7·$11.06-3.32%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Crescent Capital BDC screens cheap with notable insider buying support, but declining revenue, downward-trending estimates, and a confirmed technical downtrend argue for a cautious, reduced position despite the early signs of recovery.

Thesis pillars

  • Cheap Valuation Low PegImproving
  • Notable Insider Buying ConvictionStable
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Crescent Capital BDC, Inc. (CCAP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. At $11.06, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Crescent Capital BDC, Inc. is a business development company that originates first-lien, unitranche, second-lien, and unsecured debt investments in U.S. middle-market companies with $10 million to $250 million of EBITDA. The company is externally managed by Crescent Cap... Read more

$11.06+6.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#96 of 235 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.80%
IncomeYield13.69%(5y avg 9.95%)Payout420.00%at-risk
Stop $10.44Target $11.81(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$13.57+22.7%7 analysts
$11.81our TP
$11.06price
$13.57mean
$16

Sell if holding. At $11.06, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 11, 202691d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.6%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.3
P/E (Fwd)7.5
Mkt Cap$422M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn9.3%
ROE2.2%
Rev Growth-10.0%
Beta0.58
Dividend13.69%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.08bullish
IV111%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
1.8
Value Rank
4.9
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.64Resistance $11.96

Price Targets

$10
$12
A.Upside+6.6%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-11 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CCAP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $11.06, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Prior stop was $10.44. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CCAP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.81 (+6.6% upside). Prior stop was $10.44. Stop-loss: $10.44.

What are the risks of investing in CCAP?

Thin upside margin: 6.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is CCAP overvalued or undervalued?

Crescent Capital BDC, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.3 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CCAP?

14 analysts cover CCAP with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Crescent Capital BDC, Inc. do?Crescent Capital BDC, Inc. is a business development company that originates first-lien, unitranche, second-lien, and...

Crescent Capital BDC, Inc. is a business development company that originates first-lien, unitranche, second-lien, and unsecured debt investments in U.S. middle-market companies with $10 million to $250 million of EBITDA. The company is externally managed by Crescent Cap Advisors, an affiliate of Crescent, a roughly $50 billion credit investment manager, and earns interest income, dividend income, and capital gains from its portfolio while paying the Adviser a 1.25% base management fee plus incentive fees.

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