Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.42
CAE · Why this verdict
Why CAE (CAE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A confirmed long-term downtrend and three failed entry gates — including momentum, asymmetry, and a death cross — keep the setup firmly in caution territory; strong free cash flow conversion and approximately 29% analyst-implied upside are genuine merits that argue for monitoring rather than acting until the primary trend reverses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The 200-day moving average has been declining at 1.3% per month with falling on-balance volume, forming a confirmed downtrend — three separate momentum and trend-related conditions failed simultaneously, blocking a constructive entry. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns positive and the share price holds above that average for 2 consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterShort-term indicators have been improving — MACD is positive and RSI stands at 65 — suggesting near-term buying momentum is building even against the declining long-term average, which could signal the downtrend is closer to exhaustion than continuation. | ||
Free cash flow is converting at 124% of reported net income, meaning cash generation materially exceeds reported earnings and the balance sheet is backed by real cash rather than accounting accruals. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for at least 2 consecutive reporting periods over the next year. | →Stable |
| CounterCash flow converting above net income at this magnitude can reflect specific working capital timing or non-cash charges that are temporary; if those factors reverse or capital expenditure requirements increase, conversion could fall back toward net income, narrowing the apparent cash quality advantage. | ||
Despite confirmed trend weakness, analysts see approximately 29% upside to their consensus price target, and the calculated reward-to-risk ratio sits just above the minimum threshold — offering a meaningful potential payoff for those willing to accept the current technical overhang. Sentiment breakdown | The share price closes within 10% of the $27.67 analyst consensus target within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets on stocks in confirmed downtrends carry higher-than-average revision risk; if operating momentum continues to disappoint and estimates are revised lower, the 29% upside could compress quickly, leaving the favorable ratio as an artifact of pre-revision consensus. | ||
The most recent quarterly result came in line with estimates at a near-zero surprise, following two prior quarters of meaningful beats of approximately 15% and 12%, suggesting analyst models may have caught up to the company's actual delivery pace. Earnings | EPS surprise returns to positive (above 3%) in the next reporting period, confirming the in-line result was a single-quarter normalizing event rather than a shift lower. | →Stable |
| CounterA single in-line quarter after two sizeable beats is well within normal guidance variability; with two prior beats providing a positive trend and the oldest period also in line at roughly neutral, the overall earnings history points to steady rather than deteriorating delivery. | ||
The 200-day moving average has been declining at 1.3% per month with falling on-balance volume, forming a confirmed downtrend — three separate momentum and trend-related conditions failed simultaneously, blocking a constructive entry.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns positive and the share price holds above that average for 2 consecutive months.
CounterShort-term indicators have been improving — MACD is positive and RSI stands at 65 — suggesting near-term buying momentum is building even against the declining long-term average, which could signal the downtrend is closer to exhaustion than continuation.
Free cash flow is converting at 124% of reported net income, meaning cash generation materially exceeds reported earnings and the balance sheet is backed by real cash rather than accounting accruals.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for at least 2 consecutive reporting periods over the next year.
CounterCash flow converting above net income at this magnitude can reflect specific working capital timing or non-cash charges that are temporary; if those factors reverse or capital expenditure requirements increase, conversion could fall back toward net income, narrowing the apparent cash quality advantage.
Despite confirmed trend weakness, analysts see approximately 29% upside to their consensus price target, and the calculated reward-to-risk ratio sits just above the minimum threshold — offering a meaningful potential payoff for those willing to accept the current technical overhang.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The share price closes within 10% of the $27.67 analyst consensus target within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst price targets on stocks in confirmed downtrends carry higher-than-average revision risk; if operating momentum continues to disappoint and estimates are revised lower, the 29% upside could compress quickly, leaving the favorable ratio as an artifact of pre-revision consensus.
The most recent quarterly result came in line with estimates at a near-zero surprise, following two prior quarters of meaningful beats of approximately 15% and 12%, suggesting analyst models may have caught up to the company's actual delivery pace.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise returns to positive (above 3%) in the next reporting period, confirming the in-line result was a single-quarter normalizing event rather than a shift lower.
CounterA single in-line quarter after two sizeable beats is well within normal guidance variability; with two prior beats providing a positive trend and the oldest period also in line at roughly neutral, the overall earnings history points to steady rather than deteriorating delivery.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 5.5 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 3.8 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 0.4 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.62
Upside
+8.4%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.62 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, Value at 7.0, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Peer rank at 3.0, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.62 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The 200-day moving average has been declining at 1.3% per month with falling on-balance volume, forming a confirmed downtrend — three separate momentum and trend-related conditions failed simultaneously, blocking a constructive entry.
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns positive and the share price holds above that average for 2 consecutive months.
- P2Free cash flow is converting at 124% of reported net income, meaning cash generation materially exceeds reported earnings and the balance sheet is backed by real cash rather than accounting accruals.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3Despite confirmed trend weakness, analysts see approximately 29% upside to their consensus price target, and the calculated reward-to-risk ratio sits just above the minimum threshold — offering a meaningful potential payoff for those willing to accept the current technical overhang.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls to or below $25.25 (current price), eliminating all analyst-derived upside.
- P4The most recent quarterly result came in line with estimates at a near-zero surprise, following two prior quarters of meaningful beats of approximately 15% and 12%, suggesting analyst models may have caught up to the company's actual delivery pace.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.