Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.6 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 31.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
BTSG · Why this verdict
Why BrightSpring Health Services, I (BTSG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 1.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 327% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.7 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.30 (n=7)
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $1,734,371,749 (13.151% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 5.8 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 3.8 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.1 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(7)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:37d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.85
Upside
-12.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.87>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.85 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Momentum at 6.9, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Insider at 3.0, Quality at 4.1, and Technical at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.