Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.54
- ▸Attractively valued
BSX · Why this verdict
Why Boston Scientific (BSX) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A high-quality medical device franchise with a wide economic moat, four consecutive quarterly beats, and 51.7% headroom to the analyst-based target is currently in a confirmed technical downtrend following a death cross — the quality and fundamental case is intact but entry requires patience until momentum conditions stabilize. The risk/reward of 8.31-to-1 is asymmetrically favorable for holders willing to absorb near-term technical pressure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Strong margins of 17%, a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and an identified wide economic moat underpin a high-quality franchise that has compounded returns through multiple cycles, placing it among the best-in-class on margins relative to peers. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 8 for 4 consecutive quarters within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow converts at 79% of net income — below full parity — indicating a gap between reported earnings and cash generation that warrants monitoring, and single-source supplier concentration introduces supply-chain fragility that could disrupt the margin profile. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters — most recently by 1.6%, then 2.4%, 5.1%, and 3.4% in the three preceding quarters — demonstrating a consistent pattern of delivering at or above expectations across multiple reporting periods. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters, with each EPS surprise staying above 0% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates are noted as trending downward, meaning the continued beats may partly reflect the bar being reset lower rather than genuine acceleration in the underlying business; a declining estimate trend can erode the quality of the beat streak over time. | ||
Price momentum has deteriorated sharply — the RSI has reached capitulation levels below the 200-day moving average, the slope of that average has declined steeply, volume distribution is falling, and a death cross pattern has triggered a hard block — creating a near-term technical headwind that makes the current entry premature. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above the 4.5 threshold, the death cross resolves, and RSI climbs above 40 while OBV returns to accumulation within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA deeply oversold RSI reading in a high-quality business with a perfect beat streak and 51.7% analyst-based upside can mark a durable capitulation low rather than the onset of sustained structural selling. | ||
With 51.7% headroom to the analyst-based target and a risk/reward ratio of 8.31-to-1 in your favor, the potential reward is substantial relative to the assessed downside — an asymmetrically favorable setup even accounting for the confirmed near-term momentum headwind. Price targets | Price closes at least half of the gap to the analyst target within 18 months as momentum stabilizes and the quality franchise re-rates toward consensus. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst estimates are trending lower, meaning the target could compress before the price closes the gap — a stock in confirmed downtrend can remain under pressure longer than a wide upside-to-target figure implies, and downward revisions could materially reduce the apparent 51.7% reward. | ||
Strong margins of 17%, a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and an identified wide economic moat underpin a high-quality franchise that has compounded returns through multiple cycles, placing it among the best-in-class on margins relative to peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 8 for 4 consecutive quarters within 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow converts at 79% of net income — below full parity — indicating a gap between reported earnings and cash generation that warrants monitoring, and single-source supplier concentration introduces supply-chain fragility that could disrupt the margin profile.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters — most recently by 1.6%, then 2.4%, 5.1%, and 3.4% in the three preceding quarters — demonstrating a consistent pattern of delivering at or above expectations across multiple reporting periods.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters, with each EPS surprise staying above 0% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings estimates are noted as trending downward, meaning the continued beats may partly reflect the bar being reset lower rather than genuine acceleration in the underlying business; a declining estimate trend can erode the quality of the beat streak over time.
Price momentum has deteriorated sharply — the RSI has reached capitulation levels below the 200-day moving average, the slope of that average has declined steeply, volume distribution is falling, and a death cross pattern has triggered a hard block — creating a near-term technical headwind that makes the current entry premature.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above the 4.5 threshold, the death cross resolves, and RSI climbs above 40 while OBV returns to accumulation within 6 months.
CounterA deeply oversold RSI reading in a high-quality business with a perfect beat streak and 51.7% analyst-based upside can mark a durable capitulation low rather than the onset of sustained structural selling.
With 51.7% headroom to the analyst-based target and a risk/reward ratio of 8.31-to-1 in your favor, the potential reward is substantial relative to the assessed downside — an asymmetrically favorable setup even accounting for the confirmed near-term momentum headwind.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price closes at least half of the gap to the analyst target within 18 months as momentum stabilizes and the quality franchise re-rates toward consensus.
CounterAnalyst estimates are trending lower, meaning the target could compress before the price closes the gap — a stock in confirmed downtrend can remain under pressure longer than a wide upside-to-target figure implies, and downward revisions could materially reduce the apparent 51.7% reward.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.8 |
| Op margin | 8.2 |
| Net margin | 8.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 79% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 72%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $554,000 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 8.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
- ▸Above max pain $30
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:8.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
8.47
Upside
+55.2%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:8.5>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Growth at 7.7, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Peer rank at 5.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.47 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong margins of 17%, a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and an identified wide economic moat underpin a high-quality franchise that has compounded returns through multiple cycles, placing it among the best-in-class on margins relative to peers.
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 13% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters — most recently by 1.6%, then 2.4%, 5.1%, and 3.4% in the three preceding quarters — demonstrating a consistent pattern of delivering at or above expectations across multiple reporting periods.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price momentum has deteriorated sharply — the RSI has reached capitulation levels below the 200-day moving average, the slope of that average has declined steeply, volume distribution is falling, and a death cross pattern has triggered a hard block — creating a near-term technical headwind that makes the current entry premature.
Trip ifPrice remains more than 15% below the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive months without any upward recovery.
- P4With 51.7% headroom to the analyst-based target and a risk/reward ratio of 8.31-to-1 in your favor, the potential reward is substantial relative to the assessed downside — an asymmetrically favorable setup even accounting for the confirmed near-term momentum headwind.
Trip ifAnalyst price target compresses below $55, representing a reduction of more than 20% from the current $70.93 target.