Value
2.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 97.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.08
- ▸Expensive valuation
BLLN · Why this verdict
Why BillionToOne (BLLN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.9 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.6 |
| Net margin | 3.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 67% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 89 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 84% YoY
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 4.4 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,979,785 (0.129% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.5 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.93
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:43d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.12
Upside
-1.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.12 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 6.3, and Catalyst at 5.8; the weakest are Value at 2.6, Insider at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.