Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.72
BKU · Why this verdict
Why BankUnited (BKU) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Technical momentum is strong with a golden cross and rising on-balance volume, but the most recent quarter missed estimates by nearly 13% after three straight prior beats, upside to the near-term target is roughly 1%, a high-severity regulatory concentration is on file, and the risk/reward at current levels does not support a compelling entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The 10-K discloses one high-severity and two medium-severity concentration risks, including regulatory concentration with the OCC, creating a tail-risk scenario where a single adverse regulatory development could produce an outsized negative impact on the business. Risk | If the thesis holds, the number of high-severity concentration items remains at 1 or above in successive 10-K filings, confirming the risk has not been mitigated. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock's strong technical momentum and constructive analyst sentiment suggest the market is not currently pricing in a near-term regulatory event, implying participants view the concentration as manageable within normal operating parameters. | ||
The stock has established a golden cross, trades above all moving averages, and exhibits rising on-balance volume accumulation, placing technical momentum among the strongest in the peer group and suggesting broad buying interest. Momentum | The stock remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise for the next 3 months, confirming the technical structure is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical strength has not been confirmed by earnings — the most recent quarter came in roughly 13% below consensus — suggesting the price action may be running ahead of underlying business fundamentals. | ||
After three consecutive quarters of beating consensus — by 17.2%, 7.7%, and 5.5% in the three prior periods reading from oldest to most recent — the latest quarter missed estimates by approximately 13%, a significant reversal that raises questions about near-term earnings visibility. Earnings | EPS surprise returns to positive territory above 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the miss was isolated rather than the beginning of a deterioration trend. | →Stable |
| CounterThe prior three beats averaged a positive surprise above 10%, indicating the business has genuine earnings power; one significant miss after a run of beats may reflect a difficult individual quarter rather than a structural shift. | ||
With only approximately 1.3% of headroom to the near-term price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.3 — far below any reasonable minimum — the current price offers no meaningful compensation for the downside risks, regardless of the constructive technical backdrop. Price targets | If the thesis holds, the stock remains within 3% of the current target level for the next 2 months without opening a more attractive entry opportunity. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the most recent earnings miss proves isolated and the analyst community revises targets meaningfully higher following the next quarterly report, the upside gap could widen and shift the risk/reward to a more favorable reading. | ||
The 10-K discloses one high-severity and two medium-severity concentration risks, including regulatory concentration with the OCC, creating a tail-risk scenario where a single adverse regulatory development could produce an outsized negative impact on the business.
→StableRisk
- Expectation
- If the thesis holds, the number of high-severity concentration items remains at 1 or above in successive 10-K filings, confirming the risk has not been mitigated.
CounterThe stock's strong technical momentum and constructive analyst sentiment suggest the market is not currently pricing in a near-term regulatory event, implying participants view the concentration as manageable within normal operating parameters.
The stock has established a golden cross, trades above all moving averages, and exhibits rising on-balance volume accumulation, placing technical momentum among the strongest in the peer group and suggesting broad buying interest.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- The stock remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to rise for the next 3 months, confirming the technical structure is intact.
CounterTechnical strength has not been confirmed by earnings — the most recent quarter came in roughly 13% below consensus — suggesting the price action may be running ahead of underlying business fundamentals.
After three consecutive quarters of beating consensus — by 17.2%, 7.7%, and 5.5% in the three prior periods reading from oldest to most recent — the latest quarter missed estimates by approximately 13%, a significant reversal that raises questions about near-term earnings visibility.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise returns to positive territory above 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the miss was isolated rather than the beginning of a deterioration trend.
CounterThe prior three beats averaged a positive surprise above 10%, indicating the business has genuine earnings power; one significant miss after a run of beats may reflect a difficult individual quarter rather than a structural shift.
With only approximately 1.3% of headroom to the near-term price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.3 — far below any reasonable minimum — the current price offers no meaningful compensation for the downside risks, regardless of the constructive technical backdrop.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- If the thesis holds, the stock remains within 3% of the current target level for the next 2 months without opening a more attractive entry opportunity.
CounterIf the most recent earnings miss proves isolated and the analyst community revises targets meaningfully higher following the next quarterly report, the upside gap could widen and shift the risk/reward to a more favorable reading.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $240,650 (0.007% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
- ▸Above max pain $25
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 262.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.92
Upside
-9.4%
Downside
10.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 26d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.8, Momentum at 6.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Growth at 3.3, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The stock has established a golden cross, trades above all moving averages, and exhibits rising on-balance volume accumulation, placing technical momentum among the strongest in the peer group and suggesting broad buying interest.
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns negative for more than 20 consecutive trading days, confirming the technical structure has broken down.
- P2After three consecutive quarters of beating consensus — by 17.2%, 7.7%, and 5.5% in the three prior periods reading from oldest to most recent — the latest quarter missed estimates by approximately 13%, a significant reversal that raises questions about near-term earnings visibility.
Trip ifEPS surprise returns above 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the recent miss was an isolated event.
- P3The 10-K discloses one high-severity and two medium-severity concentration risks, including regulatory concentration with the OCC, creating a tail-risk scenario where a single adverse regulatory development could produce an outsized negative impact on the business.
Trip ifNumber of HIGH-severity concentration risks disclosed in 10-K Item 1A drops below 1 for 2 or more consecutive annual filings.
- P4With only approximately 1.3% of headroom to the near-term price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.3 — far below any reasonable minimum — the current price offers no meaningful compensation for the downside risks, regardless of the constructive technical backdrop.
Trip ifUpside to the analyst price target expands beyond 10% from the current price, with reward-to-risk improving above 1.5x.