Value
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.4 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.26
BKR · Why this verdict
Why Baker Hughes (BKR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 14% above consensus confirm strong operational execution, but with the stock trading just 2.6% below the analyst target and momentum well below the minimum threshold — with on-balance volume distributing — the near-term setup does not justify adding to an existing position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters by an average of roughly 14.4%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of exceeding street expectations and delivering above guidance on operational results. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six or more consecutive quarters, with the average positive surprise remaining above 10% over the next four reported periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise of 14.4% sets a high bar for future quarters; if management tightens guidance or consensus revisions narrow the gap, maintaining double-digit positive surprises becomes progressively more difficult. | ||
Earnings growth scores at the top of the range, reflecting expanding per-share earnings over recent periods that places the company among the stronger growth profiles within its peer group on this dimension. Growth | Reported EPS remains above $0.60 per quarter for the next four periods, confirming the earnings trajectory is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterNo identifiable competitive moat is noted in the quality assessment, which leaves earnings growth more dependent on market conditions rather than structural pricing advantages. | ||
With only 2.6% of headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.57 — well below any reasonable minimum — the current price does not offer sufficient compensation for the near-term downside risk, making this a hold rather than a buy signal. Price targets | If the thesis holds, the stock remains range-bound within 5% of the current analyst target for the next 2 quarters, never opening a more attractive entry window. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the analyst community revises targets higher following another strong quarterly beat — which the four-quarter beat streak makes plausible — the upside gap could widen and shift the risk/reward to favorable. | ||
Despite holding above the 200-day moving average, on-balance volume is falling — indicating distribution pressure — and the momentum gate sits well below the minimum threshold, signaling that selling pressure is outweighing buying interest beneath the surface. Momentum | If the thesis holds, on-balance volume continues to decline and the stock remains range-bound near current levels without breaking above the analyst target for at least 2 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe RSI reading has been characterized as an uptrend pullback rather than a structural reversal; if sector conditions stabilize, the stock's support above the 200-day moving average and strong technical score could attract buyers and reverse the OBV trend. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters by an average of roughly 14.4%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of exceeding street expectations and delivering above guidance on operational results.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six or more consecutive quarters, with the average positive surprise remaining above 10% over the next four reported periods.
CounterThe average surprise of 14.4% sets a high bar for future quarters; if management tightens guidance or consensus revisions narrow the gap, maintaining double-digit positive surprises becomes progressively more difficult.
Earnings growth scores at the top of the range, reflecting expanding per-share earnings over recent periods that places the company among the stronger growth profiles within its peer group on this dimension.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Reported EPS remains above $0.60 per quarter for the next four periods, confirming the earnings trajectory is intact.
CounterNo identifiable competitive moat is noted in the quality assessment, which leaves earnings growth more dependent on market conditions rather than structural pricing advantages.
With only 2.6% of headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.57 — well below any reasonable minimum — the current price does not offer sufficient compensation for the near-term downside risk, making this a hold rather than a buy signal.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- If the thesis holds, the stock remains range-bound within 5% of the current analyst target for the next 2 quarters, never opening a more attractive entry window.
CounterIf the analyst community revises targets higher following another strong quarterly beat — which the four-quarter beat streak makes plausible — the upside gap could widen and shift the risk/reward to favorable.
Despite holding above the 200-day moving average, on-balance volume is falling — indicating distribution pressure — and the momentum gate sits well below the minimum threshold, signaling that selling pressure is outweighing buying interest beneath the surface.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- If the thesis holds, on-balance volume continues to decline and the stock remains range-bound near current levels without breaking above the analyst target for at least 2 months.
CounterThe RSI reading has been characterized as an uptrend pullback rather than a structural reversal; if sector conditions stabilize, the stock's support above the 200-day moving average and strong technical score could attract buyers and reverse the OBV trend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.7 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 5.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 26)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $14,094,521 (0.025% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 3.4 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.0 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 4.3 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 6.0 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 163.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.59
Upside
+11.2%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 26d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5. Top dim: Technical at 7.8; weakest: Momentum at 2.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Sentiment at 7.1, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Insider at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.59 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters by an average of roughly 14.4%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of exceeding street expectations and delivering above guidance on operational results.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the four-quarter beat streak.
- P2Earnings growth scores at the top of the range, reflecting expanding per-share earnings over recent periods that places the company among the stronger growth profiles within its peer group on this dimension.
Trip ifReported EPS falls below $0.50 for 2 consecutive quarters, from the recent range of $0.58 to $0.78.
- P3With only 2.6% of headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.57 — well below any reasonable minimum — the current price does not offer sufficient compensation for the near-term downside risk, making this a hold rather than a buy signal.
Trip ifPrice falls below $57 while the analyst target remains at or above $64, creating upside greater than 12% and improving the risk/reward above 1.5x.
- P4Despite holding above the 200-day moving average, on-balance volume is falling — indicating distribution pressure — and the momentum gate sits well below the minimum threshold, signaling that selling pressure is outweighing buying interest beneath the surface.
Trip ifPrice closes above the analyst target of $64.11 for 5 or more consecutive trading days, confirming momentum has reversed.