Value
6.9/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
- ▸PEG: 1.57
BBDO · Why this verdict
Why Banco Bradesco (BBDO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock offers a 51% margin of safety and strong margins of 25%, but momentum has failed its minimum threshold, the near-term risk/reward is unfavorable at 1.24-to-1, and a dividend yield of 664% raises questions about payout sustainability; patience before adding is warranted until momentum recovers and the entry geometry improves.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum has failed the minimum threshold required for entry, with the stock trading below its 200-day moving average and RSI sitting at 43; the moving average itself continues rising at +3.5% per month, suggesting this is a technical pullback rather than a fully broken trend, but the weakness prevents a new position. Warnings | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and RSI rises above 55 for more than 30 consecutive days, restoring the momentum needed for entry. | →Stable |
| CounterA rising 200-day moving average with RSI at 43 can resolve quickly if a positive catalyst appears; the stock has not entered oversold territory and the structural trend remains intact. | ||
At current prices the stock offers 8.7% upside to its near-term price target with a risk/reward ratio of 1.24-to-1, below the minimum 1.5-to-1 bar, making a new entry unattractive without a pullback that restores more favorable geometry. Price targets | Upside to price target rises above 15% from the current 8.7% as price pulls back toward a more attractive entry level. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 51% margin of safety to intrinsic value implies material long-term upside even with modest near-term headroom; investors with a multi-year horizon may find the current entry level adequate. | ||
The stock trades at a 51% discount to estimated intrinsic value, offering a meaningful cushion against further deterioration while the business works through its near-term growth and momentum challenges. Bull case | Stock price advances more than 20% from the current $3.00, closing a material portion of the gap to intrinsic value over the next 12 months as the market re-rates the franchise. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep value discounts can persist for extended periods when growth is weak and momentum is negative; the combination of soft earnings growth and failing momentum criteria creates the conditions for a value trap. | ||
The dividend yield is recorded at 664%, a level so far beyond any sustainable long-term payout ratio that it likely reflects a special one-time distribution or a data anomaly; investors relying on income must verify whether future payments can be sustained before incorporating this yield into their return assumptions. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend yield normalizes below 20% from the current 664% as the payout structure clarifies over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the company maintains full dividend payments for 4 or more consecutive quarters without reduction, the yield would prove real and recurring, making the elevated payout a feature rather than a risk for income-focused holders. | ||
Momentum has failed the minimum threshold required for entry, with the stock trading below its 200-day moving average and RSI sitting at 43; the moving average itself continues rising at +3.5% per month, suggesting this is a technical pullback rather than a fully broken trend, but the weakness prevents a new position.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and RSI rises above 55 for more than 30 consecutive days, restoring the momentum needed for entry.
CounterA rising 200-day moving average with RSI at 43 can resolve quickly if a positive catalyst appears; the stock has not entered oversold territory and the structural trend remains intact.
At current prices the stock offers 8.7% upside to its near-term price target with a risk/reward ratio of 1.24-to-1, below the minimum 1.5-to-1 bar, making a new entry unattractive without a pullback that restores more favorable geometry.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Upside to price target rises above 15% from the current 8.7% as price pulls back toward a more attractive entry level.
CounterThe 51% margin of safety to intrinsic value implies material long-term upside even with modest near-term headroom; investors with a multi-year horizon may find the current entry level adequate.
The stock trades at a 51% discount to estimated intrinsic value, offering a meaningful cushion against further deterioration while the business works through its near-term growth and momentum challenges.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Stock price advances more than 20% from the current $3.00, closing a material portion of the gap to intrinsic value over the next 12 months as the market re-rates the franchise.
CounterDeep value discounts can persist for extended periods when growth is weak and momentum is negative; the combination of soft earnings growth and failing momentum criteria creates the conditions for a value trap.
The dividend yield is recorded at 664%, a level so far beyond any sustainable long-term payout ratio that it likely reflects a special one-time distribution or a data anomaly; investors relying on income must verify whether future payments can be sustained before incorporating this yield into their return assumptions.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend yield normalizes below 20% from the current 664% as the payout structure clarifies over the next 12 months.
CounterIf the company maintains full dividend payments for 4 or more consecutive quarters without reduction, the yield would prove real and recurring, making the elevated payout a feature rather than a risk for income-focused holders.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.5 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 6.7 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.5 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1, Value at 6.9, and Peer rank at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Momentum at 3.9, and Catalyst at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Momentum has failed the minimum threshold required for entry, with the stock trading below its 200-day moving average and RSI sitting at 43; the moving average itself continues rising at +3.5% per month, suggesting this is a technical pullback rather than a fully broken trend, but the weakness prevents a new position.
Trip ifPrice breaks above the 200-day moving average and RSI rises above 55 from the current 43 for more than 30 consecutive days.
- P2At current prices the stock offers 8.7% upside to its near-term price target with a risk/reward ratio of 1.24-to-1, below the minimum 1.5-to-1 bar, making a new entry unattractive without a pullback that restores more favorable geometry.
Trip ifUpside to price target rises above 15% from the current 8.7%, indicating a more compelling entry setup has developed.
- P3The stock trades at a 51% discount to estimated intrinsic value, offering a meaningful cushion against further deterioration while the business works through its near-term growth and momentum challenges.
Trip ifPrice declines more than 20% below the current $3.00 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the stated margin of safety was insufficient to cushion further deterioration.
- P4The dividend yield is recorded at 664%, a level so far beyond any sustainable long-term payout ratio that it likely reflects a special one-time distribution or a data anomaly; investors relying on income must verify whether future payments can be sustained before incorporating this yield into their return assumptions.
Trip ifCompany maintains full dividend payments for 4 consecutive quarters without reduction, sustaining yield above 100% and demonstrating the payout is recurring.