Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.91
- ▸Attractively valued
BAC · Why this verdict
Why Bank of America (BAC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BAC at $52.20 passes all V9 gates with momentum 6.7>=5.5, asymmetry 1.6, a perfect 4/4 beat streak, attractive value (Forward P/E 10.3x), and NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST gate — but thin 8.9% upside and edge_type NO_EDGE produce AVOID, so the engine signals 'Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.'
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' and avg_surprise_pct 6.7% — the Q1 2026 beat of 8.78% is the largest of the four, showing momentum is improving, not fading. Bull case (item 1) | Beat count holds at 4/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 5% through the 2026-07-14 print. | →stable |
| CounterBank earnings beats during a rising-rate cycle are driven by NII expansion, not idiosyncratic execution; if Fed cuts begin, beats compress fast. | ||
Bull_case 'Attractive valuation' corroborated by value 7.8 (Forward P/E 10.3x, PEG 0.93) and net_margin component 10.0/10 with note 'Strong margins: 29%' — money-center bank trading at sub-market multiple. Bull case (item 2) | Value subscore stays above 7.0 with Forward P/E below 11x over the next 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterBanks always trade at a discount because they're capital-constrained and cyclical; 'attractive' on absolute multiple may be fair on regulated-ROE multiple. | ||
V9 NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50 gate passed and setup_type RECOVERY (death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44) with bull_case 'Recent Analyst detected in news' show fresh sell-side activity at a technical inflection. Bull case (item 3) | Sentiment subscore stays above 7.5 with new analyst news event in the next 30 days. | →stable |
| CounterSingle analyst note rarely creates persistent flows; RECOVERY setup with MACD improving is fragile and can fail back into the death cross if 200-day MA isn't reclaimed. | ||
Bear_case 'Thin upside margin: 8.9%' with V9 edge_type NO_EDGE and asymmetry_ratio 1.6 barely clearing the 1.5 floor — TP $56.84 leaves limited room before analyst re-rating is required. Bear case (item 1) | Analyst take_profit advances above $60 (15%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 2.5. | →stable |
| CounterMoney-center bank TP advances usually require macro catalysts (rate cycle, capital return); waiting for the catalyst is consistent with 'maintain position'. | ||
Insider signal BEARISH with 7 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -619,146 shares — material share-count outflow at a price near 52w highs (52w_position 8.2/10) is consistent with profit-taking. Insider transaction read | Sell_count drops below 3 and net_shares_90d turns positive on the next refresh. | →stable |
| CounterMoney-center bank insider sales are dominated by 10b5-1 plans and option exercises with no discretionary signal; absence of dollar value (net_value_90d null) means materiality is unscored. | ||
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' and avg_surprise_pct 6.7% — the Q1 2026 beat of 8.78% is the largest of the four, showing momentum is improving, not fading.
→stableBull case (item 1)
- Expectation
- Beat count holds at 4/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 5% through the 2026-07-14 print.
CounterBank earnings beats during a rising-rate cycle are driven by NII expansion, not idiosyncratic execution; if Fed cuts begin, beats compress fast.
Bull_case 'Attractive valuation' corroborated by value 7.8 (Forward P/E 10.3x, PEG 0.93) and net_margin component 10.0/10 with note 'Strong margins: 29%' — money-center bank trading at sub-market multiple.
→stableBull case (item 2)
- Expectation
- Value subscore stays above 7.0 with Forward P/E below 11x over the next 2 refreshes.
CounterBanks always trade at a discount because they're capital-constrained and cyclical; 'attractive' on absolute multiple may be fair on regulated-ROE multiple.
V9 NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50 gate passed and setup_type RECOVERY (death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44) with bull_case 'Recent Analyst detected in news' show fresh sell-side activity at a technical inflection.
→stableBull case (item 3)
- Expectation
- Sentiment subscore stays above 7.5 with new analyst news event in the next 30 days.
CounterSingle analyst note rarely creates persistent flows; RECOVERY setup with MACD improving is fragile and can fail back into the death cross if 200-day MA isn't reclaimed.
Bear_case 'Thin upside margin: 8.9%' with V9 edge_type NO_EDGE and asymmetry_ratio 1.6 barely clearing the 1.5 floor — TP $56.84 leaves limited room before analyst re-rating is required.
→stableBear case (item 1)
- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit advances above $60 (15%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 2.5.
CounterMoney-center bank TP advances usually require macro catalysts (rate cycle, capital return); waiting for the catalyst is consistent with 'maintain position'.
Insider signal BEARISH with 7 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -619,146 shares — material share-count outflow at a price near 52w highs (52w_position 8.2/10) is consistent with profit-taking.
→stableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Sell_count drops below 3 and net_shares_90d turns positive on the next refresh.
CounterMoney-center bank insider sales are dominated by 10b5-1 plans and option exercises with no discretionary signal; absence of dollar value (net_value_90d null) means materiality is unscored.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 6.9 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.7 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $27,664,711 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.6 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 7.3 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 221.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:45d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.03
Upside
+10.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMOMENTUM_CONT — Trend continuation, RSI 52, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Peer rank at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.6, Insider at 5.0, and Quality at 5.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)' with catalyst notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' and avg_surprise_pct 6.7% — the Q1 2026 beat of 8.78% is the largest of the four, showing momentum is improving, not fading.
Trip ifBeat count drops to 2/4 with avg_surprise_pct below 3%.
- P2Bull_case 'Attractive valuation' corroborated by value 7.8 (Forward P/E 10.3x, PEG 0.93) and net_margin component 10.0/10 with note 'Strong margins: 29%' — money-center bank trading at sub-market multiple.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x with value subscore falling below 6.0.
- P3V9 NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50 gate passed and setup_type RECOVERY (death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44) with bull_case 'Recent Analyst detected in news' show fresh sell-side activity at a technical inflection.
Trip ifSetup_type degrades to DOWNTREND or sentiment subscore falls below 6.0.
- P4Bear_case 'Thin upside margin: 8.9%' with V9 edge_type NO_EDGE and asymmetry_ratio 1.6 barely clearing the 1.5 floor — TP $56.84 leaves limited room before analyst re-rating is required.
Trip ifAsymmetry_ratio falls below 1.0 with analyst TP below $55.
- P5Insider signal BEARISH with 7 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -619,146 shares — material share-count outflow at a price near 52w highs (52w_position 8.2/10) is consistent with profit-taking.
Trip ifInsider sell_count rises above 15 with c_level_sells_90d >= 3.