Value
4.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 40.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.45
AXON · Why this verdict
Why Axon Enterprise (AXON) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.3 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 3.5 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 2.4 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 30% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 7.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $21,985,086 (0.064% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.1 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:43d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.98
Upside
+40.7%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.42>1.3
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Peer rank at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.4, Insider at 3.9, and Technical at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.