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ATNIATN International, Inc.Sell5.4·$28.62
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

ATN International screens with a wide margin of safety and substantial analyst-implied upside, but the same assessment flags a cyclical earnings trap: a low trailing multiple against a much richer forward multiple, an approximately 90% expected earnings decline, and three misses in the last four quarters. Insiders have also turned heavily net-sellers, even as underlying margins and the dividend track record remain strong.

Thesis pillars

  • Margin Of Safety Analyst Upside→Stable
  • Strong Margins Dividend Track Record→Stable
  • Cyclical Earnings Peak Trap↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

ATN International, Inc. (ATNI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: International Telecom segment (52.0%); Earnings expected to decline ~90% (cyclical peak).

ATN International provides digital infrastructure and communications services — fixed, mobile, carrier, and managed services — in rural and remote markets in the US (Alaska and the western US) and internationally in Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Guyana, and the US Virgin Islands.... Read more

$28.62+104.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#25 of 42 Telecom Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield27.37%
IncomeYield3.98%(5y avg 3.33%)Payout10.81%sustainable
Stop $27.38Target $58.65(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 16.0:1
Analyst target$69.00+141.1%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: International Telecom segment (52.0%); Earnings expected to decline ~90% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26

Recent Developments — ATN International, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-09-26T22:51:57Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Margin of safety: 82%
Analyst upside: 105%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: International Telecom segment (52.0%)
Earnings expected to decline ~90% (cyclical peak)
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)2.8
P/E (Fwd)26.5
Mkt Cap$441M
EV/EBITDA5.2
Profit Mgn22.5%
ROE24.6%
Rev Growth1.8%
Beta0.60
Dividend3.98%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV74%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicInternational Telecom segment52%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenues from our International Telecom segment were approximately 52% of our consolidated revenues for fiscal years 2025 and 2024.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-31Item 5.02MEDIUM
    SVP and General Counsel Mary Mabey agreed to step down effective October 31, 2026. The separation is not due to any disagreement with the company; she will continue serving through the separation date and receive severance benefits under a Transition Agreement, including a pro-rated 2026 annual bonus.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.9
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
8.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend aristocrat: 4.0% yield

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
4.1
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.0
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 30)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5INSIDER 0.52%=EXTREMEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 16.0 ≥ 1.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.23Resistance $31.31

Price Targets

$27
$59
A.Upside+104.9%
A.R:R16.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 26x vs trail 3x (9.5x)
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 0.52%=extreme

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATNI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $28.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: International Telecom segment (52.0%); Earnings expected to decline ~90% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $27.38. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ATNI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.65 (+104.9% upside). Prior stop was $27.38. Stop-loss: $27.38.

What are the risks of investing in ATNI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: International Telecom segment (52.0%); Earnings expected to decline ~90% (cyclical peak); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Is ATNI overvalued or undervalued?

ATN International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 2.8 (forward 26.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ATNI?

7 analysts cover ATNI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $69.

What does ATN International, Inc. do?ATN International provides digital infrastructure and communications services — fixed, mobile, carrier, and managed...

ATN International provides digital infrastructure and communications services — fixed, mobile, carrier, and managed services — in rural and remote markets in the US (Alaska and the western US) and internationally in Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Guyana, and the US Virgin Islands. The company operates through two segments, International Telecom (52% of fiscal 2025 consolidated revenue) and US Telecom (48%), and its network includes more than 12,200 fiber route miles passing approximately 523,500 homes with high-speed broadband as of December 31, 2025.

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Latest News

Benzinga18d ago