Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.53
- ▸Attractively valued
ADBE · Why this verdict
Why Adobe (ADBE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 63%
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 128% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 6, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.39 (n=8)
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $18,782,504 (0.024% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.55
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:80d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.98
Upside
+33.2%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 6, MACD bearish
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (8.8) with weak momentum (1.7)
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.40>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.9; weakest: Momentum at 1.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Quality at 8.8, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Insider at 3.9, and Growth at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.