Value
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.2 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.6 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 44.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.61
ACMR · Why this verdict
Why ACM Research (ACMR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ACM Research is a hypergrowth semiconductor equipment name with strong institutional accumulation, but the stock is priced at or beyond near-term resistance with unfavorable risk/reward geometry, persistent negative free cash flow, and concentrated exposure to mainland China that limits new position conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company posted revenue growth of 34% year-over-year, ranking it as an industry growth leader, which demonstrates strong demand for its wafer-cleaning equipment and positions it for continued market share capture in semiconductor front-end processing. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters, confirming that the 34% pace reflects durable demand rather than a one-period pull-forward. | →Stable |
| CounterThe high revenue growth rate was accompanied by two earnings misses in the last four quarters; rapid top-line expansion without consistent earnings delivery raises questions about operating leverage and cost discipline as the business scales. | ||
Revenue is heavily concentrated in mainland China as a geography, and single wafer cleaning equipment along with related products account for approximately 69.5% of total revenue, creating meaningful idiosyncratic risk if either the geographic channel or the core product line contracts. Bear case | Single wafer cleaning and related product revenue falls below 55% of total over 2 consecutive reporting periods, demonstrating that the company is successfully diversifying its revenue base beyond its current primary category. | →Stable |
| CounterLeading market share in a dominant and growing end-market can be a competitive advantage; a strong position in China's semiconductor equipment upgrade cycle may sustain elevated revenue concentration while still producing strong absolute growth. | ||
Free cash flow is negative — running at -157% relative to net income — meaning the business is consuming cash even as it reports positive earnings, which limits financial flexibility and raises questions about the sustainability of current growth spending. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow relative to net income rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the company has transitioned to genuine cash generation alongside its reported profitability. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative free cash flow in a high-growth equipment company often reflects necessary working capital investment and capacity build-out that supports future revenue; if growth converts efficiently into profitability, the cash deficit can narrow faster than the headline ratio suggests. | ||
With only approximately 2.4% upside remaining to the near-term resistance target of $97.46 and a risk/reward ratio of 0.34-to-1, the current entry geometry does not clear the minimum threshold required for a new position. Price targets | A pullback below $82 from the current $95.21 would restore more than 15% upside to the $97.46 target, improving the asymmetry sufficiently to reconsider a long entry. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong earnings catalyst or sector re-rating could push resistance higher and re-anchor targets above $97.46; investors who wait for the pullback may miss a rapid breakout if the next print is materially ahead of estimates. | ||
The company posted revenue growth of 34% year-over-year, ranking it as an industry growth leader, which demonstrates strong demand for its wafer-cleaning equipment and positions it for continued market share capture in semiconductor front-end processing.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters, confirming that the 34% pace reflects durable demand rather than a one-period pull-forward.
CounterThe high revenue growth rate was accompanied by two earnings misses in the last four quarters; rapid top-line expansion without consistent earnings delivery raises questions about operating leverage and cost discipline as the business scales.
Revenue is heavily concentrated in mainland China as a geography, and single wafer cleaning equipment along with related products account for approximately 69.5% of total revenue, creating meaningful idiosyncratic risk if either the geographic channel or the core product line contracts.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Single wafer cleaning and related product revenue falls below 55% of total over 2 consecutive reporting periods, demonstrating that the company is successfully diversifying its revenue base beyond its current primary category.
CounterLeading market share in a dominant and growing end-market can be a competitive advantage; a strong position in China's semiconductor equipment upgrade cycle may sustain elevated revenue concentration while still producing strong absolute growth.
Free cash flow is negative — running at -157% relative to net income — meaning the business is consuming cash even as it reports positive earnings, which limits financial flexibility and raises questions about the sustainability of current growth spending.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow relative to net income rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the company has transitioned to genuine cash generation alongside its reported profitability.
CounterNegative free cash flow in a high-growth equipment company often reflects necessary working capital investment and capacity build-out that supports future revenue; if growth converts efficiently into profitability, the cash deficit can narrow faster than the headline ratio suggests.
With only approximately 2.4% upside remaining to the near-term resistance target of $97.46 and a risk/reward ratio of 0.34-to-1, the current entry geometry does not clear the minimum threshold required for a new position.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback below $82 from the current $95.21 would restore more than 15% upside to the $97.46 target, improving the asymmetry sufficiently to reconsider a long entry.
CounterA strong earnings catalyst or sector re-rating could push resistance higher and re-anchor targets above $97.46; investors who wait for the pullback may miss a rapid breakout if the next print is materially ahead of estimates.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 6.3 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -157% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 3.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.77 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $11,012,423 (0.161% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.4 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 116%
- ▸Above max pain $35
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.28
Upside
-19.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.98>1.3
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Value at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Value at 3.9, Technical at 4.4, and Catalyst at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1With only approximately 2.4% upside remaining to the near-term resistance target of $97.46 and a risk/reward ratio of 0.34-to-1, the current entry geometry does not clear the minimum threshold required for a new position.
Trip ifStock pulls back below $82 from the current $95.21, restoring more than 15% upside to the $97.46 resistance target.
- P2The company posted revenue growth of 34% year-over-year, ranking it as an industry growth leader, which demonstrates strong demand for its wafer-cleaning equipment and positions it for continued market share capture in semiconductor front-end processing.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Revenue is heavily concentrated in mainland China as a geography, and single wafer cleaning equipment along with related products account for approximately 69.5% of total revenue, creating meaningful idiosyncratic risk if either the geographic channel or the core product line contracts.
Trip ifSingle wafer cleaning and related equipment revenue falls below 55% of total for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P4Free cash flow is negative — running at -157% relative to net income — meaning the business is consuming cash even as it reports positive earnings, which limits financial flexibility and raises questions about the sustainability of current growth spending.
Trip ifFree cash flow relative to net income rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.