Value
8.4/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
AAUC · Why this verdict
Why Allied Gold (AAUC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Allied Gold Corporation offers an attractive valuation entry alongside a constructive technical pullback in an ongoing uptrend — RSI at 39, volume accumulation, and position above the 200-day moving average — supported by an FCF margin of 24% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9; however, with only about 6% of headroom to the near-term $27.95 target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.86-to-1, the current setup favors patience over deploying new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock screens attractively valued on both price-to-sales and enterprise value multiples, offering the potential for meaningful re-rating if underlying fundamentals continue to improve. Bull case | Valuation multiples contract toward peers as improving cash flow metrics justify a higher multiple, or the stock price advances toward the $27.95 resistance target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn attractively valued stock can remain inexpensive for extended periods if there is no near-term catalyst to close the valuation gap; with no upcoming earnings date in the data and limited upside to the near-term target, the discount may persist absent a re-rating event. | ||
With the stock about 6% below the $27.95 near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.86-to-1, the current price does not offer compelling asymmetry, making the setup better suited for existing holders than new capital deployment. Price targets | A price pullback improves upside to the $27.95 target to above 12%, enhancing the reward-to-risk ratio to a more attractive level before adding exposure. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum gate has passed and the technical trend remains intact above the 200-day moving average; if the uptrend continues and the stock advances through the $27.95 target, waiting for a better entry could mean missing the bulk of the move. | ||
The stock's RSI has pulled back to 39 — near oversold territory — while remaining above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, presenting a technically constructive setup consistent with a healthy consolidation within an ongoing uptrend. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 50 over the next three to six months, on-balance volume continues its upward trend, and price advances toward the $27.95 resistance level. | →Stable |
| CounterA pullback in an uptrend can deepen into a trend reversal; if RSI continues lower from 39 and price breaks the 200-day moving average, what appears to be a constructive consolidation could become a more significant deterioration in the technical structure. | ||
The company generates free cash flow at a 24% FCF margin and a 9.9% FCF yield, supported by a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating a financially sound business with strong cash generation relative to its market value. Quality breakdown | FCF margin remains above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8/9 or higher over the next 12 months, confirming the durability of the company's financial health. | →Stable |
| CounterAn FCF margin of 24% and strong Piotroski score reflect current operational health, but with no competitive moat identified, the financial quality metrics may not be defensible if operating conditions become less favorable. | ||
The stock screens attractively valued on both price-to-sales and enterprise value multiples, offering the potential for meaningful re-rating if underlying fundamentals continue to improve.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Valuation multiples contract toward peers as improving cash flow metrics justify a higher multiple, or the stock price advances toward the $27.95 resistance target over the next 12 months.
CounterAn attractively valued stock can remain inexpensive for extended periods if there is no near-term catalyst to close the valuation gap; with no upcoming earnings date in the data and limited upside to the near-term target, the discount may persist absent a re-rating event.
With the stock about 6% below the $27.95 near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.86-to-1, the current price does not offer compelling asymmetry, making the setup better suited for existing holders than new capital deployment.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A price pullback improves upside to the $27.95 target to above 12%, enhancing the reward-to-risk ratio to a more attractive level before adding exposure.
CounterThe momentum gate has passed and the technical trend remains intact above the 200-day moving average; if the uptrend continues and the stock advances through the $27.95 target, waiting for a better entry could mean missing the bulk of the move.
The stock's RSI has pulled back to 39 — near oversold territory — while remaining above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, presenting a technically constructive setup consistent with a healthy consolidation within an ongoing uptrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 50 over the next three to six months, on-balance volume continues its upward trend, and price advances toward the $27.95 resistance level.
CounterA pullback in an uptrend can deepen into a trend reversal; if RSI continues lower from 39 and price breaks the 200-day moving average, what appears to be a constructive consolidation could become a more significant deterioration in the technical structure.
The company generates free cash flow at a 24% FCF margin and a 9.9% FCF yield, supported by a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating a financially sound business with strong cash generation relative to its market value.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin remains above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8/9 or higher over the next 12 months, confirming the durability of the company's financial health.
CounterAn FCF margin of 24% and strong Piotroski score reflect current operational health, but with no competitive moat identified, the financial quality metrics may not be defensible if operating conditions become less favorable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 8.4 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 9.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 24%, FCF yield 11.3%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+8.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Technical at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 1.5, Peer rank at 2.2, and Catalyst at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The stock screens attractively valued on both price-to-sales and enterprise value multiples, offering the potential for meaningful re-rating if underlying fundamentals continue to improve.
Trip ifPrice breaks above $27.95 for 5 consecutive sessions.
- P2The stock's RSI has pulled back to 39 — near oversold territory — while remaining above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, presenting a technically constructive setup consistent with a healthy consolidation within an ongoing uptrend.
Trip ifPrice falls below $24.00 for 3 consecutive sessions.
- P3The company generates free cash flow at a 24% FCF margin and a 9.9% FCF yield, supported by a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating a financially sound business with strong cash generation relative to its market value.
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P4With the stock about 6% below the $27.95 near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.86-to-1, the current price does not offer compelling asymmetry, making the setup better suited for existing holders than new capital deployment.
Trip ifPrice falls below $25.00 for 3 consecutive sessions while the $27.95 target holds.