Microsoft (MSFT) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $4.89
- Estimate
- $4.72
- Surprise
- +3.6%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $92.28B
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.0 → 6.1/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Microsoft (MSFT) beat the $4.72 estimate with adjusted EPS of $4.89 — a clear 3.6% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.0/10) to Hold at 6.1/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates MSFT Hold at 6.1/10.
4 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +3.6% surprise compares with a +6.5% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.6 in RISK_OFF)
- Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
What argues against it
- Thin upside margin: 4.8%
- Near 52-week high (3.7% away)
- Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $531.01
- Price target
- $556.71
- Stop
- $509.71
- Upside to target
- +4.8%
- Reward-to-risk
- 1.0:1
The stock trades at 29.6× trailing but 22.4× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-29 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
MSFT at TrendMatrix's latest read
Technology names get repriced on forward expectations more than trailing prints — a quarter here is read through next-year growth and multiple, not the EPS line alone.
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- Market cap
- $3943.04B
- P/E (fwd)
- 22.4
- P/E (ttm)
- 29.6
- 52-week range
- $349.20–$551.15
- Off 52-week high
- 3.7%
- RSI (14)
- 55
- Volume vs avg
- 1.42×
- Score today
- 6.1/10