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FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, ISell5.4·$13.63

First Watch Restaurant Group, I (FWRG) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage

BEAT+218.1% vs estimateEPS $0.10 vs $0.03 estCurrent verdict Sell 5.4/10

Reported

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy

Event detail · Q3 2026

Key numbers

Adjusted EPS
$0.10
Estimate
$0.03
Surprise
+218.1%
Revenue (period 2026-09-27)
$349.9M
Score today
5.4/10

Revenue source: xbrl.

Report record · Q3 2026

How the report landed

First Watch Restaurant Group, I (FWRG) beat the $0.03 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.10 — a large 218.1% upside surprise.

Around the report

Coverage in the report window

  • Stephens & Co. Reiterates Overweight on First Watch Restaurant Gr, Maintains $18 Price Target — benzinga, 2026-11-04
  • First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Reports Q3 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai, 2026-11-03
  • First Watch Restaurant Gr Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga, 2026-11-03
Current read · as of 2026-11-04

Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now

TrendMatrix currently rates FWRG Sell at 5.4/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.

2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +218.1% surprise compares with a +126.8% four-quarter average.

What argues against it

  • Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
  • Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.

Current engine read

The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks

Current price
$13.63
Price target
$15.92
Stop
$12.68
Upside to target
+16.8%
Reward-to-risk
1.1:1

Forward estimates sit below the trailing run-rate (54.6× forward vs 44.0× trailing) — consensus expects earnings to decline from here.

Risk check: trading volume is running 1.7× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.

Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-04 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.

Consumer Cyclical context

FWRG at TrendMatrix's latest read

Cyclical consumer names live and die on demand momentum — same-quarter comps and guidance carry more weight than the headline surprise.

Industry
Restaurants
Market cap
$841.1M
P/E (fwd)
54.6
P/E (ttm)
44.0
52-week range
$9.88–$18.77
Off 52-week high
27.4%
RSI (14)
66
Volume vs avg
1.70×
Score today
5.4/10

EPS and the estimate come from Yahoo Finance’s earnings calendar, captured around the report date. That EPS is the adjusted figure analysts forecast, so it can differ from the GAAP diluted EPS in the company’s filing, and consensus estimates vary between data providers. Revenue comes from SEC XBRL company facts where available, yfinance-provisional otherwise. Not a buy/sell rating, a price target, or investment advice — see the current verdict on the stock’s main page for TrendMatrix’s live read.

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