Value
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
VTOL · Why this verdict
Why Bristow Group (VTOL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bristow Group is an offshore helicopter services company with attractive valuation at a forward P/E of 8.2x and PEG of 0.22, generating 22% analyst upside to $52.70 with a favorable asymmetry ratio of 3.88, but recent negative news flow has downgraded the recommendation by one notch and two consecutive earnings misses highlight execution uncertainty.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Bristow trades at a forward P/E of 8.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.22 — placing it in the attractively valued tier relative to earnings growth expectations — with a value score of 8.8/10 and peer-relative P/E in the top 10% of its sector, suggesting the market is significantly discounting the earnings potential. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should expand toward 12x within 12 months as earnings consistency improves, implying a stock price above $55, above the current $43.13. | →Stable |
| CounterLow P/E multiples in offshore energy services companies reflect the cyclicality and capital intensity of the business; the sector has historically destroyed value during energy price downturns, and the low multiple is a structural feature rather than a discount. | ||
Analysts target $52.70 — representing 22.2% upside from the current $43.13 — with an asymmetry ratio of 3.88 (upside of 22.2% versus downside of only 5.7%), providing a favorable risk-reward structure even with the recent negative news modifier. Engine gate (passed) | Analyst price targets should remain above $48 over the next 12 months, and the stock should reach or exceed $50 within 12 months as earnings recover and the negative news event fades. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets in small-cap energy services companies are frequently stale and may not reflect the specific negative news event that triggered the recent recommendation downgrade; the real downside risk may be greater than the 5.7% implied stop-loss. | ||
The company has beaten earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with a dramatic 115% beat in Q3 2025, but also suffered a -49.65% miss in the most recent quarter — a volatile earnings profile where individual quarters can swing dramatically based on offshore activity levels and contract timing. Earnings | Earnings should beat or match consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, and EPS should remain above $0.50 per quarter to support the current low multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's -49.65% miss at $0.55 versus $1.10 expected is a severe miss that suggests the business may be experiencing a structural contract gap rather than a one-quarter timing issue. | ||
Recent negative news has triggered a -1 modifier that downgraded the recommendation from HOLD to SELL for existing holders, demonstrating that the fundamental investment case is being contested by current events even though the quantitative valuation metrics remain attractive. Warnings | The negative news signal should not persist beyond 60 days, and subsequent news flow over 3 months should be neutral or positive, allowing the news modifier to reset to 0 and the underlying valuation thesis to re-emerge. | →Stable |
| CounterNews modifiers are triggered by material company-specific events; the -1 news modifier may reflect operational, regulatory, or contract-loss news that has a lasting impact on the earnings trajectory, not a short-lived headline. | ||
Bristow trades at a forward P/E of 8.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.22 — placing it in the attractively valued tier relative to earnings growth expectations — with a value score of 8.8/10 and peer-relative P/E in the top 10% of its sector, suggesting the market is significantly discounting the earnings potential.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should expand toward 12x within 12 months as earnings consistency improves, implying a stock price above $55, above the current $43.13.
CounterLow P/E multiples in offshore energy services companies reflect the cyclicality and capital intensity of the business; the sector has historically destroyed value during energy price downturns, and the low multiple is a structural feature rather than a discount.
Analysts target $52.70 — representing 22.2% upside from the current $43.13 — with an asymmetry ratio of 3.88 (upside of 22.2% versus downside of only 5.7%), providing a favorable risk-reward structure even with the recent negative news modifier.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should remain above $48 over the next 12 months, and the stock should reach or exceed $50 within 12 months as earnings recover and the negative news event fades.
CounterAnalyst targets in small-cap energy services companies are frequently stale and may not reflect the specific negative news event that triggered the recent recommendation downgrade; the real downside risk may be greater than the 5.7% implied stop-loss.
The company has beaten earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with a dramatic 115% beat in Q3 2025, but also suffered a -49.65% miss in the most recent quarter — a volatile earnings profile where individual quarters can swing dramatically based on offshore activity levels and contract timing.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings should beat or match consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, and EPS should remain above $0.50 per quarter to support the current low multiple.
CounterThe most recent quarter's -49.65% miss at $0.55 versus $1.10 expected is a severe miss that suggests the business may be experiencing a structural contract gap rather than a one-quarter timing issue.
Recent negative news has triggered a -1 modifier that downgraded the recommendation from HOLD to SELL for existing holders, demonstrating that the fundamental investment case is being contested by current events even though the quantitative valuation metrics remain attractive.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The negative news signal should not persist beyond 60 days, and subsequent news flow over 3 months should be neutral or positive, allowing the news modifier to reset to 0 and the underlying valuation thesis to re-emerge.
CounterNews modifiers are triggered by material company-specific events; the -1 news modifier may reflect operational, regulatory, or contract-loss news that has a lasting impact on the earnings trajectory, not a short-lived headline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 42% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 9.4 |
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 5.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 51%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 6.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.3 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 5.3 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 117.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.37
Upside
+28.1%
Downside
6.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:4.4>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.1; weakest: Momentum at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Technical at 7.7, and Growth at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.9, Quality at 4.3, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Bristow trades at a forward P/E of 8.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.22 — placing it in the attractively valued tier relative to earnings growth expectations — with a value score of 8.8/10 and peer-relative P/E in the top 10% of its sector, suggesting the market is significantly discounting the earnings potential.
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 6x without an improvement in earnings estimates, indicating multiple compression rather than convergence to fair value.
- P2Analysts target $52.70 — representing 22.2% upside from the current $43.13 — with an asymmetry ratio of 3.88 (upside of 22.2% versus downside of only 5.7%), providing a favorable risk-reward structure even with the recent negative news modifier.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $40, more than 7% below the current price of $43.13.
- P3The company has beaten earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with a dramatic 115% beat in Q3 2025, but also suffered a -49.65% miss in the most recent quarter — a volatile earnings profile where individual quarters can swing dramatically based on offshore activity levels and contract timing.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Recent negative news has triggered a -1 modifier that downgraded the recommendation from HOLD to SELL for existing holders, demonstrating that the fundamental investment case is being contested by current events even though the quantitative valuation metrics remain attractive.
Trip ifNews modifier remains at negative 1 or declines further to negative 2 for more than 90 consecutive days, indicating the negative news has become a sustained fundamental impairment.