Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.53
- ▸Attractively valued
VSNT · Why this verdict
Why Versant Media Group (VSNT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Versant Media Group offers an attractively valued entertainment company at a forward P/E of 4.9x, PEG of 0.54, and 57% margin of safety, with best-in-class operating margins among peers, but the stock is in a confirmed negative momentum trend, has already reached the analyst price target, and has only 1 quarter of earnings history in the data — making this a deep-value setup waiting for a catalyst.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Versant Media trades at a forward P/E of 4.9x and a PEG of 0.54, with a margin of safety of 57% relative to intrinsic value estimates, while generating operating margins that rank best in class among entertainment peers — an unusual combination of value and margin quality in the sector. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should expand toward 7x within 12 months as the market rerates the stock toward peer multiples, implying a price appreciation of at least 30% from current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterEntertainment companies trading at sub-5x forward earnings typically carry structural headwinds such as declining linear TV subscribers, streaming competition, or content impairment risk that make the headline low multiple a value trap rather than a genuine discount. | ||
Revenue is declining at -1% annually, OBV (on-balance volume) is falling, and the momentum score is 2.6/10 — among the weakest readings in the universe — meaning the stock is in a deteriorating price trend despite the compelling valuation metrics. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should return to above 0% annually within the next 2 quarters, and the momentum score should recover above 4.0 within 6 months as selling pressure exhausts. | →Stable |
| CounterDeclining revenue in a media company is a structural rather than cyclical problem in the streaming era; the -1% decline may represent the early stage of accelerating deterioration rather than a temporary trough. | ||
The stock has already reached the analyst consensus target, with -3.2% negative upside implied at the current price of $38.94 — meaning the stock needs either an analyst target revision upward or a pullback to the $37.61 entry target to establish a favorable entry. Bear case | Analyst price targets should be revised upward above $44 within 12 months following evidence of revenue stabilization or earnings improvement, restoring positive upside from current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets for small entertainment companies with limited coverage (the sentiment notes show limited analyst visibility) are unreliable guides; a -3.2% negative upside at current prices with negative momentum creates an asymmetric risk of further downside. | ||
The dividend yield stands at a payout rate of 385% of earnings — an extreme level that implies either the dividend is funded by asset sales or borrowing, or the earnings base is depressed relative to actual cash generation and will normalize upward. Catalyst breakdown | If the dividend is maintained at current levels for 4 consecutive quarters, free cash flow coverage should recover to above 100% of the dividend payment, demonstrating that the payout is genuinely sustainable. | →Stable |
| CounterA 385% payout ratio is essentially indefensible as a sustainable dividend policy; even if management defends it short-term, the financial stress of maintaining an unsupported payout typically results in a cut within 12-18 months. | ||
Versant Media trades at a forward P/E of 4.9x and a PEG of 0.54, with a margin of safety of 57% relative to intrinsic value estimates, while generating operating margins that rank best in class among entertainment peers — an unusual combination of value and margin quality in the sector.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should expand toward 7x within 12 months as the market rerates the stock toward peer multiples, implying a price appreciation of at least 30% from current levels.
CounterEntertainment companies trading at sub-5x forward earnings typically carry structural headwinds such as declining linear TV subscribers, streaming competition, or content impairment risk that make the headline low multiple a value trap rather than a genuine discount.
Revenue is declining at -1% annually, OBV (on-balance volume) is falling, and the momentum score is 2.6/10 — among the weakest readings in the universe — meaning the stock is in a deteriorating price trend despite the compelling valuation metrics.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should return to above 0% annually within the next 2 quarters, and the momentum score should recover above 4.0 within 6 months as selling pressure exhausts.
CounterDeclining revenue in a media company is a structural rather than cyclical problem in the streaming era; the -1% decline may represent the early stage of accelerating deterioration rather than a temporary trough.
The stock has already reached the analyst consensus target, with -3.2% negative upside implied at the current price of $38.94 — meaning the stock needs either an analyst target revision upward or a pullback to the $37.61 entry target to establish a favorable entry.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be revised upward above $44 within 12 months following evidence of revenue stabilization or earnings improvement, restoring positive upside from current levels.
CounterAnalyst targets for small entertainment companies with limited coverage (the sentiment notes show limited analyst visibility) are unreliable guides; a -3.2% negative upside at current prices with negative momentum creates an asymmetric risk of further downside.
The dividend yield stands at a payout rate of 385% of earnings — an extreme level that implies either the dividend is funded by asset sales or borrowing, or the earnings base is depressed relative to actual cash generation and will normalize upward.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- If the dividend is maintained at current levels for 4 consecutive quarters, free cash flow coverage should recover to above 100% of the dividend payment, demonstrating that the payout is genuinely sustainable.
CounterA 385% payout ratio is essentially indefensible as a sustainable dividend policy; even if management defends it short-term, the financial stress of maintaining an unsupported payout typically results in a cut within 12-18 months.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.3 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.00
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 393.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (0.2% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.03
Upside
+0.2%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.9 and asymmetric R:R of 0.03.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Technical at 6.8, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 1.1, Momentum at 3.2, and Catalyst at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.03 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Versant Media trades at a forward P/E of 4.9x and a PEG of 0.54, with a margin of safety of 57% relative to intrinsic value estimates, while generating operating margins that rank best in class among entertainment peers — an unusual combination of value and margin quality in the sector.
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 3.5x without an improvement in earnings estimates, indicating further multiple compression rather than convergence to fair value.
- P2Revenue is declining at -1% annually, OBV (on-balance volume) is falling, and the momentum score is 2.6/10 — among the weakest readings in the universe — meaning the stock is in a deteriorating price trend despite the compelling valuation metrics.
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the decline rate is accelerating beyond the current -1%.
- P3The stock has already reached the analyst consensus target, with -3.2% negative upside implied at the current price of $38.94 — meaning the stock needs either an analyst target revision upward or a pullback to the $37.61 entry target to establish a favorable entry.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $35, more than 10% below the current price of $38.94.
- P4The dividend yield stands at a payout rate of 385% of earnings — an extreme level that implies either the dividend is funded by asset sales or borrowing, or the earnings base is depressed relative to actual cash generation and will normalize upward.
Trip ifDividend is cut by more than 30% below the current level, confirming the 385% payout ratio is unsustainable.