Value
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 43.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
UHAL-B · Why this verdict
Why U-Haul Holding Company Series N (UHAL-B) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
U-Haul Holding Company Series N non-voting shares score quality at 2.0 out of 10 with a severe negative free cash flow to net income ratio, trade above their analyst-implied resistance level with effectively zero upside, and have seen analyst estimates fall 41.2% in 30 days — presenting an unfavorable risk profile.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The Series N shares carry the same underlying business quality score of 2.0 — well below the minimum 4.0 floor — and a free cash flow to net income ratio of negative 2,056%, flagging a severe disconnect between reported earnings and cash generation. Quality breakdown | Underlying business quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as fleet investment matures and free cash flow normalizes | →Stable |
| CounterCapital-intensive rental fleet businesses structurally depress free cash flow during heavy investment cycles; the ratio may improve as capex moderates without requiring a fundamental business improvement | ||
The Series N shares currently trade at $55.05, which is already above the estimated resistance level of $54.88, leaving zero upside and negative asymmetry of 0.0 — meaning the price has run past any reasonable near-term target. Gates warning | Price pulls back below $52, creating at least 5% distance from resistance and restoring a positive asymmetry ratio | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum of 6.1 and RSI at 78 suggest buying pressure remains, and the series N structure may trade at a premium to common if preferred-dividend features attract income-focused buyers | ||
Analyst earnings estimates have been revised downward by 41.2% over the past 30 days, reflecting deteriorating near-term expectations for the underlying business and suggesting further downside risk to reported earnings. Catalyst breakdown | Analyst estimate revisions stabilize — meaning the 30-day revision trend stays above negative 10% — within 6 months | →Stable |
| CounterThe one out of four beat in the most recent quarter (beating a very low expectation) may indicate the earnings base is resetting at a level that future quarters can more reliably beat | ||
The dividend yield is flagged as a yield trap — appearing generous relative to price but assessed as unsustainable given the earnings quality concerns and negative free cash flow coverage — creating income risk for holders expecting reliable distributions. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage ratio improves to above 1.0 times earnings within 12 months as the business generates more consistent positive free cash flow | →Stable |
| CounterU-Haul's rental infrastructure generates recurring cash flows that may support dividends even when reported net income is volatile, and the company has maintained its dividend through prior cycles | ||
The Series N shares carry the same underlying business quality score of 2.0 — well below the minimum 4.0 floor — and a free cash flow to net income ratio of negative 2,056%, flagging a severe disconnect between reported earnings and cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Underlying business quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as fleet investment matures and free cash flow normalizes
CounterCapital-intensive rental fleet businesses structurally depress free cash flow during heavy investment cycles; the ratio may improve as capex moderates without requiring a fundamental business improvement
The Series N shares currently trade at $55.05, which is already above the estimated resistance level of $54.88, leaving zero upside and negative asymmetry of 0.0 — meaning the price has run past any reasonable near-term target.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- Price pulls back below $52, creating at least 5% distance from resistance and restoring a positive asymmetry ratio
CounterStrong momentum of 6.1 and RSI at 78 suggest buying pressure remains, and the series N structure may trade at a premium to common if preferred-dividend features attract income-focused buyers
Analyst earnings estimates have been revised downward by 41.2% over the past 30 days, reflecting deteriorating near-term expectations for the underlying business and suggesting further downside risk to reported earnings.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst estimate revisions stabilize — meaning the 30-day revision trend stays above negative 10% — within 6 months
CounterThe one out of four beat in the most recent quarter (beating a very low expectation) may indicate the earnings base is resetting at a level that future quarters can more reliably beat
The dividend yield is flagged as a yield trap — appearing generous relative to price but assessed as unsustainable given the earnings quality concerns and negative free cash flow coverage — creating income risk for holders expecting reliable distributions.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage ratio improves to above 1.0 times earnings within 12 months as the business generates more consistent positive free cash flow
CounterU-Haul's rental infrastructure generates recurring cash flows that may support dividends even when reported net income is volatile, and the company has maintained its dividend through prior cycles
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -2056% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.3 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 84)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 84 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
3.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-41.2%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸High IV: 120%
- ▸Above max pain $45
Catalyst
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Estimates down -41.2% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Momentum at 6.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.8, and Value at 5.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.0, Quality at 2.0, and Sentiment at 3.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The Series N shares carry the same underlying business quality score of 2.0 — well below the minimum 4.0 floor — and a free cash flow to net income ratio of negative 2,056%, flagging a severe disconnect between reported earnings and cash generation.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income stays below negative 1000% for more than 2 consecutive quarters
- P2The Series N shares currently trade at $55.05, which is already above the estimated resistance level of $54.88, leaving zero upside and negative asymmetry of 0.0 — meaning the price has run past any reasonable near-term target.
Trip ifPrice rises above $58, more than 5% above the current $55.05, further exceeding the resistance target
- P3Analyst earnings estimates have been revised downward by 41.2% over the past 30 days, reflecting deteriorating near-term expectations for the underlying business and suggesting further downside risk to reported earnings.
Trip ifAnalyst estimate revisions fall below negative 50% over any 30-day window
- P4The dividend yield is flagged as a yield trap — appearing generous relative to price but assessed as unsustainable given the earnings quality concerns and negative free cash flow coverage — creating income risk for holders expecting reliable distributions.
Trip ifDividend is cut by more than 20% from current levels or payout ratio rises above 150% of free cash flow