Value
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.8x
UFPT · Why this verdict
Why UFP Technologies (UFPT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
UFP Technologies has delivered earnings beats in all four consecutive recent quarters with an average surprise of 9.4%, reflecting improving execution in medical devices, though high short interest of 20% and elevated put/call ratio of 2.67 signal meaningful bearish positioning that must be worked through.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts collectively see 39% upside to the price target of $275.82 from the current price of $233.67, which at an asymmetry ratio of 1.78 just clears the minimum threshold, providing a moderate margin of safety if the earnings trend continues. Targets | Price advances toward $275 or higher within 12 months as earnings momentum sustains analyst target confidence | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is classified with no identified edge, and weak growth scores of 2.9 suggest the analyst targets may be stale if revenue growth remains low | ||
UFP Technologies has exceeded earnings estimates in every one of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 9.4%, indicating consistent outperformance versus analyst expectations in its medical device business. Earnings | The company beats or meets earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the streak and supporting the share price | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock carries no identified competitive moat, and weak revenue growth combined with below-average peer rank scores suggest the beat streak may reflect low starting estimates rather than durable outperformance | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.2 with MACD turning bullish and OBV accumulation, and the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average, suggesting positive price trend continuation in the near term. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and RSI stays above 50 for at least 6 of the next 12 months, confirming trend continuation | →Stable |
| CounterThe death cross is still recovering and momentum is only 7.2 on a scale, which could reverse if the broader medical device sector weakens | ||
A short interest of 20% of float creates a significant overhang on the stock, meaning that approximately one-fifth of shares are held by investors betting on price declines, which suppresses re-rating unless squeezed. Key risks | Short interest falls below 12% as continued earnings beats reduce the bear case and force short-covering over 12 months | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest can act as fuel for a short squeeze if earnings continue to beat, but it can also persist if the fundamental concerns around growth and moat remain unresolved | ||
Analysts collectively see 39% upside to the price target of $275.82 from the current price of $233.67, which at an asymmetry ratio of 1.78 just clears the minimum threshold, providing a moderate margin of safety if the earnings trend continues.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price advances toward $275 or higher within 12 months as earnings momentum sustains analyst target confidence
CounterThe stock is classified with no identified edge, and weak growth scores of 2.9 suggest the analyst targets may be stale if revenue growth remains low
UFP Technologies has exceeded earnings estimates in every one of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 9.4%, indicating consistent outperformance versus analyst expectations in its medical device business.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats or meets earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the streak and supporting the share price
CounterThe stock carries no identified competitive moat, and weak revenue growth combined with below-average peer rank scores suggest the beat streak may reflect low starting estimates rather than durable outperformance
Momentum is strong at 7.2 with MACD turning bullish and OBV accumulation, and the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average, suggesting positive price trend continuation in the near term.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and RSI stays above 50 for at least 6 of the next 12 months, confirming trend continuation
CounterThe death cross is still recovering and momentum is only 7.2 on a scale, which could reverse if the broader medical device sector weakens
A short interest of 20% of float creates a significant overhang on the stock, meaning that approximately one-fifth of shares are held by investors betting on price declines, which suppresses re-rating unless squeezed.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 12% as continued earnings beats reduce the bear case and force short-covering over 12 months
CounterHigh short interest can act as fuel for a short squeeze if earnings continue to beat, but it can also persist if the fundamental concerns around growth and moat remain unresolved
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 5.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 6.1 |
| Net margin | 5.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 78% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 2.3 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $922,126 (0.049% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| put call | 8.4 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸High short interest: 20%
- ▸Above max pain $120
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.72
Upside
+10.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.72 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.8, Momentum at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 2.9, Technical at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1UFP Technologies has exceeded earnings estimates in every one of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 9.4%, indicating consistent outperformance versus analyst expectations in its medical device business.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, ending the beat streak
- P2Momentum is strong at 7.2 with MACD turning bullish and OBV accumulation, and the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average, suggesting positive price trend continuation in the near term.
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below it for more than 30 days
- P3A short interest of 20% of float creates a significant overhang on the stock, meaning that approximately one-fifth of shares are held by investors betting on price declines, which suppresses re-rating unless squeezed.
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of float
- P4Analysts collectively see 39% upside to the price target of $275.82 from the current price of $233.67, which at an asymmetry ratio of 1.78 just clears the minimum threshold, providing a moderate margin of safety if the earnings trend continues.
Trip ifPrice falls below $210, more than 10% below the current $233.67, reducing the analyst upside ratio below 1.5