Value
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 39.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.19
TTAN · Why this verdict
Why ServiceTitan (TTAN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ServiceTitan has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 58% and 25% revenue growth, positioning it as a high-growth software company, but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross and 13% short interest create significant near-term technical headwinds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue growing at 25% year over year and a Rule of 40 score of 41 indicate the company is scaling efficiently, with free cash flow at 16% of revenue despite reporting a GAAP loss. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in the next reported annual period, confirming the growth trajectory. | →Stable |
| CounterThe concentration risk in the United States and Canada geographic market means a slowdown in North American construction and field-service spending could disproportionately impact growth. | ||
ServiceTitan has beaten analyst estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 57.6%, most recently reporting $0.37 against a $0.28 estimate, demonstrating the company's ability to outpace conservative Wall Street expectations. Earnings | The company continues beating earnings estimates by more than 20% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the beat streak. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high beat rates often reflect analysts anchoring estimates too low after prior misses; the 57% average surprise may compress toward zero as expectations catch up. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at negative 7.2% over 30 days, triggering a hard technical block that reflects broad institutional selling pressure regardless of fundamental quality. Momentum breakdown | The stock rises above its 200-day moving average and RSI exceeds 50 on a sustained basis within the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses in high-growth software stocks have historically been followed by sharp recoveries once earnings catalysts arrive, particularly when analyst targets imply 43% upside. | ||
A 13% short interest alongside implied volatility of 116% signals that many institutional investors are actively betting against the stock, increasing the risk of sharp moves in either direction around earnings or news events. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 8% over the next 12 months as the stock resolves its downtrend and short sellers cover positions. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated short interest with a put/call ratio of 0.61 and 116% implied volatility could amplify a short squeeze if the next earnings report again beats by a wide margin. | ||
Revenue growing at 25% year over year and a Rule of 40 score of 41 indicate the company is scaling efficiently, with free cash flow at 16% of revenue despite reporting a GAAP loss.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in the next reported annual period, confirming the growth trajectory.
CounterThe concentration risk in the United States and Canada geographic market means a slowdown in North American construction and field-service spending could disproportionately impact growth.
ServiceTitan has beaten analyst estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 57.6%, most recently reporting $0.37 against a $0.28 estimate, demonstrating the company's ability to outpace conservative Wall Street expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company continues beating earnings estimates by more than 20% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the beat streak.
CounterExtremely high beat rates often reflect analysts anchoring estimates too low after prior misses; the 57% average surprise may compress toward zero as expectations catch up.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at negative 7.2% over 30 days, triggering a hard technical block that reflects broad institutional selling pressure regardless of fundamental quality.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock rises above its 200-day moving average and RSI exceeds 50 on a sustained basis within the next 6 months.
CounterDeath crosses in high-growth software stocks have historically been followed by sharp recoveries once earnings catalysts arrive, particularly when analyst targets imply 43% upside.
A 13% short interest alongside implied volatility of 116% signals that many institutional investors are actively betting against the stock, increasing the risk of sharp moves in either direction around earnings or news events.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% over the next 12 months as the stock resolves its downtrend and short sellers cover positions.
CounterElevated short interest with a put/call ratio of 0.61 and 116% implied volatility could amplify a short squeeze if the next earnings report again beats by a wide margin.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 16%, FCF yield 2.7%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 41 (pass)
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.7 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 68%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $986,050 (0.016% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 0.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 1.6 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| debt equity | 1.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.77
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.69
Upside
+50.8%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.3, Sentiment at 8.2, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.1, Momentum at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.69 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1ServiceTitan has beaten analyst estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 57.6%, most recently reporting $0.37 against a $0.28 estimate, demonstrating the company's ability to outpace conservative Wall Street expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, signaling mean reversion in beat rates.
- P2Revenue growing at 25% year over year and a Rule of 40 score of 41 indicate the company is scaling efficiently, with free cash flow at 16% of revenue despite reporting a GAAP loss.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year in any reported period over the next 12 months.
- P3The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at negative 7.2% over 30 days, triggering a hard technical block that reflects broad institutional selling pressure regardless of fundamental quality.
Trip ifStock price drops below $55, more than 20% below the current $68.80, confirming accelerating downside.
- P4A 13% short interest alongside implied volatility of 116% signals that many institutional investors are actively betting against the stock, increasing the risk of sharp moves in either direction around earnings or news events.
Trip ifShort interest rises above 18% of the float within the next 6 months.