Value
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.09
TDY · Why this verdict
Why Teledyne Technologies Incorpora (TDY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Teledyne Technologies has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.9%, carries a maximum Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, and receives positive news sentiment — but at $628 per share the stock is priced at a forward price-to-earnings of 24.1 times with only 2% measured upside to the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The digital imaging segment contributes 52% of Teledyne's revenue — a concentration that creates amplified exposure to cycles in space, defense, and industrial imaging spending, as noted in the 10-K risk factors. Bear case | Digital imaging segment revenue share diversifies below 45% or the segment grows faster than 10% per year, demonstrating both concentration reduction and segment strength. | →Stable |
| CounterDominant positioning in a high-barrier defense and scientific imaging market is a source of competitive advantage; diversification into medical and industrial imaging can offset any defense program timing volatility. | ||
Teledyne carries a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum achievable rating — reflecting excellence across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics simultaneously, an uncommon distinction among diversified instrumentation companies. Quality breakdown | Piotroski financial health score remains at 8 or above over the next four reported quarters, sustaining the exceptional balance sheet quality. | →Stable |
| CounterThe digital imaging segment represents 52% of revenues, meaning a single-segment concentration risk could rapidly erode the Piotroski score if that segment faces demand softness from semiconductor or defense budget cycles. | ||
Teledyne has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.9%, demonstrating consistent operational execution relative to analyst expectations across the instrumentation and defense electronics cycle. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays above 3% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat cadence. | →Stable |
| CounterThe individual quarterly beats are relatively modest at 1.8% to 16.8%; this is a consistent but not dramatic beat pattern that can be disrupted by modest execution misses or estimate ratcheting. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 24.1 times with only 2% measured upside to the analyst target of $641, Teledyne offers minimal near-term price appreciation potential — a risk-to-reward ratio of just 0.38 where downside to the stop-loss at $594.78 is 5.3%. Targets | Analyst consensus target rises above $700, representing at least 11% upside from the current $628, following strong upcoming earnings delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterPrecision instrumentation and defense electronics companies can sustain premium valuations for extended periods when execution is consistent; the 9 out of 9 Piotroski quality at 24 times forward earnings may be a justified premium rather than a risk. | ||
The digital imaging segment contributes 52% of Teledyne's revenue — a concentration that creates amplified exposure to cycles in space, defense, and industrial imaging spending, as noted in the 10-K risk factors.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Digital imaging segment revenue share diversifies below 45% or the segment grows faster than 10% per year, demonstrating both concentration reduction and segment strength.
CounterDominant positioning in a high-barrier defense and scientific imaging market is a source of competitive advantage; diversification into medical and industrial imaging can offset any defense program timing volatility.
Teledyne carries a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum achievable rating — reflecting excellence across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics simultaneously, an uncommon distinction among diversified instrumentation companies.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski financial health score remains at 8 or above over the next four reported quarters, sustaining the exceptional balance sheet quality.
CounterThe digital imaging segment represents 52% of revenues, meaning a single-segment concentration risk could rapidly erode the Piotroski score if that segment faces demand softness from semiconductor or defense budget cycles.
Teledyne has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.9%, demonstrating consistent operational execution relative to analyst expectations across the instrumentation and defense electronics cycle.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays above 3% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat cadence.
CounterThe individual quarterly beats are relatively modest at 1.8% to 16.8%; this is a consistent but not dramatic beat pattern that can be disrupted by modest execution misses or estimate ratcheting.
At a forward price-to-earnings of 24.1 times with only 2% measured upside to the analyst target of $641, Teledyne offers minimal near-term price appreciation potential — a risk-to-reward ratio of just 0.38 where downside to the stop-loss at $594.78 is 5.3%.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target rises above $700, representing at least 11% upside from the current $628, following strong upcoming earnings delivery.
CounterPrecision instrumentation and defense electronics companies can sustain premium valuations for extended periods when execution is consistent; the 9 out of 9 Piotroski quality at 24 times forward earnings may be a justified premium rather than a risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 7.6 |
| Net margin | 7.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 6.3 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.64 (n=2)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $480
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.33
Upside
+1.9%
Downside
5.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.33 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.4, Technical at 4.4, and Value at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Teledyne carries a Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum achievable rating — reflecting excellence across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics simultaneously, an uncommon distinction among diversified instrumentation companies.
Trip ifPiotroski financial health score falls below 7 in any reported period, more than 2 points below the current perfect 9.
- P2Teledyne has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.9%, demonstrating consistent operational execution relative to analyst expectations across the instrumentation and defense electronics cycle.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, ending the current beat streak.
- P3The digital imaging segment contributes 52% of Teledyne's revenue — a concentration that creates amplified exposure to cycles in space, defense, and industrial imaging spending, as noted in the 10-K risk factors.
Trip ifDigital imaging segment revenue declines by more than 15% year-over-year in any reported quarter.
- P4At a forward price-to-earnings of 24.1 times with only 2% measured upside to the analyst target of $641, Teledyne offers minimal near-term price appreciation potential — a risk-to-reward ratio of just 0.38 where downside to the stop-loss at $594.78 is 5.3%.
Trip ifStock price rises above $660, more than 5% above the current $628.34, without a corresponding analyst target increase above $700.