Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.49
SYK · Why this verdict
Why Stryker (SYK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Stryker Corporation combines a near-perfect financial quality score with 13% analyst upside potential from $308, but a confirmed technical downtrend marked by a death cross and price below the 200-day moving average represents a meaningful timing risk that investors must weigh before establishing or adding to a position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 131% of net income signal that Stryker's balance sheet and cash generation are among the strongest in the medical device sector. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 over the next four reported periods, and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh financial quality scores at current elevated valuations (forward price-to-earnings of 18.4x) reflect historical excellence rather than forward catalyst; quality alone does not stop a price decline during a downtrend. | ||
Analysts price the stock at an average target implying 26% upside from the current price of $308, and the take-profit target of $348 sits 13% above the current level, suggesting meaningful re-rating potential if the downtrend reverses. Sentiment breakdown | The stock reaches at least $335 within 12 months, representing more than 8% appreciation from current levels and moving toward the consensus analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets during a confirmed downtrend are often stale and get revised downward before the price recovers; the 26% consensus upside may narrow substantially in the next revision cycle. | ||
A death cross has formed with price below the 200-day moving average on a slope of negative 3.4% per month, falling on-balance volume, and an RSI of only 46, confirming the stock is in a downtrend rather than a temporary pullback. V9 | The death cross resolves into a golden cross within 9 months, with price rising above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turning positive. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath cross formations in high-quality large-cap medical device companies are frequently temporary and driven by macro rotation rather than company-specific deterioration, making the recovery faster than the pattern suggests. | ||
MedSurg and Neurotechnology products account for 62% of revenues, meaning that any regulatory, recall, or market share loss in these segments would disproportionately affect total company results. Bear case | MedSurg and Neurotechnology combined revenue grows by at least 5% over the next 12 months, maintaining the segment's contribution without adverse concentration effects. | →Stable |
| CounterProduct concentration in the highest-margin segments reflects strategic investment in competitive strengths rather than vulnerability; the segments also benefit from strong recurring procedure volumes. | ||
A perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 131% of net income signal that Stryker's balance sheet and cash generation are among the strongest in the medical device sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 over the next four reported periods, and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income.
CounterHigh financial quality scores at current elevated valuations (forward price-to-earnings of 18.4x) reflect historical excellence rather than forward catalyst; quality alone does not stop a price decline during a downtrend.
Analysts price the stock at an average target implying 26% upside from the current price of $308, and the take-profit target of $348 sits 13% above the current level, suggesting meaningful re-rating potential if the downtrend reverses.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches at least $335 within 12 months, representing more than 8% appreciation from current levels and moving toward the consensus analyst target.
CounterAnalyst targets during a confirmed downtrend are often stale and get revised downward before the price recovers; the 26% consensus upside may narrow substantially in the next revision cycle.
A death cross has formed with price below the 200-day moving average on a slope of negative 3.4% per month, falling on-balance volume, and an RSI of only 46, confirming the stock is in a downtrend rather than a temporary pullback.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- The death cross resolves into a golden cross within 9 months, with price rising above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turning positive.
CounterDeath cross formations in high-quality large-cap medical device companies are frequently temporary and driven by macro rotation rather than company-specific deterioration, making the recovery faster than the pattern suggests.
MedSurg and Neurotechnology products account for 62% of revenues, meaning that any regulatory, recall, or market share loss in these segments would disproportionately affect total company results.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- MedSurg and Neurotechnology combined revenue grows by at least 5% over the next 12 months, maintaining the segment's contribution without adverse concentration effects.
CounterProduct concentration in the highest-margin segments reflects strategic investment in competitive strengths rather than vulnerability; the segments also benefit from strong recurring procedure volumes.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 7.1 |
| Net margin | 6.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 9.4 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 131% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $100,660,834 (0.084% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 5.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.6 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 112.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.94
Upside
+8.6%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.94 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0, Sentiment at 7.8, and Quality at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Peer rank at 3.0, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 131% of net income signal that Stryker's balance sheet and cash generation are among the strongest in the medical device sector.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in any reported period, indicating deterioration of more than 2 points from the current score of 9.
- P2Analysts price the stock at an average target implying 26% upside from the current price of $308, and the take-profit target of $348 sits 13% above the current level, suggesting meaningful re-rating potential if the downtrend reverses.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $300, representing a downward revision of more than 10% from the current implied target near $348.
- P3A death cross has formed with price below the 200-day moving average on a slope of negative 3.4% per month, falling on-balance volume, and an RSI of only 46, confirming the stock is in a downtrend rather than a temporary pullback.
Trip ifPrice remains below the 200-day moving average for more than 6 consecutive months without any sign of the slope flattening above negative 1% per 30 days.
- P4MedSurg and Neurotechnology products account for 62% of revenues, meaning that any regulatory, recall, or market share loss in these segments would disproportionately affect total company results.
Trip ifMedSurg and Neurotechnology combined segment revenue declines by more than 3% in any single reported quarter compared to the same quarter the prior year.