Value
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 31.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
NEO · Why this verdict
Why NeoGenomics (NEO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NeoGenomics is an oncology diagnostics company trading at a compelling 18% potential upside relative to analyst price targets, but weak quality metrics and an unfavorable risk/reward profile at current levels make the investment speculative until margin improvement materializes.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
NeoGenomics generates positive free cash flow with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, signaling strong balance-sheet health even amid thin margins, and analysts see roughly 36% upside to their consensus target. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin improves above 6% and revenue growth accelerates above 10% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating and net margins are near zero, and FCF yield of 2.3% is too thin to support meaningful reinvestment or shareholder returns. | ||
NeoGenomics has beaten or matched earnings estimates in each of the last three reported quarters, with an average surprise of over 200%, suggesting consistent execution versus investor expectations. Earnings | The company continues to meet or beat consensus EPS in the next two quarterly reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe outsized average surprise is distorted by a single 800% beat, and underlying beat consistency is not established over a long track record. | ||
With a PEG ratio of 0.21 and a forward P/E of 30x, NeoGenomics is priced at a moderate premium to growth that appears justified if earnings continue to expand, making it attractively valued relative to its growth trajectory. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth sustains above 20% annually so the PEG ratio remains below 0.5 over the next year. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 30x is expensive in absolute terms for a company with near-zero operating margins and a sub-$2B market cap. | ||
The stock's current risk/reward setup shows only 18% upside against 15% downside, and the momentum score of 4.6 is barely above the minimum threshold, limiting near-term entry conviction. Warnings | Price momentum score rises above 5.5 and the asymmetry ratio climbs above 1.5 within 12 months as earnings improve. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at 70 signals near-term overbought conditions, and falling on-balance volume indicates distribution rather than accumulation. | ||
NeoGenomics generates positive free cash flow with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, signaling strong balance-sheet health even amid thin margins, and analysts see roughly 36% upside to their consensus target.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin improves above 6% and revenue growth accelerates above 10% over the next 12 months.
CounterOperating and net margins are near zero, and FCF yield of 2.3% is too thin to support meaningful reinvestment or shareholder returns.
NeoGenomics has beaten or matched earnings estimates in each of the last three reported quarters, with an average surprise of over 200%, suggesting consistent execution versus investor expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company continues to meet or beat consensus EPS in the next two quarterly reporting periods.
CounterThe outsized average surprise is distorted by a single 800% beat, and underlying beat consistency is not established over a long track record.
With a PEG ratio of 0.21 and a forward P/E of 30x, NeoGenomics is priced at a moderate premium to growth that appears justified if earnings continue to expand, making it attractively valued relative to its growth trajectory.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth sustains above 20% annually so the PEG ratio remains below 0.5 over the next year.
CounterA forward P/E of 30x is expensive in absolute terms for a company with near-zero operating margins and a sub-$2B market cap.
The stock's current risk/reward setup shows only 18% upside against 15% downside, and the momentum score of 4.6 is barely above the minimum threshold, limiting near-term entry conviction.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Price momentum score rises above 5.5 and the asymmetry ratio climbs above 1.5 within 12 months as earnings improve.
CounterRSI at 70 signals near-term overbought conditions, and falling on-balance volume indicates distribution rather than accumulation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 3.9 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 2.2%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.0x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 6.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $59,916 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.1 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 4.6 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.0 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸High IV: 98%
- ▸Above max pain $1
Catalyst
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.10
Upside
+1.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.81>1.3, MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Momentum at 8.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.2, Catalyst at 8.1, and Growth at 7.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Quality at 3.5, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1NeoGenomics generates positive free cash flow with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, signaling strong balance-sheet health even amid thin margins, and analysts see roughly 36% upside to their consensus target.
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 2% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2NeoGenomics has beaten or matched earnings estimates in each of the last three reported quarters, with an average surprise of over 200%, suggesting consistent execution versus investor expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P3With a PEG ratio of 0.21 and a forward P/E of 30x, NeoGenomics is priced at a moderate premium to growth that appears justified if earnings continue to expand, making it attractively valued relative to its growth trajectory.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 40x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth above 30%.
- P4The stock's current risk/reward setup shows only 18% upside against 15% downside, and the momentum score of 4.6 is barely above the minimum threshold, limiting near-term entry conviction.
Trip ifPrice drops below $10.31 stop-loss level or RSI rises above 80 without subsequent pullback.