Value
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| PEG | 3.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸PEG: 3.92
NBTX · Why this verdict
Why Nanobiotix (NBTX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nanobiotix is a clinical-stage biotechnology company with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, rising trading volume, and positive momentum, but the business quality score sits below the minimum investable threshold at 3.5 out of 10, the stock has essentially zero upside to the analyst price target at just 0.5%, and the risk-reward is deeply unfavorable at 0.07.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company's overall quality score of 3.5 out of 10 sits below the minimum investable threshold, driven by zero operating and net margin scores, a negative free cash flow at 24% of revenue, and weak returns — indicating the business is not yet self-sustaining. Bear case | Quality score rises above 4.5 within the next 12 months as the company makes progress toward a positive operating margin. | →Stable |
| CounterClinical-stage biotechnology companies typically have low quality scores by definition; the relevant metric is pipeline progress and regulatory milestones rather than current profitability. | ||
With only 0.5% upside to the analyst price target and a risk-reward ratio of 0.07, the current price offers virtually no margin of safety relative to fundamental fair value, making new entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis. Targets | Analyst price targets are revised upward by at least 25% within the next 12 months, creating a more favorable entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterIf a clinical trial readout is positive, analyst targets could be revised dramatically upward — the 0.5% gap to current targets may not reflect the binary upside from pipeline success. | ||
Nanobiotix has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent reported quarters, with an average positive earnings surprise of 74.9%, suggesting that management's guidance or consensus analyst models consistently underestimate the company's near-term results. Catalyst breakdown | The company continues to beat consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports. | →Stable |
| CounterAll 4 historical beats occurred on the same reporting date of April 7, 2022, suggesting the earnings history may reflect data anomalies rather than a genuine multi-year track record of outperformance. | ||
Rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.2 with an RSI near 38 — historically a buy-opportunity level — suggest that institutional accumulation may be building ahead of a potential catalyst. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score remains above 5.5 and on-balance volume continues rising over the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRising volume in a clinical-stage biotechnology stock can reflect speculative retail activity rather than institutional conviction, and the RSI at 38 may reflect a structurally weak company rather than an oversold opportunity. | ||
The company's overall quality score of 3.5 out of 10 sits below the minimum investable threshold, driven by zero operating and net margin scores, a negative free cash flow at 24% of revenue, and weak returns — indicating the business is not yet self-sustaining.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.5 within the next 12 months as the company makes progress toward a positive operating margin.
CounterClinical-stage biotechnology companies typically have low quality scores by definition; the relevant metric is pipeline progress and regulatory milestones rather than current profitability.
With only 0.5% upside to the analyst price target and a risk-reward ratio of 0.07, the current price offers virtually no margin of safety relative to fundamental fair value, making new entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by at least 25% within the next 12 months, creating a more favorable entry point.
CounterIf a clinical trial readout is positive, analyst targets could be revised dramatically upward — the 0.5% gap to current targets may not reflect the binary upside from pipeline success.
Nanobiotix has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent reported quarters, with an average positive earnings surprise of 74.9%, suggesting that management's guidance or consensus analyst models consistently underestimate the company's near-term results.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company continues to beat consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
CounterAll 4 historical beats occurred on the same reporting date of April 7, 2022, suggesting the earnings history may reflect data anomalies rather than a genuine multi-year track record of outperformance.
Rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.2 with an RSI near 38 — historically a buy-opportunity level — suggest that institutional accumulation may be building ahead of a potential catalyst.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score remains above 5.5 and on-balance volume continues rising over the next 6 months.
CounterRising volume in a clinical-stage biotechnology stock can reflect speculative retail activity rather than institutional conviction, and the RSI at 38 may reflect a structurally weak company rather than an oversold opportunity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -24% of revenue
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 0.4 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 2.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.5 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:96d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.68
Upside
+10.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.4, Peer rank at 2.8, and Quality at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Nanobiotix has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent reported quarters, with an average positive earnings surprise of 74.9%, suggesting that management's guidance or consensus analyst models consistently underestimate the company's near-term results.
Trip ifThe company misses consensus EPS estimates by more than 30% in 2 or more of the next 4 quarterly reports.
- P2The company's overall quality score of 3.5 out of 10 sits below the minimum investable threshold, driven by zero operating and net margin scores, a negative free cash flow at 24% of revenue, and weak returns — indicating the business is not yet self-sustaining.
Trip ifQuality score remains below 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters without a clear improvement trajectory.
- P3Rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.2 with an RSI near 38 — historically a buy-opportunity level — suggest that institutional accumulation may be building ahead of a potential catalyst.
Trip ifMomentum score drops below 4.0 or on-balance volume declines for 3 consecutive months.
- P4With only 0.5% upside to the analyst price target and a risk-reward ratio of 0.07, the current price offers virtually no margin of safety relative to fundamental fair value, making new entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
Trip ifUpside to analyst price target remains below 5% after the next quarterly earnings report and analyst revision cycle.